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Search Results: 1 - 10 of 359752 matches for " José J. Ramasco "
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Influence of Opinion Dynamics on the Evolution of Games
Floriana Gargiulo, José J. Ramasco
PLOS ONE , 2012, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0048916
Abstract: Under certain circumstances such as lack of information or bounded rationality, human players can take decisions on which strategy to choose in a game on the basis of simple opinions. These opinions can be modified after each round by observing own or others payoff results but can be also modified after interchanging impressions with other players. In this way, the update of the strategies can become a question that goes beyond simple evolutionary rules based on fitness and become a social issue. In this work, we explore this scenario by coupling a game with an opinion dynamics model. The opinion is represented by a continuous variable that corresponds to the certainty of the agents respect to which strategy is best. The opinions transform into actions by making the selection of an strategy a stochastic event with a probability regulated by the opinion. A certain regard for the previous round payoff is included but the main update rules of the opinion are given by a model inspired in social interchanges. We find that the fixed points of the dynamics of the coupled model are different from those of the evolutionary game or the opinion models alone. Furthermore, new features emerge such as the independence of the fraction of cooperators with respect to the topology of the social interaction network or the presence of a small fraction of extremist players.
Combinatorial approach to Modularity
Filippo Radicchi,Andrea Lancichinetti,José J. Ramasco
Physics , 2010, DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.82.026102
Abstract: Communities are clusters of nodes with a higher than average density of internal connections. Their detection is of great relevance to better understand the structure and hierarchies present in a network. Modularity has become a standard tool in the area of community detection, providing at the same time a way to evaluate partitions and, by maximizing it, a method to find communities. In this work, we study the modularity from a combinatorial point of view. Our analysis (as the modularity definition) relies on the use of the configurational model, a technique that given a graph produces a series of randomized copies keeping the degree sequence invariant. We develop an approach that enumerates the null model partitions and can be used to calculate the probability distribution function of the modularity. Our theory allows for a deep inquiry of several interesting features characterizing modularity such as its resolution limit and the statistics of the partitions that maximize it. Additionally, the study of the probability of extremes of the modularity in the random graph partitions opens the way for a definition of the statistical significance of network partitions.
Systematic comparison of trip distribution laws and models
Maxime Lenormand,Aleix Bassolas,José J. Ramasco
Physics , 2015,
Abstract: Trip distribution laws are basic for the travel demand characterization needed in transport and urban planning. Several approaches have been considered in the last years. One of them is the so-called gravity law, in which the number of trips is assumed to be related to the population at origin and destination and to decrease with the distance. The mathematical expression of this law resembles Newton's law of gravity, which explains its name. Another popular approach is inspired by the theory of intervening opportunities and it has been concreted into the so-called radiation models. Individuals are supposed to travel until they find a job opportunity, so the population and jobs spatial distributions naturally lead to a trip flow network. In this paper, we perform a thorough comparison between the gravity and the radiation approaches in their ability at estimating commuting flows. We test the gravity and the radiation laws against empirical trip data at different scales and coming from different countries. Different versions of the gravity and the radiation laws are used to estimate the probability that an individual has to commute from one unit to another, called trip distribution law. Based on these probability distribution the commuting networks are simulated with different trip distribution models. We show that the gravity law performs better than the radiation law to estimate the commuting flows, to preserve the structure of the network and to fit the commuting distance distribution although it fails at predicting commuting flows at large distances. Finally, we show that both approaches can be used in absence of detailed data for calibration since the only parameter of both the gravity and the radiation laws depends only on the scale of the geographic unit.
