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Search Results: 1 - 10 of 174647 matches for " 江志红 Jiang Zhihong "
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A Diagnostic Study of Water Vapor Transport and Budget during Heavy Precipitation over the Huaihe River Basin in 2007
2007年淮河流域强降水过程的水汽输送特征分析

Jiang Zhihong,Liang Zhuoran,Liu Zhengyu and,
,梁卓然,刘征宇,

大气科学 , 2011,
Abstract:
Projection and Evaluation of the Precipitation Extremes Indices over China Based on Seven IPCC AR4 Coupled Climate Models
7个IPCC AR4模式对中国地区极端降水指数模拟能力的评估及其未来情景预估

JIANG Zhihong,CHEN Weilin,SONG Jie and,
,陈威霖,宋洁,

大气科学 , 2009,
Abstract: Climatology of the observed daily precipitation extreme indices(SDII,simple daily intensity index;CDD,the maximum number of consecutive dry days;R10,number of days with precipitation greater than 10 mm;R5d,maximum 5-day precipitation total;R95t,fraction of total precipitation due to events exceeding the 95th percentile of the climatological distribution for wet day amounts) at 550 stations in China during 1961-2000 is used to evaluate the simulation ability of 7 IPCC AR4 Coupled Climate Models,the projected...
Evaluation of the Decadal Prediction Skill over China Based on Four Global Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Climate Models
全球海气耦合模式对中国区域年代际气候变化预测能力的评估

CHEN Weilin,JIANG Zhihong,
陈威霖
,

气候与环境研究 , 2012,
Abstract: By using the results of multi-decadal hindcast(1960-2005) of four atmosphere-ocean coupled mo-dels,the decadal predict skill of temperature and precipitation over China is evaluated,and the predicted climate change of 2005-2015 is also provided.Both the multi-decadal hindcast results and the simulations of 22 CMIP3/IPCC AR4 22 models which have no initialization,are compared to observations.The results show that generally the coupled models which have the assimilation of observational data into decadal prediction outperform the CMIP3/IPCC AR4 general circulation models with no initialization.For temperature field,the decadal climate models still have "cold bias".However,the bias is lower than the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble(MME),for example the China-averaged cold bias reduces 1.3 °C;With respect to the precipitation field there is still "wet bias" in most parts of China,however,over the South China and the inland northwestern part of China the skill of the four decadal prediction models is better than that of the CMIP3 MME.The China-averaged bias for precipitation in the decadal prediction models is lower than CMIP3 MME by 20%.Both of the four decadal prediction models and the CMIP3 MME can simulate warming signal in the late 20th century over China,especially in the northern part.The CMIP3 MME can not reproduce the pattern of "wet South and dry North" in the eastern part of China in recent 20 years.In contrast,the four decadal prediction models show better agreement with observations in simulating the pattern of "wet South" in China in recent 20 years,although they still can not reproduce the pattern of "dry North".The prediction results for 2005-2015 show that the temperature over China will continue to increase by 0.3-0.7 °C,and the magnitudes of this increase are greater in northern part than in southern part,with the largest change locates in the Tibetan Plateau and the northwestern part of China,and the trends of precipitation are not significant.There is a slight increase in the Huanghe-Huaihe region,the northwestern part of China,and the Tibetan Plateau,while in the southwestern part of China the precipitation will decrease.It should be pointed out that the uncertainty is quite great for this prediction.
春夏季青藏高原积雪对中国夏末秋初降水的影响及其可能机制
霍飞 HUO Fei, JIANG Zhihong,刘征宇 LIU Zhengyu
大气科学 , 2014, DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13139
Abstract: 本文首先利用最大协方差分析方法,探讨青藏高原积雪与中国降水之间的联系,发现中国夏末秋初(8~10月,简称ASO)降水与前期及同期高原积雪有着显著联系,当春夏季青藏高原西部多雪时,其后ASO中国长江及其以南地区多雨,而东部沿海的狭长区域少雨。进一步引入最大响应估计等方法,研究中国区域降水对高原积雪异常的响应及其可能的物理机制,结果表明,冬春季高原多雪异常可持续到夏季,并通过改变地表热力状况,导致ASO南亚高压减弱,同时在高、低空激发出两支波列:高层200hPa波列沿中高纬西风急流传播,自高原经蒙古到达日本呈现明显的“负—正—负”位势高度异常传播,日本上空为气旋性异常环流;低层850hPa波列起于高原,经孟加拉湾至中国南海,沿着西南气流传播,导致台湾附近的反气旋性异常环流,其西侧的偏南气流,将南海丰富的水汽输送至中国南部湖南、广西;而高层中心位于日本的气旋性异常环流西侧的偏北气流利于北方天气尺度扰动向南移动,它们为长江中下游及其以南地区多雨提供了有利条件。进一步计算定常波波数也表明,高层西风急流与低层西南季风气流作为波导,有利于高原上空的扰动沿着高、低空2支通道向东传播。由于东部沿海浙江、福建为正位势高度异常区,低层反气旋性异常环流则抑制了该区域的降水。
Singular Cross-Spectrum Analysis and Its Applicability in Climatic Diagnosis
奇异交叉谱分析及其在气候诊断中的应用

