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Incentives for Supply Adequacy in Electricity Markets: An Application to the Mexican Power Sector
Carreón-Rodríguez, Víctor G.;Rosellón, Juan;
Economía mexicana. Nueva época , 2009,
Abstract: this paper studies resource adequacy, i.e. the market design dilemma of ensuring enough generation capacity in the long run. international experiences have shown that it is difficult that the market alone provides incentives to attract enough investment in capacity reserves. we analyze various measures to cope with this problem, including moth-ball reserves, capacity payments, icap and call options. we then construct a model to analyze the structure of incentives for the expansion of electricity supply in the spot market, and capacity in the long run electricity reserve market. through a game-theory model, we analyze price convergence in three markets: the peak spot market, the non-peak spot market, and the long-run capacity reserve market. we finally carry out a simulation for mexican power generation. the combination of cfe's virtual market, together with capacity payments, has eventually resulted in capacity generation expansion similar to what would be attained in an open electricity market, such as the one modelled in our study. but this does not necessarily imply that the mexican electricity industry will not need in the future -if the generation market is fully open to private investment- some of the discussed capacity incentive mechanisms.
Incentives for Supply Adequacy in Electricity Markets. An Application to the Mexican Power Sector
Víctor G. Carreón-Rodríguez,Juan Rosellón
Economía Mexicana , 2009,
Abstract: Este artículo estudia el tema de resource adequacy, esto es, el dilema de dise o de mercado para asegurar capacidad de generación suficiente en el largo plazo. Las experiencias internacionales han demostrado que es difícil que el mercado, por sí mismo, provea incentivos suficientes para atraer inversión en reservas de capacidad. Analizamos varias medidas para lidiar con este problema, incluyendo reservas moth-ball, pagos por capacidad, icap y call options. Elaboramos después un modelo para analizar la estructura de incentivos para la expansión de la oferta de electricidad en el mercado spot, así como de la oferta de capacidad en el mercado de reservas de electricidad de largo plazo. Mediante un modelo de teoría de juegos, analizamos la convergencia de precios en tres mercados: el mercado spot "pico", el mercado spot no pico, y el mercado de reservas de capacidad de largo plazo. Finalmente, efectuamos una simulación para la generación de electricidad en México. La combinación del mercado virtual de cfe junto con los pagos de capacidad, eventualmente ha resultado en una expansión de la capacidad de generación similar a la que se hubiera obtenido en un mercado de electricidad abierto, tal como el que modelamos en nuestro estudio. Pero esto no necesariamente implica que la industria eléctrica mexicana no necesitará en el futuro -si el mercado de generación se abre totalmente a la inversión privada- de algunos de los mecanismos de incentivos a la capacidad que se discuten en este estudio.
Identificación de estados de salud y su relación con características socioeconómicas y geográficas: análisis de una encuesta poblacional en México
Vargas-Palacios,Armando; Gutiérrez,Juan Pablo; Carreón-Rodríguez,Víctor;
Salud Pública de México , 2006, DOI: 10.1590/S0036-36342006000600006
Abstract: objective: to estimate the effectiveness of using standardized health vignettes to adjust self-reported health taking into account household and community variables to correct for systematic bias. material and methods: the national health survey "evaluación del desempe?o 2002" (mexican component of the world health survey) was used. this survey analyzed subject's health perception based on their responses to hypothetical questions referring to third parties in the vignettes within eight domains. variations in responses were attributed to socio-demographic, socioeconomic, community, differences of the subjects. to assess those variations, an index for each domain was constructed and used as a variable in a series of linear regression models to estimate the relation between health perceptions, self-reported health, socioeconomic and socio-demographic characteristics. results: the health perception index derived from the vignettes showed a positive, logarithmic correlation with household expenditure for each health domain, after controlling for socio-demographic, health and community characteristics. no relationship was found between the health status described in the vignettes and self-reported health status. in no case was the explanatory power above 10%. conclusion: the low explanatory power of the models, and the lack of correlation between self reported health status and the health perception index, suggest that the variability in the vignettes responses cannot be explained by differences in self-reported health status or socioeconomic and socio-demographic characteristics. these results from mexico suggest that vignette-based methods to correct for systematic variability in perception of own health status are of limited efficacy and reinforce the importance of collecting objective measures of health status in health surveys.