Information filtering in complex weighted networks
Filippo Radicchi,José J. Ramasco,Santo Fortunato
Computer Science , 2010, DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.83.046101
Abstract: Many systems in nature, society and technology can be described as networks, where the vertices are the system's elements and edges between vertices indicate the interactions between the corresponding elements. Edges may be weighted if the interaction strength is measurable. However, the full network information is often redundant because tools and techniques from network analysis do not work or become very inefficient if the network is too dense and some weights may just reflect measurement errors, and shall be discarded. Moreover, since weight distributions in many complex weighted networks are broad, most of the weight is concentrated among a small fraction of all edges. It is then crucial to properly detect relevant edges. Simple thresholding would leave only the largest weights, disrupting the multiscale structure of the system, which is at the basis of the structure of complex networks, and ought to be kept. In this paper we propose a weight filtering technique based on a global null model (GloSS filter), keeping both the weight distribution and the full topological structure of the network. The method correctly quantifies the statistical significance of weights assigned independently to the edges from a given distribution. Applications to real networks reveal that the GloSS filter is indeed able to identify relevantconnections between vertices.
Finding Statistically Significant Communities in Networks
Andrea Lancichinetti,Filippo Radicchi,José J. Ramasco,Santo Fortunato
PLOS ONE , 2012, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0018961
Abstract: Community structure is one of the main structural features of networks, revealing both their internal organization and the similarity of their elementary units. Despite the large variety of methods proposed to detect communities in graphs, there is a big need for multi-purpose techniques, able to handle different types of datasets and the subtleties of community structure. In this paper we present OSLOM (Order Statistics Local Optimization Method), the first method capable to detect clusters in networks accounting for edge directions, edge weights, overlapping communities, hierarchies and community dynamics. It is based on the local optimization of a fitness function expressing the statistical significance of clusters with respect to random fluctuations, which is estimated with tools of Extreme and Order Statistics. OSLOM can be used alone or as a refinement procedure of partitions/covers delivered by other techniques. We have also implemented sequential algorithms combining OSLOM with other fast techniques, so that the community structure of very large networks can be uncovered. Our method has a comparable performance as the best existing algorithms on artificial benchmark graphs. Several applications on real networks are shown as well. OSLOM is implemented in a freely available software (http://www.oslom.org), and we believe it will be a valuable tool in the analysis of networks.
Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm
Tizzoni Michele,Bajardi Paolo,Poletto Chiara,Ramasco José J
BMC Medicine , 2012, DOI: 10.1186/1741-7015-10-165
Abstract: Background Mathematical and computational models for infectious diseases are increasingly used to support public-health decisions; however, their reliability is currently under debate. Real-time forecasts of epidemic spread using data-driven models have been hindered by the technical challenges posed by parameter estimation and validation. Data gathered for the 2009 H1N1 influenza crisis represent an unprecedented opportunity to validate real-time model predictions and define the main success criteria for different approaches. Methods We used the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model to generate stochastic simulations of epidemic spread worldwide, yielding (among other measures) the incidence and seeding events at a daily resolution for 3,362 subpopulations in 220 countries. Using a Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood analysis, the model provided an estimate of the seasonal transmission potential during the early phase of the H1N1 pandemic and generated ensemble forecasts for the activity peaks in the northern hemisphere in the fall/winter wave. These results were validated against the real-life surveillance data collected in 48 countries, and their robustness assessed by focusing on 1) the peak timing of the pandemic; 2) the level of spatial resolution allowed by the model; and 3) the clinical attack rate and the effectiveness of the vaccine. In addition, we studied the effect of data incompleteness on the prediction reliability. Results Real-time predictions of the peak timing are found to be in good agreement with the empirical data, showing strong robustness to data that may not be accessible in real time (such as pre-exposure immunity and adherence to vaccination campaigns), but that affect the predictions for the attack rates. The timing and spatial unfolding of the pandemic are critically sensitive to the level of mobility data integrated into the model. Conclusions Our results show that large-scale models can be used to provide valuable real-time forecasts of influenza spreading, but they require high-performance computing. The quality of the forecast depends on the level of data integration, thus stressing the need for high-quality data in population-based models, and of progressive updates of validated available empirical knowledge to inform these models.
