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A new circulation type classification based upon Lagrangian air trajectories
Alexandre M. Ramos,Michael Sprenger,Heini Wernli,Ana M. Durán-Quesada,Luis Gimeno
Frontiers in Earth Science , 2014, DOI: 10.3389/feart.2014.00029
Abstract: A new classification method of the large-scale circulation characteristic for a specific target area (NW Iberian Peninsula) is presented, based on the analysis of 90-h backward trajectories arriving in this area calculated with the 3-D Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART. A cluster analysis is applied to separate the backward trajectories in up to five representative air streams for each day. Specific measures are then used to characterize the distinct air streams (e.g., curvature of the trajectories, cyclonic or anticyclonic flow, moisture evolution, origin and length of the trajectories). The robustness of the presented method is demonstrated in comparison with the Eulerian Lamb weather type classification. A case study of the 2003 heatwave is discussed in terms of the new Lagrangian circulation and the Lamb weather type classifications. It is shown that the new classification method adds valuable information about the pertinent meteorological conditions, which are missing in an Eulerian approach. The new method is climatologically evaluated for the 5-year time period from December 1999 to November 2004. The ability of the method to capture the inter-seasonal circulation variability in the target region is shown. Furthermore, the multi-dimensional character of the classification is shortly discussed, in particular with respect to inter-seasonal differences. Finally, the relationship between the new Lagrangian classification and the precipitation in the target area is studied.
Meteorological Influences on the Incidence of Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage – A Single Center Study of 511 Patients
Marian Christoph Neidert, Michael Sprenger, Heini Wernli, Jan-Karl Burkhardt, Niklaus Krayenbühl, Oliver Bozinov, Luca Regli, Christoph Michael Woernle
PLOS ONE , 2013, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0081621
Abstract: Objective To assess the potential meteorological influence on the incidence of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Previous studies used inhomogeneous patient groups, insufficient study periods or inappropriate statistics. Patients and Methods We analyzed 511 SAH admissions between 2004 and 2012 for which aneurysmal rupture occurred within the Zurich region. The hourly meteorological parameters considered are: surface pressure, 2-m temperature, relative humidity and wind gusts, sunshine, and precipitation. For all parameters we investigate three complementary statistical measures: i) the time evolution from 5 days before to 5 days after the SAH occurrence; ii) the deviation from the 10-year monthly mean; and iii) the change relative to the parameter's value two days before SAH occurrence. The statistical significance of the results is determined using a Monte Carlo simulation combined with a re-sampling technique (1000×). Results Regarding the meteorological parameters considered, no statistically significant signal could be found. The distributions of deviations relative to the climatology and of the changes during the two days prior to SAH events agree with the distributions for the randomly chosen days. The analysis was repeated separately for winter and summer to exclude compensating effects between the seasons. Conclusion By using high-quality meteorological data analyzed with a sophisticated and robust statistical method no clearly identifiable meteorological influence for the SAH events considered can be found. Further studies on the influence of the investigated parameters on SAH incidence seem redundant.
Digital Health Platform Complementor Strategies and Effectual Reasoning  [PDF]
Anssi Smedlund, Petra Turkama, Heini Ik?valko
Journal of Service Science and Management (JSSM) , 2018, DOI: 10.4236/jssm.2018.114025
Abstract: Digital platform based markets are starting to dominate many sectors of the economy and society. Apple Healthkit and Google Fit are examples of fitness data platforms and focal points of connected preventive healthcare markets. Application developers are increasingly complementing platforms instead of bringing stand-alone services to the market. However, studies on these complementors’ strategies are still rare. This paper examines complementors’ strategies in joining digital platforms in preventive healthcare sector through an exploratory case study. The strategies are created by identifying themes and subthemes from interviews with complementors, and evaluating them through effectual reasoning lens. Effectual reasoning is selected as the assessment approach due to increased ecosystem complexity and strategic choices caused by accumulating end-user data, processes, user experience and emerging communities. This paper states that complementors can attach their application not only to the stable technological core maintained by the platform owner, but also dynamic elements being co-created among other platform participants. The paper contributes to the ongoing discussion and platform literature on complementor strategies.