Ding Yuguo,Jiang Zhihong,Shi Neng,Zhu Yanfeng,
丁裕国
,,施能,朱艳峰

大气科学 , 1999,
Abstract: A new singular cross-spectrum analysis (SCSA) is presented for climatic diagnosis It is theoretically demonstrated that the SCSA is a generalized analysis method for cross-spectrum by a joint manner with both time and frequency domains, and the SCSA is also an extension of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) Since the enhanced signals of the coupled-oscillation may be obtained, its features of variation with time for the coupled-signals of different scale between two systems may be described in time domain by way of the SCSA, and the coupled-oscillation signals can be decomposed and composed in time domain Thus, the SCSA method is very useful for short range climatic prediction The real case analyses show that the SCSA has better features than the classical cross-spectrum
The Relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Runoff Variation of Aksu Riverin Xinjiang, China
阿克苏河径流变化与北大西洋涛动的关系

LI Hongjun,JIANG Zhihong,LIU Xinchun,YANG Qing,
李红军
,,刘新春,杨青

地理学报 , 2008,
Abstract: The relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Aksu River Runoff (ARR) was investigated by using the methods of wavelet transform, cross wavelet transform, correlation, abrupt change test and linear trend. The results show that: (1) The close affinity between ARR and NAO is obtained by analyzing its interdecadal variations, cycles and correlation. (2) The cross wavelet transform indicates that the correlation is good between ARR and NAO at all cycles in the 1990s, the significant correlation areas are distributed mainly in the 1990s. (3) The variation of ARR and NAO trend strength is coherent. (4) The abrupt change of NAO affects the abrupt change of ARR. (5) The atmospheric circulation variations caused by NAO has impact on the climate of the Aksu River basin, then the runoff of the Aksu River is affected.
A Research on the Application of Spatial Difference Method in Quality Control of Surface Meteorological Data
空间差值检验方法在地面气象资料质量控制中的应用

YIN Changjiao,JIANG Zhihong,WU Xi,JU Xiaohui,
尹嫦姣
,,吴息,鞠晓慧

气候与环境研究 , 2010,
Abstract: 将差值稳定性原理引入气象资料质量控制中,形成了一种新的资料空间一致性检验方法——空间差值检验法,并利用2007年代表我国7个行政区的7个基本观测站的逐日平均气压、最高气压、最低气压、平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、平均水汽压、平均地表温度、最高地表温度和最低地表温度共10个要素的观测资料,检验该方法在气象资料质量检验中的适用性。结果表明空间差值检验方法能有效的检验出可疑数据,并且可以给出具有明确统计意义的误判率。通过对添加的随机人为误差的检验,可以证明该方法相对于目前广泛使用的空间回归法具有更好的检验效果,但是与一般空间检验方法相同,该方法的检验效果与观测站间待检要素的相关程度有关。
Regional Characteristics of the Trend Change for Global Temperature Field during the Last Century
20世纪全球温度场趋势变化的区域特征分析