Data-driven modeling of systemic delay propagation under severe meteorological conditions
Pablo Fleurquin,José J. Ramasco,Victor M. Eguiluz
Physics , 2013,
Abstract: The upsetting consequences of weather conditions are well known to any person involved in air transportation. Still the quantification of how these disturbances affect delay propagation and the effectiveness of managers and pilots interventions to prevent possible large-scale system failures needs further attention. In this work, we employ an agent-based data-driven model developed using real flight performance registers for the entire US airport network and focus on the events occurring on October 27 2010 in the United States. A major storm complex that was later called the 2010 Superstorm took place that day. Our model correctly reproduces the evolution of the delay-spreading dynamics. By considering different intervention measures, we can even improve the model predictions getting closer to the real delay data. Our model can thus be of help to managers as a tool to assess different intervention measures in order to diminish the impact of disruptive conditions in the air transport system.
Dynamical Classes of Collective Attention in Twitter
Janette Lehmann,Bruno Gon?alves,José J. Ramasco,Ciro Cattuto
Computer Science , 2011,
Abstract: Micro-blogging systems such as Twitter expose digital traces of social discourse with an unprecedented degree of resolution of individual behaviors. They offer an opportunity to investigate how a large-scale social system responds to exogenous or endogenous stimuli, and to disentangle the temporal, spatial and topical aspects of users' activity. Here we focus on spikes of collective attention in Twitter, and specifically on peaks in the popularity of hashtags. Users employ hashtags as a form of social annotation, to define a shared context for a specific event, topic, or meme. We analyze a large-scale record of Twitter activity and find that the evolution of hastag popularity over time defines discrete classes of hashtags. We link these dynamical classes to the events the hashtags represent and use text mining techniques to provide a semantic characterization of the hastag classes. Moreover, we track the propagation of hashtags in the Twitter social network and find that epidemic spreading plays a minor role in hastag popularity, which is mostly driven by exogenous factors.
Tweets on the road
Maxime Lenormand,Antònia Tugores,Pere Colet,José J. Ramasco
Computer Science , 2014, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0105407
Abstract: The pervasiveness of mobile devices, which is increasing daily, is generating a vast amount of geo-located data allowing us to gain further insights into human behaviors. In particular, this new technology enables users to communicate through mobile social media applications, such as Twitter, anytime and anywhere. Thus, geo-located tweets offer the possibility to carry out in-depth studies on human mobility. In this paper, we study the use of Twitter in transportation by identifying tweets posted from roads and rails in Europe between September 2012 and November 2013. We compute the percentage of highway and railway segments covered by tweets in 39 countries. The coverages are very different from country to country and their variability can be partially explained by differences in Twitter penetration rates. Still, some of these differences might be related to cultural factors regarding mobility habits and interacting socially online. Analyzing particular road sectors, our results show a positive correlation between the number of tweets on the road and the Average Annual Daily Traffic on highways in France and in the UK. Transport modality can be studied with these data as well, for which we discover very heterogeneous usage patterns across the continent.
Characterization of delay propagation in the US air transportation network
Pablo Fleurquin,José J. Ramasco,Victor M. Eguíluz
Computer Science , 2013,
Abstract: Complex networks provide a suitable framework to characterize air traffic. Previous works described the world air transport network as a graph where direct flights are edges and commercial airports are vertices. In this work, we focus instead on the properties of flight delays in the US air transportation network. We analyze flight performance data in 2010 and study the topological structure of the network as well as the aircraft rotation. The properties of flight delays, including the distribution of total delays, the dependence on the day of the week and the hour-by-hour evolution within each day, are characterized paying special attention to flights accumulating delays longer than 12 hours. We find that the distributions are robust to changes in takeoff or landing operations, different moments of the year or even different airports in the contiguous states. However, airports in remote areas (Hawaii, Alaska, Puerto Rico) can show peculiar distributions biased toward long delays. Additionally, we show that long delayed flights have an important dependence on the destination airport.
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