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Our goal is to reproduce inflation through the coupling between the
non-minimal first derivative of the scalar field and the Einstein tensor in which we
introduced a potential. We analyse the inflation by examining the equation of state, the
expansion parameter and the scale factor. We have shown that when the potential
is proportional to the field φ and proportional to
the square of the field, inflation does not appear; but when the potential is an exponential
function of the scalar field, this model brings up inflation. Inflation does not occur when the time t is near
minus infinity but it is noticed a few units of Planck time.
In this paper, time series modelling is examined with a special application to modelling inflation data in Tanzania. In particular the theory of univariate non linear time series analysis is explored and applied to the inflation data spanning from January 1997 to December 2010. Time series models namely, the autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) (with their extensions to the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity ARCH (GARCH)) models are fitted to the data. The stages in the model building namely, identification, estimation and checking have been explored and applied to the data. The best fitting model is selected based on how well the model captures the stochastic variation in the data (goodness of fit). The goodness of fit is assessed through the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) and minimum standard error (MSE). Based on minimum AIC and BIC values, the best fit GARCH models tend to be GARCH(1,1) and GARCH(1,2). After estimation of the parameters of selected models, a series of diagnostic and forecast accuracy test are performed. Having satisfied with all the model assumptions, GARCH(1,1) model is found to be the best model for forecasting. Based on the selected model, twelve months inflation rates of Tanzania are forecasted in sample period (that is from January 2010 to December 2010). From the results, it is observed that the forecasted series are close to the actual data series.
The purpose of this paper is to empirically
analyze the effects of the quality of institutions on inflation. Using panel
data from 1991 to 2007, we find that increase in institutional development
which is measured by the ratio of domestic credit to private sector to GDP has
significant and sizeable effect on inflation. This paper finds that in
countries with high inflation rates, financial sectors cannot resist current
levels of inflation and banking system does not decrease inflation in the
environment where private banks and financial companies have adapted to
existing monetary environment.
The link between inflation and economic growth is one of the most important controversies in the economic literature. This paper investigates the short-run and the long-run relationship between the economic growth and the inflation of three Asian courtiers over the period 1980-2010. The methodology used in the study is cointegration and causality test. Johansen’s cointegration test and bound test approach were performed on the variables which have been tested for the stationary property using Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips and Perron tests in order to examine the cointegration between the economic growth and the inflation. Vector error correction and Granger Causality test were further performed to discover the short run dynamics of the relationship between the variables and identify the direction of causality. The results reveal that there is a long run negative and significant relationship between the economic growth and inflation in Sri Lanka. Whereas no statistically significant relationships were found between the variables in China and in India, a negative and significant short run relationship was found for China. The causality results reveal that there is a unidirectional causality that runs from the economic growth to the inflation in China. The paper discusses the important policy implications of the results.
The study examines money supply and inflation rate in Nigeria. Secondary data that ranged between 1970-2008 were sourced from the CBN Statistical Bulletin. The study used Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model. The stationary properties of the model were also explored. The results revealed that money supply and exchange rate were stationary at the level while oil revenue and interest rate were stationary at the first difference. Results from the causality test indicate that there exists a unidirectional causality between money supply and inflation rate as well as interest rate and inflation rate. The causality test runs from money supply to inflation, from the interest rate to inflation and from interest rate to money supply. The paper concludes that government should use the level of inflation as an operational guide in measuring the effectiveness of its monetary policy.