Jiang Zhihong,Li Jianping,Wang Meihua,Tu Qipu,
,李建平,王梅华,屠其璞

气候与环境研究 , 2004,
Abstract: 利用 1 90 0~ 1 998年全球 5°× 5°年平均表面温度场序列 ,提取具有不同温度变化型态的显著区域 ,探讨温度背景趋势的区域性及其对变暖显著性、稳定性的影响。同时结合对Hadley中心HadCM2海气耦合模式模拟结果的初步分析 ,研究温度背景趋势地域性差异的可能成因。结果表明 ,全球年际至世纪尺度温度变化距平场存在差异显著的 2 0个区域。温度场的背景趋势主要表现为两大类 ,背景增暖型和背景波动型 ,其中背景波动型以准 70a的波动变化为主 ,主要存在于北半球中高纬海域 ,并以北大西洋地区尤为显著 ;背景增暖最为稳定、显著的区域则是南印度洋中纬度地区。不同条件下海气耦合模式数值试验的结果也表明 ,南印度洋中纬度地区是温室效应等外强迫的稳定响应区域 ,温度背景趋势的地域性差异 ,一方面可能与温室效应等外强迫变化在不同区域的响应稳定性有关 ,另一方面也可能与海气系统年代际以上尺度耦合振荡的区域性有关。
奇异交叉谱分析及其在气候诊断中的应用
丁裕国 Ding Yuguo, Jiang Zhihong,施能 Shi Neng,朱艳峰 Zhu Yanfeng
大气科学 , 1999, DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1999.01.11
Abstract: 提出了一种新的用于气候诊断的奇异交叉谱分析方法(记为SCSA)。从理论上证明,它是一类时频域相结合的广义交叉谱分析,也是奇异谱分析(SSA)的一个推广。SCSA可获得比经典交叉谱更为强化的耦合振荡信号,并在时域上描述两个系统之间各种耦合振荡信号的时变特征,因而可将频域上的耦合振荡信号在时域上加以合成和分解,包括非线性耦合振荡的弱信号,这对短期气候预报十分有益。文中实例证明,SCSA比经典交叉谱分析有更为优良的特性。
中国东部不同区域城市群下垫面变化气候效应的模拟研究
周莉 ZHOU Li, JIANG Zhihong,李肇新 LI Zhaoxin,杨修群 YANG Xiuqun
大气科学 , 2015, DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1404.14157
Abstract: 本文利用法国动力气象实验室发展的大气环流模式(LMDZ)对珠江三角洲(简称珠三角)、长江三角洲(简称长三角)和北京市、天津市、河北省区域(简称京津冀)城市群下垫面变化的东亚气候进行模拟试验,以探讨不同区域城市群下垫面变化带来的夏季气候效应及其可能机制,结果表明:珠三角、长三角和京津冀城市群下垫面类型改变后,地表潜热蒸发显著减少,为了平衡地面能量收支,地面温度升高,进而感热通量、地表有效长波辐射增强,地表通过升温对能量进行再分配和再平衡,且下垫面改变引起的温度、地表能量变化基本集中于城市群下垫面变化区域,温度响应具有显著的局地性;对比不同区域城市化温度响应的强弱,发现各区域地表气温变化和能量变化存在较好的对应关系,长三角、珠三角城市群的总能量变化远高于京津冀城市群,其局地增温也是京津冀城市群的一倍以上;局地温度增加,虽有利于低层形成热低压,出现明显上升运动,但蒸发减弱使局地水汽明显减少,最终导致降水减少,表明水汽条件改变是降水减少的主要因素。同时由于中国东部高层呈现南正北负的异常变化,西太平洋副高加强西伸,使降水减少区域并没有集中在局地,特别是东部城市带试验中,出现了东部地区大范围的降水偏少。
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