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埃博拉病毒扩散最优控制系统研究
Study on Optimal Control System of Ebola Disease
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关关, 武佳倩
Service Science and Management (SSEM) , 2016, DOI: 10.12677/SSEM.2016.52006
Abstract:
埃博拉病毒是一种致命性的传染性疾病,严重危及人类的生命安全。准确预测传染病的发展趋势,对于及时配置和调集相关医疗资源、制定合理应对策略,解决卫生部门在应急处理中的经验误区有至关重要的意义。为有效控制该病毒的扩散,本文采用不同的方法建立埃博拉病毒传播预测模型,分别包括概率模型、病程发展模型和系统动力学模型。通过对该病毒的扩散历史中相关时序变量进行研究,寻找其传播规律,构建埃博拉传染病预测模型,可以对该病毒的未来传播情况做出预测,并对不同防控干预措施进行模拟仿真,检测不同措施的效果,为疫情区所在国家制定有效应对方案,健全公共卫生体系,为相关部门提高应急管理能力提供技术支撑和相关建议。此外,本文所构建的模型将一些现实影响因素,如药品配送难易程度,疫情区卫生服务水平等因素考虑在内,对模型进行改进,从而更为真实的模拟埃博拉病毒的蔓延扩散过程。
Ebola virus is a deadly infectious disease, which seriously endangers human life and safety. Ac-curate prediction of the development trend of an infectious disease is of significant importance for the timely allocation and mobilization of relevant medical resources, developing reasonable strategies, as well as solving the problem of experience dependence in emergency treatment of the health sector. In order to effectively deal with the spread of the virus, this paper introduces three different methods to establish the prediction model of the Ebola virus transmission process, i.e. the probability model, the disease development course model and the system dynamics model. Through data mining of the time series variables in the disease spreading history, we can establish our predicting model based on the spreading rules of Ebola epidemic disease. Through the Ebola epidemic prediction model, we can make predictions on the future spread of the virus and simulate different control strategies under different scenarios to explore for the most effective measures. Therefore, through this research, we can provide effective technical support and suggestions for epidemic countries in Ebola disease management and to improve the public health emergency response ability. In addition, the proposed models of this paper also take some realistic factors, such as the difficulty degree of drug distribution and the medical service level in different epidemic areas into account to make improvements on the original model, which help the models to be more realistic in the simulation of the Ebola virus spreading process.
减少间接矩阵变换器共模电压的改进空间矢量调制策略
粟梅,关关, 孙尧, 但汉兵, 李幸
中国电机工程学报 , 2014, DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2014.24.004
Abstract: 为抑制间接矩阵变换器工作时产生的共模电压,分析传统空间矢量调制下间接矩阵变换器的共模电压分布规律,并提出一种减少共模电压的改进空间矢量调制方法。该方法的核心思想在于整流级和逆变级的零矢量重组,完全不同于传统空间矢量调制。该方法一方面大幅度的降低了共模电压,另一方面降低了逆变级的开关损耗,改变了系统开关损耗分布。实验和仿真结果验证了该方法的有效性。
应用于V2G的AC/DC矩阵变换器
王辉,粟梅,孙尧,李幸,韩华,关关
中国电机工程学报 , 2013,
Abstract: 由于当前V2G系统中普遍采用的电压型脉宽调制(pulsewidthmodulation,PWM)整流方案中所存在的蓄电池电压匹配、功率体积比及系统效率问题,提出一种采用AC/DC矩阵变换器的解决方案。针对经典电流空间矢量调制策略中充电电流纹波较大的缺点,提出一种在全输出范围内减小充电电流纹波的分段优化调制策略,并深入对比分析这两种调制策略下充电电流纹波的大小。仿真和实验结果表明,所提分段优化调制策略的正确性和可行性。
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