Regulation of Human Formyl Peptide Receptor 1 Synthesis: Role of Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms, Transcription Factors, and Inflammatory Mediators
Heini M. Miettinen
PLOS ONE , 2012, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0028712
Abstract: The gene encoding the human formyl peptide receptor 1 (FPR1) is heterogeneous, containing numerous single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Here, we examine the effect of these SNPs on gene transcription and protein translation. We also identify gene promoter sequences and putative FPR1 transcription factors. To test the effect of codon bias and codon pair bias on FPR1 expression, four FPR1 genetic variants were expressed in human myeloid U937 cells fused to a reporter gene encoding firefly luciferase. No significant differences in luciferase activity were detected, suggesting that the translational regulation and protein stability of FPR1 are modulated by factors other than the SNP codon bias and the variant amino acid properties. Deletion and mutagenesis analysis of the FPR1 promoter showed that a CCAAT box is not required for gene transcription. A ?88/41 promoter construct resulted in the strongest transcriptional activity, whereas a ?72/41 construct showed large reduction in activity. The region between ?88 and ?72 contains a consensus binding site for the transcription factor PU.1. Mutagenesis of this site caused significant reduction in reporter gene expression. The PU.1 binding was confirmed in vivo by chromatin immunoprecipitation, and the binding to nucleotides ?84 to ?76 (TTCCTATTT) was confirmed in vitro by an electrophoretic mobility shift assay. Thus, similar to many other myeloid genes, FPR1 promoter activity requires PU.1. Two single nucleotide polymorphisms at ?56 and ?54 did not significantly affect FPR1 gene expression, despite differences in binding of transcription factor IRF1 in vitro. Inflammatory mediators such as interferon-γ, tumor necrosis factor-α, and lipopolysaccharide did not increase FPR1 promoter activity in myeloid cells, whereas differentiation induced by DMSO and retinoic acid enhanced the activity. This implies that the expression of FPR1 in myeloid cells is developmentally regulated, and that the differentiated cells are equipped for immediate response to microbial infections.
A case study on the formation and evolution of ice supersaturation in the vicinity of a warm conveyor belt's outflow region
P. Spichtinger, K. Gierens,H. Wernli
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) & Discussions (ACPD) , 2005,
Abstract: A case study is presented on the formation and evolution of an ice-supersaturated region (ISSR) that was detected by a radiosonde in NE Germany at 06:00 UTC 29 November 2000. The ISSR was situated in the vicinity of the outflow region of a warm conveyor belt associated with an intense event of cyclogenesis in the eastern North Atlantic. Using ECMWF analyses and trajectory calculations it is determined when the air parcels became supersaturated and later subsaturated again. In the case considered, the state of air parcel supersaturation can last for longer than 24h. The ISSR was unusually thick: while the mean vertical extension of ISSRs in NE Germany is about 500m, the one investigated here reached 3km. The ice-supersaturated region investigated was bordered both vertically and horizontally by strongly subsaturated air. Near the path of the radiosonde the ISSR was probably cloud free, as inferred from METEOSAT infrared images. However, at other locations within the ISSR it is probable that there were cirrus clouds. Relative humidity measurements obtained by the Lindenberg radiosonde are used to correct the negative bias of the ECMWF humidity and to construct two-dimensional maps of ice supersaturation over Europe during the considered period. A systematic backward trajectory analysis for the ISSRs on these maps shows that the ISSR air masses themselves experienced only a moderate upward motion during the previous days, whereas parts of the ISSRs were located just above strongly ascending air masses from the boundary layer. This indicates qualitatively that warm conveyor belts associated with mid-latitude cyclogenesis are disturbances that can induce the formation of ISSRs in the upper troposphere. The ISSR maps also lead us to a new perception of ISSRs as large dynamic regions of supersaturated air where cirrus clouds can be embedded at some locations while there is clear air at others.
