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Search Results: 1 - 10 of 231432 matches for " Michael D. Dettinger "
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Atmospheric Rivers, Floods and the Water Resources of California
Michael D. Dettinger,Fred Martin Ralph,Tapash Das,Paul J. Neiman,Daniel R. Cayan
Water , 2011, DOI: 10.3390/w3020445
Abstract: California’s highly variable climate and growing water demands combine to pose both water-supply and flood-hazard challenges to resource managers. Recently important efforts to more fully integrate the management of floods and water resources have begun, with the aim of benefitting both sectors. California is shown here to experience unusually large variations in annual precipitation and streamflow totals relative to the rest of the US, variations which mostly reflect the unusually small average number of wet days per year needed to accumulate most of its annual precipitation totals (ranging from 5 to 15 days in California). Thus whether just a few large storms arrive or fail to arrive in California can be the difference between a banner year and a drought. Furthermore California receives some of the largest 3-day storm totals in the country, rivaling in this regard the hurricane belt of the southeastern US. California’s largest storms are generally fueled by landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs). The fractions of precipitation and streamflow totals at stations across the US that are associated with ARs are documented here and, in California, contribute 20–50% of the state’s precipitation and streamflow. Prospects for long-lead forecasts of these fractions are presented. From a meteorological perspective, California’s water resources and floods are shown to derive from the same storms to an extent that makes integrated flood and water resources management all the more important.
Projected Evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a Century of Climate Change
James E. Cloern, Noah Knowles, Larry R. Brown, Daniel Cayan, Michael D. Dettinger, Tara L. Morgan, David H. Schoellhamer, Mark T. Stacey, Mick van der Wegen, R. Wayne Wagner, Alan D. Jassby
PLOS ONE , 2011, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0024465
Abstract: Background Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010–2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.
The utility of daily large-scale climate data in the assessment of climate change impacts on daily streamflow in California
E. P. Maurer, H. G. Hidalgo, T. Das, M. D. Dettinger,D. R. Cayan
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS) & Discussions (HESSD) , 2010,
Abstract: Three statistical downscaling methods were applied to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (used as a surrogate for the best possible general circulation model), and the downscaled meteorology was used to drive a hydrologic model over California. The historic record was divided into an "observed" period of 1950–1976 to provide the basis for downscaling, and a "projected" period of 1977–1999 for assessing skill. The downscaling methods included a bias-correction/spatial downscaling method (BCSD), which relies solely on monthly large scale meteorology and resamples the historical record to obtain daily sequences, a constructed analogues approach (CA), which uses daily large-scale anomalies, and a hybrid method (BCCA) using a quantile-mapping bias correction on the large-scale data prior to the CA approach. At 11 sites we compared three simulated daily flow statistics: streamflow timing, 3-day peak flow, and 7-day low flow. While all downscaling methods produced reasonable streamflow statistics at most locations, the BCCA method consistently outperformed the other methods, capturing the daily large-scale skill and translating it to simulated streamflows that more skillfully reproduced observationally-driven streamflows.
Assessing climate change impacts on daily streamflow in California: the utility of daily large-scale climate data
E. P. Maurer,H. G. Hidalgo,T. Das,M. D. Dettinger
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions , 2010,
Abstract: Three statistical downscaling methods were applied to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (used as a surrogate for the best possible general circulation model), and the downscaled meteorology was used to drive a hydrology model over California. The historic record was divided into an "observed" period of 1950–1976 to provide the basis for downscaling, and a "projected" period of 1977–1999 for assessing skill. The downscaling methods included a bias-correction/spatial downscaling method (BCSD), which relies solely on monthly large scale meteorology and resamples the historical record to obtain daily sequences, a constructed analogues approach (CA), which uses daily large-scale anomalies, and a hybrid method (BCCA) using a quantile-mapping bias correction on the large-scale data prior to the CA approach. At 11 sites we compared three simulated daily flow statistics: streamflow timing, 3-day peak flow, and 7-day low flow. While all downscaling methods produced reasonable streamflow statistics at most locations, the BCCA method consistently outperformed the other methods, capturing the daily large-scale skill and translating it to simulated streamflows that more skillfully reproduced observationally-driven streamflows.
Climate Change Science & Propaganda  [PDF]
Michael D. Nelson
International Journal of Geosciences (IJG) , 2015, DOI: 10.4236/ijg.2015.612105
Abstract: This article addresses the relationship between science and propaganda using the Climate Change controversy as a study model. The United Nations International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the recognized leader on this model issuing multiple Assessment Reports. This review begins with a discussion of the basics—what is propaganda and how does it work, followed by whether the IPCC adopted or rejected it. Next explored is how propaganda can be seamlessly fused into “report writing” in a way that arouses and makes interesting humdrum details. Some unexpected results emerged from current and historical observation data involving the Greenhouse theory, CO2 sources, ocean pH, sea levels, and ice balances. The final section confronts whether “a point of view” constrains objectivity in favor of outcome. The overall conclusion is that the earth is boringly healthy.
