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Search Results: 1 - 10 of 9056 matches for " Silvia Simonelli "
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Validation of a Statistical Forecast Model for Zonda Wind in West Argentina Based on the Vertical Atmospheric Structure  [PDF]
Federico A. Norte, Silvia Simonelli
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences (ACS) , 2016, DOI: 10.4236/acs.2016.61004
Abstract: Zonda is a strong, warm, very dry wind associated with adiabatic compression upon descending the eastern slopes of the Andes Cordillera in western-central Argentina. This research seeks, first, to validate the skill of a statistical forecast of zonda based on the behavior of the vertical structure of the atmosphere and, second, to describe the climatology of the vertical profile leeward of the Andes. The forecast was built for May-August 1974/1983, and was verified against a series of cases recorded in the Mendoza Aero and San Juan Aero weather stations for May-August 2005/2014. It made use of the Stepwise Discriminant Analysis (SDA) and rawinsonde data from Mendoza Aero as predictors, with the following input variables: surface pressure, temperature, dew point, and the zonal and meridional components of the wind on surface and of the fixed levels up to 200 hPa. The variables selected as predictors by the SDA were: surface pressure, dew point depression at 850 hPa, meridional wind component at 850 hPa, and zonal wind component at 400 hPa. Climatology of the vertical profile of the atmosphere leeward of the Andes was built from daily rawinsonde data from Mendoza Aero for May-August 1974/1983. Zonda markedly influences the atmospheric structure leeward of the Andes in western-central Argentina. Its maximum impact occurs at 850 to 800 hPa, with significant heating and decrease of humidity. Validation of the prediction program considered deterministic and probabilistic forecasts. Contingency tables show that probability of zonda occurrence in the plains is generally overestimated, and false alarm cases are far more frequent than surprise events. The main contribution of this paper is precisely the validation of the prediction model, which ensures forecasters one more tool to improve zonda forecasting; this, in turn, will aid decision-makers when taking steps to ameliorate zonda wind impact.
Impacto del fenómeno ENOS en el régimen hidrometeorológico de Mendoza, Argentina
Norte, Federico,Simonelli, Silvia,Heredia, Nicolás
Bulletin de l'Institut Francais d'études Andines , 1998,
Abstract: IMPACT DU PHéNOMèNE ENSO SUR LE RéGIME HYDROMéTéOROLOGIQUE DE MENDONZA, ARGENTINE. Le principal objectif de ce travail est d analyser les effets hydrométéorologiques causés par ENSO dans la province de Mendoza, Argentine. Ensuite on étudiera les conditions météorologiques prédominantes (situations synoptiques les plus fréquentes et les phénomènes de méso-échelle associés) pendant l hiver, en plaine et dans la cordillère. On caractérise la zone étudiée hydrologiquement et climatologiquement. On utilise pour cela les données de débits mensuels des principales rivières de la région ainsi que les données climatiques, synoptiques et des images de satellite. Notre étude couvre les événements ENSO de ce siècle et plus particulièrement ceux de 1982-1983, 1986-1987, 1991-1993 et les premières manifestations de celui de 1997-1998. Les principaux résultats montrent, pour les années ENSO, une forte augmentation des débits des rivières à la fin du printemps et pendant l été provoqué par l excès de précipitation de l hiver antérieur. Les plus forts débits ont été observés au cours de l'événement chaud de 1982-1983, considéré jusqu'à 1997 comme le plus fort de ce siècle. L impact principal sur le régime hydrique est d à l anomalie positive de précipitations dans la partie de la cordillère qui a un régime hivernal. On en conclut que les plus fortes précipitations de la cordillère sont reliées à une augmentation de la fréquence des passages de zones de basse pression et d incursions d onde longue à des latitudes plus basses que