The Mineral Dust Cycle in EMAC 2.40: sensitivity to the spectral resolution and the dust emission scheme
G. Gl ser, A. Kerkweg,H. Wernli
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) & Discussions (ACPD) , 2012,
Abstract: This first detailed analysis of the mineral dust cycle in the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model system investigates the performance of two dust emission schemes, following the approach of Balkanski et al. (2004) and Tegen et al. (2002), respectively, and the influence of the horizontal model resolution. Here the spectral resolutions T42, T63, T85, and T106 are investigated. A basic sulphur chemistry, enabling the coating of insoluble dust particles to make them soluble, is employed in order to realistically describe the ageing and wet deposition of mineral dust. Independent of the dust emission scheme the five-year simulations with the horizontal resolutions T42 and T63 produce unrealistically high emissions at some grid points in the Tarim Basin in Central Asia, leading to very high dust loads in polar regions. With these coarse resolutions, dust source grid points in the basin and elevated grid points of the Himalayas with high wind speeds cannot be distinguished, causing this overestimation. In T85 and T106 these regions are well separated and considerably less dust is emitted there. With the chosen model setup, the dust emission scheme by Balkanski et al. (2004) places the global maximum of emissions in the Thar Desert in India. This is unrealistic as the Sahara Desert is known to be the largest dust source in the world. This is the main deficiency of this scheme compared to the one by Tegen et al. (2002), which, based on a qualitative comparison to AEROCOM data, produces a very reasonable distribution of emissions and dust loads in simulations with resolutions T85 and T106. For future climate simulations with EMAC focusing on mineral dust, we recommend to use the dust emission scheme by Tegen et al. (2002) and a model resolution of at least T85. Simulations of two selected episodes and comparison to observational data sets show that in this model configuration EMAC is able to realistically simulate also intense, episodic events of dust emission and long-range transport.
Detection, tracking and event localization of jet stream features in 4-D atmospheric data
S. Limbach, E. Sch mer,H. Wernli
Geoscientific Model Development (GMD) & Discussions (GMDD) , 2012, DOI: 10.5194/gmd-5-457-2012
Abstract: We introduce a novel algorithm for the efficient detection and tracking of features in spatiotemporal atmospheric data, as well as for the precise localization of the occurring genesis, lysis, merging and splitting events. The algorithm works on data given on a four-dimensional structured grid. Feature selection and clustering are based on adjustable local and global criteria, feature tracking is predominantly based on spatial overlaps of the feature's full volumes. The resulting 3-D features and the identified correspondences between features of consecutive time steps are represented as the nodes and edges of a directed acyclic graph, the event graph. Merging and splitting events appear in the event graph as nodes with multiple incoming or outgoing edges, respectively. The precise localization of the splitting events is based on a search for all grid points inside the initial 3-D feature that have a similar distance to two successive 3-D features of the next time step. The merging event is localized analogously, operating backward in time. As a first application of our method we present a climatology of upper-tropospheric jet streams and their events, based on four-dimensional wind speed data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses. We compare our results with a climatology from a previous study, investigate the statistical distribution of the merging and splitting events, and illustrate the meteorological significance of the jet splitting events with a case study. A brief outlook is given on additional potential applications of the 4-D data segmentation technique.
