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地震发生原理及地震半径原理
Principle of Earthquake Occurrence and Seismic Radius
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Advances in Geosciences (AG) , 2011, DOI: 10.12677/ag.2011.11001
Abstract:

本文通过应力集中与应力释放分析,提出了地壳中单位时间内温度变化量达到一定程度时产生地震的原理。并分析了发生地震的条件、地震性质,通过引入地震半径的概念阐述了地震发生的区域性及地震发生对称性与共面性原理的误差邻域的依据,使得地球向球体逐步回归变得可能。
Through analysis of stress concentration and stress relief, this paper provides the principle that earthquake will occur when variation of the earth’s crust temperature per unit time reaches a certain degree.Besides, the condition and nature of earthquake occurrence have been also analyzed. At last, we describe the basis of regionality and the error range of co-planarity and symmetry principle of earthquake occurrence by introduction of the concept of seismic radius, which makes it possible that the earth becomes sphere step by step.

基于组合预测模型的云南省能源消费预测研究
Study on Energy Consumption Prediction in Yunnan Province Based on Combined Prediction Model
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潇潇
Journal of Low Carbon Economy (JLCE) , 2014, DOI: 10.12677/JLCE.2014.34005
Abstract:
能源问题关系着我国经济的发展、环境的保护以及人类的健康,准确预测能源消费总量至关重要,可以给能源工作决策提供科学依据。本文结合云南省能源消费总量的历史数据,在三个单一预测模型的基础上,基于均方误差的非最优权重线性组合法和最小预测误差平方和为目标函数的最优权重线性组合法构建云南省能源消费总量的组合预测模型。通过比较上述预测结果,发现组合预测模型具有更好的预测效果,研究表明该模型对云南省能源消费预测有重要的理论与现实意义。
There is a strong relationship between energy and economic development of China, the protection of human health and the environment. It is essential to accurately predict energy consumption. This can provide a scientific basis for decision-making about energy work. Based on the historical data of energy consumption in Yunnan Province, on the basis of the three single prediction model, we establish combined prediction model to make energy predictions in Yunnan Province by non- optimal weighted linear combination model and minimum sum of square error of objective func- tion for optimal weight linear combination model. The prediction results of these models are ana- lyzed and compared. The results show that combined prediction model is performed better. This indicates that the combined prediction model is an useful theoretical tool for energy prediction in Yunnan Province.
群体特征对“o2o”模式中消费者从众行为的影响分析
Analysis of Group Factors’ Effects on Herd Behavior of Online to Offline Group Buying’s Consumers
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潇潇
Business and Globalization (BGlo) , 2015, DOI: 10.12677/BGlo.2015.33005
Abstract:
团购是目前流行的一种消费方式,随着网络团购的兴起,“o2o”作为一种新兴的电子商务模式迅速渗透到传统的经济活动中。本文通过问卷调查收集数据,建立模型,得到影响“o2o”模式中从众行为的群体因素。研究结果表明,群体因素中吸引性和可信度对“o2o”模式的从众行为有显著的影响。因此,研究“o2o”模式中从众行为的影响因素,有利于团购网站和商家全面、深入的了解消费者的需求,帮助商家寻找更多的商机,推动网络团购和相关产业的长期发展,具有一定的参考价值和指导意义。
Group-buying is now a popular way of consumption. With the rise of group-buying, online to offline as a new e-commerce mode quickly penetrates into the traditional economic activities. In this paper, data were collected by the survey, and a model was built to get group impact factors of herd behavior in online to offline mode. The results show that credibility and attractiveness in group factors have a significant impact on herd behavior in online to offline mode. Therefore, the study about factors of herd behavior in online to offline mode can help group-buying websites and mer-chants understand consumers’ needs roundly and deeply and seek more business opportunities, and can promote the long-term development of group-buying online and other related industries. There is certain reference value and significance.
人文与理性:博物馆展览的诗学与政治学
Humanity and Rationality: The Poetics and Politics of Museum Display
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Modern Anthropology (MA) , 2015, DOI: 10.12677/MA.2015.33004