la normale. Ceci provoque une anomalie négative dans le champ de pression de surface et des couches moyennes de l atmosphère. El objetivo principal del trabajo es analizar los efectos hidrometeorológicos que ocasiona el evento cálido ENOS en la provincia de Mendoza, Argentina. Los objetivos secundarios son considerar las condiciones meteorológicas predominantes (situaciones sinópticas más frecuentes) durante el invierno tanto en el llano como en el sector cordillerano. Se caracteriza hidrológica y climatológicamente al área de estudio. Se utilizan datos de caudales mensuales de los principales ríos de la región, así como datos climáticos, sinópticos. El estudio abarca los eventos cálidos ENOS registrados en este siglo, haciendo énfasis en los casos de 1982-1983, 1986-1987, 1991-1993 y las primeras manifestaciones del evento de 1997-1998. Los resultados principales muestran un incremento sustancial de los caudales en el período estival como resultado del exceso de precipitación invernal producido por el correspondiente evento cálido ENOS. Se desta
Caracterización de sondeos estivales del norte de Mendoza mediante el análisis de componentes principales y obtención de un índice de convección
Araneo,Diego C; Simonelli,Silvia C; Norte,Federico A; Viale,Maximiliano; Santos,Jorge R;
Meteorologica , 2011,
Abstract: the principal components analysis was used to characterize the summery north mendoza rawinsondes, evaluating their capacity to identify patterns associated to the convection occurrence and defining an instability index. it was selected 326 cases, building an entry matrix with the temperature and dew point temperature anomalies for the standard levels between 850 and 300 hpa. the analysis showed 6 significant components that explain more than 91% of variance. therefore, 12 patterns were obtained, which represent different atmospheric conditions. the main correlations between the patterns and convection (c) and non convection (nc) cases were obtained for the components 6, 2, 4 and 3. the relatively wet environments with a strong gradient of t at mean and high levels would favour the convection, while it is inhibited with dry layers in mean and high levels, and weak gradients of t in low layers. the c/nc index can be estimated by a logistic multiple regression dependent to the component loadings, with a correlation of 0,5, determining a stability/instability index calculable from the t and td profiles and it depends on the climatological features of the region. the index showed an efficiency of 72%.
Análisis de una ola de calor extrema en la región subtropical de américa del sur
Norte, Federico Augusto;Seluchi, Marcelo Enrique;Gomes, Jorge Luis;Simonelli, Silvia Carmen;
Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia , 2007, DOI: 10.1590/S0102-77862007000300010
Abstract: this work analyzes the meteorological conditions that caused the occurrence of an intense heat wave over subtropical south america, with temperatures higher than 40°c immediately to the east of the andes, during the last week of january 2003. to that purpose the terms of the thermodynamic equation were evaluated through numerical simulations performed with the eta/cptec regional model. the strong temperature increase was caused by adiabatic warming (subsidence) as well as by the net positive surface heat flux, especially to the east of the andes. the qualitative analysis of the quasi-geostrophic omega equation revealed that the large-scale subsidence was the result of the cold horizontal temperature advection and the advance of a wide ridge at midlevels. additionally, the presence of forced orographic subsidence (zonda wind) is evident from observations and numerical simulations in connection with the passage of a short trough immerse in the wider ridge, the approach of a cold front and the southward progress of the thermal-orographic low. since this phenomenon is quite uncommon during summer, its incidence in combination to the other processes previously described would explain the occurrence of extreme maximum temperatures over western argentina.