El comportamiento de la demanda de tabaco en México: 1992-1998
Sesma-Vázquez Sergio,Campuzano-Rincón Julio César,Carreón-Rodríguez Víctor Gerardo,Knaul Felicia
Salud Pública de México , 2002,
Abstract: Objetivo. Describir el comportamiento de la demanda de tabaco en México para cuatro momentos en el tiempo: 1992, 1994, 1996 y 1998, y adicionalmente estimar una función de demanda de cigarrillos. Material y métodos. Se realizó un estudio transversal con análisis longitudinal, tomando como fuentes de información la Encuesta Nacional de Ingreso y Gasto de los Hogares (ENIGH) y la lista de precios de los cigarrillos de la Procuraduría Federal del Consumidor (Profeco). El gasto, el ingreso y los precios se deflactaron a precios de 1994. Se estratificó a la población en quintiles de ingreso real, y solamente se tomaron en cuenta las áreas rurales y urbanas. Se construyeron indicadores para el consumo diario de cigarrillos y cajetillas y se calcularon los precios por cajetilla. Se calculó la prevalencia ajustada. Mediante análisis de regresión logísticos y lineales se estableció la inferencia estadística. Se estimó una función de demanda de cigarrillos mediante una regresión lineal multivariada, para encontrar los determinantes socioeconómicos del consumo de cigarrillos. Resultados. La prevalencia ajustada de los hogares que reportaron algún gasto en tabaco disminuyó de 22.4 a 9.9% entre 1992 y 1998. Los hogares asignaron poco más de 4% de su ingreso a la adquisición de tabaco. Se observó un gradiente entre nivel de ingreso y gasto en cigarrillos. El quintil I (el más pobre) destinó una mayor proporción de su ingreso que los quintiles superiores. El promedio de cigarrillos consumidos diariamente pasó de 7.5 a 9.8 entre 1992 y 1998. Se estimó que más de 90% de los "hogares fumadores" consumió hasta una cajetilla diaria. La demanda estimada de cigarrillos sin filtro aumentó entre 1992 a 1998, pasando de 0.4 a 4.8%, registrándose así el mayor incremento en 1996. Finalmente, se encontró que, tanto los precios como el ingreso, fueron los determinantes más importantes del gasto en tabaco. Conclusiones. Una política de precios podría favorecer la reducción de la demanda y, por ende, mejorar las expectativas de salud de la población.
Trasplante de células progenitoras hematopoyéticas en síndromes mielodisplásicos
León-Rodríguez, Eucario;
Revista de investigación clínica , 2005,
Abstract: myelodisplastic syndromes (mds) are clonal hematopoietic disorders, characterized by ineffective hemopoiesis resulting in single or multiple lineages and a high risk of conversion to acute leukemia. currently, the only established therapy with curative potential for mds is a hemopoietic stem cell transplant (hsct). their results are determined by the type of mds, age at the bmt and the score according to the international index. in the main studies the disease-free survival (dfs) were 35-43%, relapse 20 to 39% and transplantation-related mortality (trm) 36-45%. hsct offers best results in goods prognosis mds (refractory anemia, refractory anemia with ring sideroblasts) with dfs of 53-72% and 13% of relapse, in contrast with the advanced mds (refractory anemia with blast in excess (areb), areb in transformation and secondary acute leukemia) where the dfs is about 33%, the relapse 23-34% and mrt 37-60%. the hsct from unrelated donor is an option for patients that do not an hla-matched related donor, with a 30% of dfs, but with a mrt up to 58%. the hsct with regimens of low intensity (minitransplants) for aged patients are feasible but their efficacy has not yet been determined.
El comportamiento de la demanda de tabaco en México: 1992-1998
Sesma-Vázquez,Sergio; Campuzano-Rincón,Julio César; Carreón-Rodríguez,Víctor Gerardo; Knaul,Felicia; López-Antu?ano,Francisco Javier; Hernández-Avila,Mauricio;
Salud Pública de México , 2002, DOI: 10.1590/S0036-36342002000700013
Abstract: objective. this paper aims at describing the behavior of tobacco's demand in mexico across four one-year periods: 1992, 1994, 1996, and 1998, as well as to estimate a cigarette demand function. material and methods. a cross-sectional study with longitudinal analysis was conducted. information sources were the encuesta nacional de ingreso y gasto de los hogares (enigh) (national survey of household income and spending) (nhsis) and the tobacco pack prices reported by the procuraduría federal del consumidor (profeco) (federal office of consumer's protection) (focp). spending, income, and prices were deflated to 1994 prices; the population was stratified into quintiles of real income, by rural and urban areas. indicators of daily consumption of cigarettes and packs were constructed and prices per pack calculated. adjusted prevalence figures were estimated. logistic and linear regression models were used for statistical inference; a cigarette demand function was estimated using multivariate logistic regression, to find socioeconomic determinants of cigarette consumption. results. the adjusted prevalence of household tobacco spending fell from 22.4 to 9.9% between 1992 and 1998. households allocated more than 4% of their income to tobacco consumption. a trend between income level and cigarette spending was observed, with the first quintile (the poorest population) allocated a greater share of their income than higher quintiles. the average daily consumption of cigarettes increased from 7.5 to 9.8 between 1992 and 1998. it was estimated that 90% of "smoker homes" consumed up to one package per day. the proportion of non-filter cigarettes increased from 0.4 to 4.8% between 1992-1998, with a bigger increase in 1996. finally, it was found that the most important determinants of spending were prices and income. conclusions. policies focusing on tobacco prices would help to reduce tobacco consumption and improve the health of the mexican population.