Determining Appropriate Damages for Patent Infringement: An Alternative Approach  [PDF]
Michael D’Rosario
Theoretical Economics Letters (TEL) , 2017, DOI: 10.4236/tel.2017.73023
Abstract: Determining the quantum of damages that should be afforded to an applicant when patent infringement has occurred is problematic for a number of reasons. Incorporeal works are difficult to value, and consequently certain categories of intellectual property present real challenges for the courts. This paper contends that citation information may be particularly helpful in relation to patents for a number of reasons. Citation information may afford useful insights into the level of industry uptake and the amount of subsequent innovation made possible by the patent. This insight may be particularly beneficial in situations where the courts are considering awarding additional damages. While the courts have not considered patent citation information thus far, the paper presents a number of patent citation-related metrics that may assist with the determination of patent damages.
The Regulation of All Pay Auctions: Is There Need for Greater Regulation of Online Auctioneers?  [PDF]
Michael D’Rosario
Theoretical Economics Letters (TEL) , 2017, DOI: 10.4236/tel.2017.75081
Abstract: Auctions are a ubiquitous process, with auctioneers playing a critical role in serving as a bridge between buyers and sellers, and as such assisting in the process of price discovery. Given this critical role, the regulation of auctions and auctioneers is of particular concern. The emergence of online selling has raised a number of pertinent questions about how the industry should be regulated. In particular so-called penny auctions (in economic parlance “unit bid auction”) have raised a number of pertinent questions about consumer protections. Whether these online selling models constitute auctions, and whether they mirror “bricks and mortar” rivals remain pertinent questions. Moreover, the adequacy of the regulatory apparatus that moderates the activities of auctioneers operating within conventional “analogue markets” is uncertain when such apparatus is applied to “digital markets” involving online selling through auction like processes. The current study considers need for regulation of unit bit auction in light of the underlying economics of such auction models. The model suggests that enhanced disclosure and greater regulation may ultimately be necessary.
Expectations for Presentation of Engineering and Scientific Mobile Platform Information within a Virtual Globe Geographic Information Systems  [PDF]
Brian Guise, Michael D. Proctor
Journal of Geographic Information System (JGIS) , 2011, DOI: 10.4236/jgis.2011.32008
Abstract: Layered information systems like Google Earth have revolutionized public access to and visualization of geographic information through virtual globes. Separately, geo-specific technical information has been advanced in mobile platforms, both handheld and embedded devices, for the engineering and scientific communities. However, engineering and scientific information has had limited penetration into virtual globe Geographic Information Systems (GIS). This article explores unmet expectations which may be at the root of the issue. These expectations include design of the architecture within the originating mobile platform as well as expression of the level of accuracy and precision necessary for validity of the simulation displayed through the virtual globe GIS. The article below discusses architecture and validity research that advances real-time generation of simulated electro-magnetic coverage maps as composed layers within a mobile platform. Further, the research also enables real-time visualization of the simulated coverage maps by a global team through a virtual globe. Finally, for communication assurance purposes, the level of validity of the generated simulated coverage maps are analyzed from the perspective of an analog celestial body exploration mission by a mobile rover and its supporting organization analysis needs.
The Utrecht District and the Disputed Territory—A Cause of the Anglo-Zulu War Re-Examined  [PDF]
Anthony D. Coleman, Michael Garstang
Advances in Historical Studies (AHS) , 2014, DOI: 10.4236/ahs.2014.33015
Abstract: The causes of the Anglo-Zulu War have been seen by historians primarily in terms of the larger geopolitical issues of the mid to late 19th Century. This paper focuses upon the much smaller entities of the Utrecht District of Northern Natal and the adjacent Zulu territory which came to be known as the Disputed Territory. The Utrecht District is shown to be seriously deficient in rainfall, soils, grazing and agricultural potential, to the extent that it was unable to support the occupying Boers, forcing them to encroach upon Zulu territory, contravening concessions granted by the Zulus. This action by the Utrecht Boers disrupted relations with the Zulus, precipitating a colonial commission of inquiry which was found in favor of the Zulus. Despite this finding, larger issues came to the forefront obscuring the core role played by the environmental circumstances of the Utrecht District and the resulting Anglo-Zulu War of 1879.
A Regime Switching Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads  [PDF]
Seungmook Choi, Michael D. Marcozzi
Journal of Mathematical Finance (JMF) , 2015, DOI: 10.4236/jmf.2015.51005
Abstract: We consider a rating-based model for the term structure of credit risk spreads wherein the credit-worthiness of the issuer is represented as a finite-state continuous time Markov process. This approach entails a progressive drift in credit quality towards default. A model of the economy is presented featuring stochastic transition probabilities; credit instruments are valued via an ultra parabolic Hamilton-Jacobi system of equations discretized utilizing the method-of-lines finite difference method. Computations for a callable bond are presented demonstrating the efficiency of the method.
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