Abstract:
1789年,法国大革命的爆发为公共博物馆的诞生创造了条件,从博物馆诞生之日起,以理性、秩序、民族国家、公众教育等要素为特色的启蒙精神和以艺术、文学、地方、民间习俗等要素为特色的浪漫主义一直伴随着博物馆的历史发展。从“构成主义”角度来说,博物馆与社会文化发展具有同构性,共同经历了一系列的意识形态与观念的变迁——大众教育的治理术、人类学的他者观、边缘文化(人群)的表征以及“诗学与政治学”的解构与反思。因此,作为博物馆“元叙事”的启蒙精神与浪漫主义双重性矛盾在博物馆空间内,以诗学与政治学的修辞手法不断地进行历史性的“展演”,并在不同时期平衡着博物馆自身存在的价值。
In 1789, the outbreak of the French Revolution created the conditions of the birth of public mu-seums. From the date of birth of the museum, the spiritual enlightenment featuring the rational, the order, the nation-state, and the public education, and romanticism featuring art, literature, local folk customs had been accompanied by the historical development of the museum. From the constructionism perspective, social and cultural development of the museum had the isomorphism and the common experience of a series of changes of ideology and ideas—the governmentality of the public education, the anthropological concept of otherness, the representation of the edge culture (crowd), and “Poetics and politics” deconstruction and reflection. Therefore, as the museum “meta-narrative”, the spirit of the Enlightenment and Romanticism had the contradictory duality in the museum space to do constantly historic “performances” in a mean of “poetics and politics”, and of balance the museum’s own existence value of in different periods.
个体因素对“O2O”模式中消费者从众行为的影响分析
Analysis on Personal Factors’ Effects on Head Behavior of Online to Offline Group Buying’s Consumers
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潇潇
E-Commerce Letters (ECL) , 2015, DOI: 10.12677/ECL.2015.43008
Abstract:
团购是目前流行的一种消费方式,随着网络团购的兴起,“O2O”作为一种新兴的电子商务模式迅速渗透到传统的经济活动中。本文通过问卷调查收集数据,建立模型,得到影响“O2O”模式中从众行为的个体因素。研究结果表明,个体因素中公众自我意识和高度自我监控对“O2O”模式的从众行为有显著的影响。因此,研究“O2O”模式中从众行为的影响因素,不仅有利于团购网站和商家全面、深入的了解消费者的需求,帮助商家寻找更多的商机,推动网络团购和相关产业的长期发展,也有利于消费者客观、理性的消费,这具有一定的参考价值和指导意义。
Group-buying is now a popular way of consumption. With the rise of website group-buying, online to offline as a new e-commerce mode quickly penetrates into the traditional economic activities. The paper collects data by the survey, builds a model and gets personal impact factors of herd behavior in online to offline mode. The results show that public’s self-consciousness and highly self-monitoring in personal factors have a significant impact on herd behavior in online to offline mode. Therefore, the study about factors of herd behavior in online to offline mode can not only help group-buying website and businesses understand consumers’ needs roundly and deeply, look for more business opportunities, and promote the long-term development of the website to group-buying and related industries, but also help consumers consume objectively and rationally. There are certain reference value and significance.
基于GM(1,1)模型的云南省能源消费预测研究
Energy Consumption Prediction in Yunnan Province Based on GM(1,1) Model
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潇潇
Open Journal of Nature Science (OJNS) , 2015, DOI: 10.12677/OJNS.2015.33009
Abstract:
能源对人类生存、经济发展和社会进步至关重要。本文基于云南省能源消费总量的历史数据,建立GM(1,1)模型,使用Matlab软件对云南省未来能源消费总量进行预测。结果表明,云南省未来六年的能源消费量持续增长,此外,该模型的预测精度较高,可以准确预测能源消费量,为云南省制定科学合理的能源消费政策提供重要依据。
Energy is essential to human survival, economic development and social progress. Based on the historical data of energy consumption in Yunnan Province, we establish GM(1,1) model and predict total energy consumption in Yunnan province using Matlab software. The results show that energy consumption in Yunnan Province continues to grow in the next six years. In addition, the model of high prediction accuracy can accurately predict the energy consumption. It provides an important basis for the Yunnan making scientific and rational energy consumption policy.