Lesión de médula espinal y medicina regenerativa
Estrada-Mondaca,Sandino; Carreón-Rodríguez,Alfonso; Parra-Cid,María del Carmen; León,Clemente Ibarra-Ponce de; Velasquillo-Martínez,Cristina; Vacanti,Charles A.; Belkind-Gerson,Jaime;
Salud Pública de México , 2007, DOI: 10.1590/S0036-36342007000600011
Abstract: spinal cord injury (sci) is a trauma problem striking mainly working age adults, therefore affecting society beyond the victim?s family circle. most of the victims of sci will never recover; therapy for this type of injury consists basically on spinal cord support and stabilization. with the discovery of stem cells (sc), sci treatment has been given another chance. stem cells are responsible for tissue renewal throughout the individual?s life, as well as tissue repair when needed. from the therapeutic point of view, the most appealing sc are those capable of generating a variety of tissues, those easily harvested, and finally, those ethically unquestioned. this article summarizes some studies carried with sc of various origins and their application to sci treatment.
Experimental behaviour of RC interior wide beam-column joint subject seismic actions and axial load
Hurtado-Alvarado,Marcial; Picón-Rodríguez,Ricardo;
Revista Técnica de la Facultad de Ingeniería Universidad del Zulia , 2009,
Abstract: this paper presents experimental tests that show the influence of axial load of the rc wide beam-column interior joint subjected to lateral displacements. a numerical part where the numerical results of the experimental tests is included. a damage model with slip in the wide beam-column joints is used. the numerical results and experimental tests were similar. experimental tests with and without axial load application were performed. the axial load on the interior joint column was applied using the post-tension technique. the pinching phenomenon and energy dissipation from experimental curves were analyzed. the lateral stress increased with the compression axial load application on the joint column is reported. the energy dissipation increases when the axial load on the column of interior joint decrease. the damage levels of the simulations in the wide beam-column joints increased with low axial load on the column. the numerical results are accord with experimental tests.
Comportamiento experimental de uniones interiores viga plana-columna de concreto armado bajo acciones sísmicas y carga axial Experimental behaviour of RC interior wide beam-column joint subject seismic actions and axial load
Marcial Hurtado-Alvarado,Ricardo Picón-Rodríguez
Revista Técnica de la Facultad de Ingeniería Universidad del Zulia , 2009,
Abstract: Este trabajo presenta un modelo experimental que muestra la influencia de la carga axial en las juntas interiores viga plana-columna de concreto armado sometida a desplazamientos laterales simulando su comportamiento ante un sismo. Existe una parte numérica donde se simula el ensayo experimental usando el Modelo de Da o con Deslizamiento en las Juntas viga plana-columna. Los resultados numéricos y experimentales son muy parecidos. Los ensayos experimentales se realizaron sin carga axial de compresión en la columna y con carga axial aplicando el método de post-tensado para incorporar y mantener la carga axial en la columna de la junta. Los fenómenos analizados de los resultados experimentales son el estrangulamiento en las curvas de comportamiento histerético, la disipación de energía y la comparación entre las curvas de comportamiento experimentales y las simulaciones numéricas. Como resultado se reportan el aumento de resistencia al desplazamiento lateral de la probeta con carga axial aplicada, la mayor energía disipada de la probeta sin carga axial aplicada. Los niveles de da o obtenidos en la simulación con carga axial de compresión en la columna de la junta son mayores que sin carga axial, estando estos resultados numéricos acordes a los experimentales. This paper presents experimental tests that show the influence of axial load of the RC wide beam-column interior joint subjected to lateral displacements. A numerical part where the numerical results of the experimental tests is included. A damage model with slip in the wide beam-column joints is used. The numerical results and experimental tests were similar. Experimental tests with and without axial load application were performed. The axial load on the interior joint column was applied using the post-tension technique. The pinching phenomenon and energy dissipation from experimental curves were analyzed. The lateral stress increased with the compression axial load application on the joint column is reported. The energy dissipation increases when the axial load on the column of interior joint decrease. The damage levels of the simulations in the wide beam-column joints increased with low axial load on the column. The numerical results are accord with experimental tests.
Far infrared absorption in triangular and square quantum dots: characterization of corner and side modes
Manuel Valín-Rodríguez,Antonio Puente,Lloren? Serra
Physics , 2001, DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevB.64.205307
Abstract: The far-infrared absorption of triangular and square two-dimensional quantum dots is studied by means of time simulations of the density oscillations within the time-dependent local-spin-density approximation. The absorption is spatially analyzed using a local-response theory that allows the identification of {\em corner} and {\em side} modes in the geometric nanostructures. The evolution with a vertical magnetic field of varying intensity is also discussed.
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