The isotopic composition of precipitation from a winter storm – a case study with the limited-area model COSMOiso
S. Pfahl, H. Wernli,K. Yoshimura
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) & Discussions (ACPD) , 2012,
Abstract: Stable water isotopes are valuable tracers of the atmospheric water cycle, and potentially provide useful information also on weather-related processes. In order to further explore this potential, the water isotopes H218O and HDO are incorporated into the limited-area model COSMO. In a first case study, the new COSMOiso model is used for simulating a winter storm event in January 1986 over the eastern United States associated with intense frontal precipitation. The modelled isotope ratios in precipitation and water vapour are compared to spatially distributed δ18O observations. COSMOiso very accurately reproduces the statistical distribution of δ18O in precipitation, and also the synoptic-scale spatial pattern and temporal evolution agree well with the measurements. Perpendicular to the front that triggers most of the rainfall during the event, the model simulates a gradient in the isotopic composition of the precipitation, with high δ18O values in the warm air and lower values in the cold sector behind the front. This spatial pattern is created through an interplay of large scale air mass advection, removal of heavy isotopes by precipitation at the front and microphysical interactions between rain drops and water vapour beneath the cloud base. This investigation illustrates the usefulness of high resolution, event-based model simulations for understanding the complex processes that cause synoptic-scale variability of the isotopic composition of atmospheric waters. In future research, this will be particularly beneficial in combination with laser spectrometric isotope observations with high temporal resolution.
Detection, tracking and event localization of interesting features in 4-D atmospheric data
S. Limbach,E. Sch?mer,H. Wernli
Geoscientific Model Development Discussions , 2011, DOI: 10.5194/gmdd-4-3013-2011
Abstract: We introduce a novel algorithm for the efficient detection and tracking of interesting features in spatial-temporal atmospheric data, as well as for the precise localization of the occurring genesis, lysis, merging and splitting events. The algorithm is based on the well-known region growing segmentation method. We extended the basic idea towards the analysis of the complete 4-D dataset, identifying segments representing the spatial features and their development over time. Each segment consists of one set of distinct 3-D features per time step. The algorithm keeps track of the successors of each 3-D feature, constructing the so-called event graph of each segment. The precise localization of the splitting events is based on a search for all grid points inside the initial 3-D feature which have a similar distance to all successive 3-D features of the next time step. The merging event is localized analogously considering inverted direction of time. We tested the implementation on a four-dimensional field of wind speed data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses and computed a climatology of upper-tropospheric jet streams and their events. We compare our results with a previous climatology, investigate the statistical distribution of the merging and splitting events, and illustrate the meteorological significance of the jet splitting events with a case study. A brief outlook is given on additional potential applications of the 4-D data segmentation technique.
An online trajectory module (version 1.0) for the non-hydrostatic numerical weather prediction model COSMO
A. K. Miltenberger,S. Pfahl,H. Wernli
Geoscientific Model Development Discussions , 2013, DOI: 10.5194/gmdd-6-1223-2013
Abstract: A module to calculate online trajectories has been implemented into the non-hydrostatic limited-area weather prediction and climate model COSMO. Whereas offline trajectories are calculated with wind fields from model output, which is typically available every one to six hours, online trajectories use the simulated wind field at every model time step (typically less than a minute) to solve the trajectory equation. As a consequence, online trajectories much better capture the short-term temporal fluctuations of the wind field, which is particularly important for mesoscale flows near topography and convective clouds, and they do not suffer from temporal interpolation errors between model output times. The numerical implementation of online trajectories in the COSMO model is based upon an established offline trajectory tool and takes full account of the horizontal domain decomposition that is used for parallelization of the COSMO model. Although a perfect workload balance cannot be achieved for the trajectory module (due to the fact that trajectory positions are not necessarily equally distributed over the model domain), the additional computational costs are fairly small for high-resolution simulations. Various options have been implemented to initialize online trajectories at different locations and times during the model simulation. As a first application of the new COSMO module an Alpine North F hn event in summer 1987 has been simulated with horizontal resolutions of 2.2 km, 7 km, and 14 km. It is shown that low-tropospheric trajectories calculated offline with one- to six-hourly wind fields can significantly deviate from trajectories calculated online. Deviations increase with decreasing model grid spacing and are particularly large in regions of deep convection and strong orographic flow distortion. On average, for this particular case study, horizontal and vertical positions between online and offline trajectories differed by 50–190 km and 150–750 m, respectively, after 24 h. This first application illustrates the potential for Lagrangian studies of mesoscale flows in high-resolution convection-resolving simulations using online trajectories.
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