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Search Results: 1 - 10 of 731 matches for " 马永 "
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山东省批发和零售业销售总额的预测——基于ARIMA模型
Forecast of the Total Sales of Wholesale and Retail in Shandong Province—Based on ARIMA Model
 [PDF]

马永
Advances in Social Sciences (ASS) , 2016, DOI: 10.12677/ASS.2016.54076
Abstract:
商品批发与零售业销售价格是影响人们生活水平的重要因素之一,因此对商品批发和零售业销售总额进行预测有着积极的意义,时间序列分析提供了一套具有科学依据的动态数据处理方法,就是通过对模型的分析研究去了解数据的内在结构和复杂特性,从而达到预测其发展趋势并进行必要的控制的目的。本文利用Box-Jenkins法的ARIMA模型,对1979~2014年山东省批发和零售业销售总额数据序列进行分析,建立了1979~2014年山东省批发和零售业销售总额的自回归移动平均模型ARIMA(0,1,6)。检验结果显示,ARIMA(0,1,6)模型对原始数据序列有着较好的拟合效果,可用于短期内山东省批发和零售业销售总额的预测,为政府部门制定经济计划提供依据和参考。根据建立的模型预测结果,山东省批发和零售业销售额在未来几年仍将保持较高的增长趋势。
The sales price of wholesale and retail of commodities is one of the important factors that affect people’s living standard. It has positive significance to forecast the total sales of the wholesale and retail of commodities. Time series analysis provides a suit of methods dealing with dynamic data with the scientific basis, namely with the analysis and investigation, we can constitutionally know the structure and complex character of the data, so we can achieve the purpose of forecasting its development trend and putting up essential control. In this paper, using the method of Box-Jen- kins ARMIA model, the date sequence of wholesale and retail sales from 1979 to 2014 of Shandong province is analyzed, the model of auto regressive integrated moving average ARIMA (0,1,6) was established. The results show that the ARIMA model has good fitting effects on the original data sequence. The prediction effect can be used for short-term prediction of the total sales of wholesale and retail in Shandong province. It provides a basis and reference for government departments to formulate economic plans. According to the results of the prediction model established, in Shandong province the wholesale and retail sales remain high growth trend in the coming years.
COMPARISON OF THE RATES OF INACTIVATION AND INTRINSIC FLUORESCENCE CHANGES OF LACTATE DEHYDROGENASE H4 DURING GUANIDINE DENATURATION
猪心乳酸脱氢酶(H_4)在盐酸胍变性过程中失活与内源荧光变化速度的比较

马永
生物物理学报 , 1991,
Abstract: The rates of inactivation and intrinsic fluorescence changes of lactate dehydrogenase H4 during denaturation by guanidine in the absence or presence of 2M ammonium sulfate have been compared. The course of inactivation consisted of three phases, that is, very fast phase, fast phase and slow phase. The rate of inactivation at very fast phase cannot be measured even with the stopped-flow apparatus. The rate constants of fast and slow phases of inactivation of enzyme denatured in 1M guanidine were 2.7×10-3 sec-1 and 4.17×10-4 sec-1 respectively. In the presence of 2M ammonium sulfate, the rate constants of fast and slow phases of inactivation of enzyme in 2M guanidine were 6.16×10-3 sec-1 and 1.88×10-3 sec-1 respectively. The process of intrinsic fluorescence changs showed two phases, very fast phase and fast phase. The magnitude of intrinsic fluorescence intensity changes was markdly smaller than that of inactivation during very fast phase. The rate constant of intrinsic fluorescencn changes of fast phaes was 1/3 times that of inactivation of fast phase. Thelresults described above indicated that like creatine kinase, the rate of inactivation of lactate dehydrogenase was faster than that of intrinsic fluorescence changes. It is suggested that the active site of lactate dehydrogenase is situated in a limited region of enzyme molecule and its conformational changes are more sensitive to denaturant as compared to the molecule as a whole.