Caracterización de sondeos estivales del norte de Mendoza mediante el análisis de componentes principales y obtención de un índice de convección Characterization Of Summer Soundings From Northern Mendoza By Principal Components Analysis And The Obtaining Of A Convection Index
Diego C Araneo,Silvia C Simonelli,Federico A Norte,Maximiliano Viale
Meteorologica , 2011,
Abstract: Se utilizó el análisis de componentes principales para caracterizar radiosondeos estivales del norte de Mendoza, evaluando su capacidad para identificar patrones asociados a la ocurrencia de convección y definiendo un índice de inestabilidad. Se tomaron 326 casos, construyendo una matriz de anomalías de temperatura (T) y temperatura de punto de rocío (Td) de los niveles estándar entre 850 y 300 hPa. El análisis arrojó 6 componentes significativas que explican más del 91% de varianza. Así se obtuvieron 12 patrones que representan condiciones atmosféricas diferenciadas. Las mayores correlaciones entre patrones y casos de convección (C) y no convección (NC), se obtuvieron para las componentes 6, 2, 4 y 3. La convección se favorecería en entornos relativamente húmedos con un marcado gradiente de T en niveles medios y altos, mientras se inhibiría con capas secas en niveles medios y altos, y débiles gradientes de T en capas bajas. El indicador de C/NC puede estimarse por regresión múltiple logística dependiente de las componentes de carga, con una correlación conjunta de 0,5, determinando un índice de estabilidad/inestabilidad calculable a partir de los perfiles de T y Td y dependiente de las características climatológicas de la región. El índice mostró una efectividad del 72%. The Principal Components Analysis was used to characterize the summery North Mendoza rawinsondes, evaluating their capacity to identify patterns associated to the convection occurrence and defining an instability index. It was selected 326 cases, building an entry matrix with the temperature and dew point temperature anomalies for the standard levels between 850 and 300 hPa. The analysis showed 6 significant components that explain more than 91% of variance. Therefore, 12 patterns were obtained, which represent different atmospheric conditions. The main correlations between the patterns and convection (C) and non convection (NC) cases were obtained for the components 6, 2, 4 and 3. The relatively wet environments with a strong gradient of T at mean and high levels would favour the convection, while it is inhibited with dry layers in mean and high levels, and weak gradients of T in low layers. The C/NC index can be estimated by a logistic multiple regression dependent to the component loadings, with a correlation of 0,5, determining a stability/instability index calculable from the T and Td profiles and it depends on the climatological features of the region. The index showed an efficiency of 72%.
Black-Scholes Fuzzy Numbers as Indexes of Performance
M. R. Simonelli
Applied Computational Intelligence and Soft Computing , 2010, DOI: 10.1155/2010/607214
Abstract: We use the set of propositions of some previous papers to define a fuzzy version of the Black-Scholes value where the risk free instantaneous interest intensity, the volatility and the initial stock price are fuzzy numbers whose parameters are built with statistical financial data. With our Black-Scholes fuzzy numbers we define indexes of performance varing in time. As an example, with data of the Italian Stock Exchange on MIB30, we see that in 2004 and 2006 our indexes are negative, that is, they are indexes of the refuse to invest and this refuse increased. So, on November 11, 2006 we could forecast that the market will become with more risk: the risk of loss will increase. Now, on January 25, 2010, we know that this forecast has happened. Obviously, the parameters of our Black-Scholes fuzzy numbers can be valued also with incomplete, possibilistic data. With respect to the probabilistic one, our fuzzy method is more simple and immediate to have a forecast on the financial market. 1. Introduction In this paper, we use the fuzzy theory of Zadeh [1], the set of propositions used in some previous papers of us [2–4] and statistical data, to have a fuzzy version of the Black-Scholes (B-S) value for a European call option, where the istantaneous intensity of the risk-free interest, the standard deviation of the instantaneous intensity of return from the underlying security (volatility), and the initial stock price are fuzzy numbers built with statistical financial data. Obviously, a similar method can be used if one has incomplete possibilistic data. With a theorem we deduce that our B-S fuzzy sets are fuzzy numbers. Then we give a statistical example: with the data of the Italian MIB 30, that is, with its time series, we build a B-S fuzzy number which for every belief degree gives a B-S value. With the support of our B-S fuzzy numbers we define indexes of the performance of the market varing in time. In particular, in 2004 and 2006 we see that these indexes are negative, that is, they are indexes of the refuse to invest. So, comparing our indexes of 2004 and 2006, on November 11, 2006 we could forecast for future loss in the gamble on the increase of the MIB30. The forecast happened. This paper is organized as follows. In Section 2 we set the preliminaries and give the theorems which link the Zadeh's extension principle to the construction of fuzzy numbers with cut-functions in accordance with the theorems in [2, 3, 5] and Zadeh's identity; inSection 3we define three fuzzy numbers which we deduce by probabilistic densities to use for our applications; in
Cambios recientes en la migración y en la inserción laboral en Tijuana, entre 1990 y 2000
Carlos Ernesto Simonelli
Papeles de población , 2002,
Abstract: El autor analiza los cambios que se presentaron en la migración hacia Tijuana, Baja California, y en la inserción laboral, durante la última década del siglo XX, y, a la vez, los relaciona con las transformaciones más destacadas del periodo de acuerdo con aspectos demográficos, económicos, productivos y laborales en dicha ciudad.