安徽省人口老龄化的影响因素分析
The Analysis of Factors Influencing Population Aging in Anhui Province
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潇潇
Aging Research (AR) , 2015, DOI: 10.12677/AR.2015.22002
Abstract:
安徽省是一个人口大省,而人口老龄化是经济发展到一定阶段的产物,人口老龄化问题会阻碍社会、政治和经济的发展,所以,研究安徽省人口老龄化的影响因素是非常有必要的。本文基于安徽省有关人口方面的数据,建立多元线性回归模型分析其影响因素,结果表明第三产业的增加值和人口密度是安徽省人口老龄化的主要影响因素。最后我们为应对安徽省人口老龄化问题提出了一些政策建议。
Anhui is a populous province. The population aging is the product of economic development to a certain stage and it will hinder the social, political and economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to study the factors influencing population aging in Anhui Province. Based on the data related to population of Anhui Province, we establish a multiple linear regression model to analyze the factors. The results show that the added value of the tertiary industry and population density are the main factors of the population aging in Anhui Province. Finally, we propose a number of policies and recommendations to deal with the problem of population aging in Anhui Province.

豆科植物–根瘤菌互利共生系统影响因素分析
The Analysis of Factors Influencing Legumes-Rhizobium Mutualism Systems
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潇潇
QianRen Biology (QRB) , 2015, DOI: 10.12677/QRB.2015.23006
Abstract:
豆科植物与根瘤菌组成的互利共生系统是典型的共生系统代表之一,本文基于已有的文献资料,通过Meta分析对其加以整合、分析,建立Meta回归模型。根据模型选择AICc准则选出最优模型,基于权重结果分析各因素以及它们的交互效应的重要性。结果表明,控制措施、施肥与否以及它们之间的交互作用是影响豆科植物–根瘤菌互利共生合作系统的重要因素。
Symbiotic system composed of legumes and rhizobia is one of the typical symbiosis representa-tives. Based on existing literature, we analyze and integrate them by Meta-analysis and establish Meta regression models. We select the optimal model according to AICc model selection criterion and analyze the importance of various factors and their interaction based on the result of the weight. The results show that measured effect, fertilization and the interaction between them is the important factor influencing symbiotic cooperative system composed of legumes and rhizobia.

模型选择与模型平均在Meta分析中的应用研究
The Application Research of Model Selection and Model Averaging in Meta-Analysis
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潇潇
Open Journal of Nature Science (OJNS) , 2015, DOI: 10.12677/OJNS.2015.33011
Abstract:
模型选择与模型平均一直是统计学与计量经济学界研究的重要问题,本文依托Meta分析理论和方法,以分析豆科植物-根瘤菌互利共生合作系统的影响因素为例,比较模型选择与模型平均方法在Meta分析中的应用效果,结果表明模型平均方法既可应用于Meta分析中,分析效果又优于模型选择。
Model selection and model averaging have been the important issues which are researched by statistics and economic circles. This paper relies on theories and methods of Meta-analysis and takes the analysis of factors influencing legumes-rhizobium mutualism cooperative systems as an example. Then, the application results of model selection and model averaging method in meta- analysis are compared. The results show that model averaging method can be applied to meta- analysis and its performance is better than model selection.

基于趋势外推模型的我国人口老龄化预测分析
Population Aging Prediction in China Based on Trend Extrapolation Model
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潇潇
Aging Research (AR) , 2015, DOI: 10.12677/AR.2015.23003
Abstract:
随着经济的发展,我国人口老龄化问题越来越严重。本文基于老年人人口数据,建立趋势外推模型对未来人口老龄化发展趋势进行预测。结果表明:我国2015~2024年的老龄化人口逐年递增,但相比以前,人口老龄化速度减缓。预测人口老龄化的未来发展趋势,具有一定的参考价值,为我国制定实施相关政策提供依据。
With economic development, the problem of population aging is getting worse. This paper, based on the elderly population data, establishes trend extrapolation model for forecasting the future development trend of population aging. The results show that aging population from 2015 to 2024 increases year by year. But compared to the previous, population aging has slowed. The prediction of the future trends of population aging has a certain reference value and provides a basis for China to develop and implement related policies.

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