华北北部晚寒武世碳酸盐岩等时性研究
马永
科学通报 , 1992,
Abstract: 在详细的室内外地层学、岩石学及沉积学研究基础上,作者将本区晚寒武世广泛发育的类型丰富的碳酸盐岩地层划分为五个三级旋回,通过分析对比及对这些沉积旋回主要控制因素的讨论,认为这些对应沉积旋回分别具有等时性意义,通过对对应沉积旋回及其中广泛分布的风暴岩分析对比,认为对应旋回及半旋回沉积及其中的风暴沉积可以作为等时性标志层,并利用旋回Ⅲ下半旋回沉积及其中的一期风暴岩作了高精度岩相古地理图。
人口地图编制方法新探
马永
地理科学 , 1997,
Abstract: 人口地图的编制应针对不同地域的人口分布特征,确定相应的制图单元和表示方法,并拟定相应的人口资料搜集途径和方法。常州市人口图的编制实践说明,城市人口图以多边形的人口密集小区为制图单元,运用多边形分级比值法较为理想.
专题地图地理底图的探讨
马永
地理科学 , 1982,
Abstract: 专题地图是应某一方面的专门需要,以特殊的表现手法,突出地表示某一种或数种自然和社会经济现象,或某一现象的多方面指标的地图。人类对复杂多样的自然和社会经济现象认识程度的不断深化,以及相关学科的渗透,促进了专题地图的发展。
高地应力巷道底鼓影响因素及支护对策研究
马永
煤炭工程 , 2015, DOI: 10.11799/ce201506013
Abstract: 针对新庄矿巷道埋深大、地应力高的特点,提出了巷道围岩“锚索束+注浆加固”支护理念,并应用FLAC3D数值模拟对三种不同支护形式下的巷道底鼓影响因素进行分析研究。研究结果表明高地应力巷道支护过程中,应加强支护两帮角的薄弱环节;巷道随着底板支护强度的增强,浅部围岩应力分布更加均匀,两帮角应力集中现象越弱,底板深部围岩应力向巷道底板浅部围岩转移能力就越低;“锚索束+注浆加固”支护方式不仅有效减小了底鼓量,又很好的解决了巷道片帮、顶板冒落等难题,同时与原支护状态相比顶底板变形量降幅分别达到85.5%和92.7%,说明了此种支护方式的可行性与优越性。
瞬变人口统计方法的建立及其功能
马永
地理研究 , 1989, DOI: 10.11821/yj1989030004
Abstract: 本文阐述了瞬变人口统计方法的基点,并针对谷瞬变场所的主要特征,设计了统计参数,建立了相应的数学模式,从而可将其动态人口换算成便于编制城市人口地图的常态人口。
壳-核型离子交换剂粒内扩散传质理论计算及应用
马永
科学通报 , 1987,
Abstract: 一、引言和常规球状离子交换剂相比,壳-核型交换剂能显著提高离子的传质速度,因而近20年来得到了广泛的应用。例如,在高效色谱分离中薄壳型交换剂作为固定相便是其成功的一例。不过,与传质速度得到提高相联系的是交换容量的必将降低。对分析分离而言,后一影响可以不计,但对制备分离及常量物料富集,则希望传质速度和交换容量同时兼顾,因此需适当选择这
华北北部晚寒武世碳酸盐岩等时性研究
马永
科学通报 , 1992,
Abstract: 在详细的室内外地层学、岩石学及沉积学研究基础上,作者将本区晚寒武世广泛发育的类型丰富的碳酸盐岩地层划分为五个三级旋回,通过分析对比及对这些沉积旋回主要控制因素的讨论,认为这些对应沉积旋回分别具有等时性意义,通过对对应沉积旋回及其中广泛分布的风暴岩分析对比,认为对应旋回及半旋回沉积及其中的风暴沉积可以作为等时性标志层,并利用旋回Ⅲ下半旋回沉积及其中的一期风暴岩作了高精度岩相古地理图。
抗旱春小麦品种的一些生理学特性
Н.И.Кожущко,马永
麦类作物学报 , 1984, DOI: 10.7606/j.issn.1009-1041.1984.02.039
Abstract: 苏联经常遭受各种干旱。因此各个干旱地区都应该有自己的理想品种模式,这种理想品种应具有确定其特性的生理参数。我们的研究目的是根据一些生理特性鉴定几组有前途的普通春小麦品种,查明其在干旱程度和时间不同的条件下每一组品种的生理学特性。
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