Análise de atividades para a inclus?o de pessoas com deficiência no trabalho: uma proposta de modelo
Simonelli, Angela Paula;Camarotto, Jo?o Alberto;
Gest?o & Produ??o , 2011, DOI: 10.1590/S0104-530X2011000100002
Abstract: according to the brazilian legislation, hiring people with disabilities is mandatory. law 8213/91 establishes admission quotas based on the number of employees of public and private companies. making use of methods and techniques based on the ergonomic analysis of activity and occupational therapy, this research aimed at building a model to determine the skills necessary to undertake work related activities based on a study carried out in an textile industry in the city of s?o carlos, sp, from march to december 2007. the model is proposed and its implementation, obstacles, and openings are discussed. this study proposes a model for the inclusion of people with disability in the labor market based on the analysis of activity. it reports a case study carried out for a doctoral degree thesis that was financially supported by the national council for scientific and technological development (cnpq). the model consists of the analysis of industrial activities to identify job opportunities for persons with disability (pwd) as a subsidy to the company actions that are related to employing disabled people.
área de Influência de um Bairro sob a ótica de Conceitos de Espa o de Atividades
Maria Inês Faé,Cristiano Hemerly Simonelli
Geografares , 2012,
Abstract: Este artigo aborda conceitos de espa o de atividades e de área de influência direta de empreendimentos para subsidiar uma análise da atra o de indivíduos para um dado bairro. Por defini o esse espa o de atividades coincide com a área de Influência Direta, porém n o a de um Empreendimento, mas sim a de um bairro a partir das características de infraestrutura urbana ofertadas como servi os, comércio, lazer, educa o, saúde, etc. Um estudo de caso permite o tra ado de linhas de desejo de viagens entre localidades o que complementa a análise conceitual realizada.
Six assertions about the salutogenic approach and health promotion
Fabrizio Simonelli,Ana Isabel Fernandes Guerreiro,Ilaria Simonelli,Caterina di Pasquale
Italian Journal of Public Health , 2010, DOI: 10.2427/5734
Abstract: Background: The concept of health is a continuously changing issue, with ever richer and more comprehensive meanings and definitions. In recent decades, we have witnessed a strong evolution of the scientific paradigms and cultural frameworks that influence health patterns. In particular, in 1986 the Charter of Ottawa gave further dimensions to the concept of health and pushed the concept of health promotion to the forefront. In this context, the salutogenic approach, proposed by A. Antonovsky, represents a theoretical contribution which stimulates discussion about meanings and implications. Aim and Methods: The present paper aims to provide a conceptual framework for the interpretation of health patterns and to broaden the theoretical interpretation of the salutogenic approach. In order to do this, a literature review was carried out, taking into account several disciplines and perspectives, including sociology and anthropology. The data collection for this paper was undertaken through two parallel literature reviews and systematisation of the information gathered. Results: The following health patterns were identified: the disease treatment pattern, the health care pattern, the disease prevention pattern and the health promotion pattern. These approaches allow one to better analyse and understand the added values of the salutogenic approach. Conclusions: The present discussion contributes to the debate surrounding the salutogenesis theory and its applicability to the healthcare setting by proposing six assertions about the salutogenic approach to health promotion
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