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Search Results: 1 - 10 of 1291 matches for " Frederick Bazimaziki "
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Developing a Forest Management Plan (DFMP) for Gatsibo District in the Eastern Province of Rwanda  [PDF]
Felix Rurangwa, Mwangi James Kinyanjui, Frederick Bazimaziki, Jacques Peeters, Anicet Munyehirwe, Francis Musoke, Gaspard Nelson Habiyaremye, Dismas Bakundukize, Prime Ngabonziza, Jost Uwase
Open Journal of Forestry (OJF) , 2018, DOI: 10.4236/ojf.2018.82017
Abstract: In support of conservation of its fragile land resource, the government of Rwanda has proposed the management of all forests in the country under a specific management plan. This assignment sought to develop a management plan for the public productive forests of Gatsibo District in Eastern province of Rwanda. Data was collected from 1468 plots, proportionally allocated by size to the 375 forest stands. Information about the forest (qualitative data) was recorded and then forest measurements (inventory) done in a concentric cycle of 9.77 m and 3.99 m radius and all data recorded in a digital format using the survey CTO platform. The data was summarized and analyzed in a harmonized forest management tool for Rwanda comprising of six interlinked excel files based on Rwanda’s silvicultural regimes and treatments. This analysis resulted to planning for silvicultural activities in each forest up to the year 2070. Results show that the public plantation forests of Gatsibo are poorly stocked mainly due to poor management and the best stocked forest had a basal area of only 13.3 m2/ha. This implied low forest volumes for each of the wood requirements; timber wood, service wood and energy wood. Eucalyptus forests are the most common but are poorly stocked compared to the Pinus patula forests which are even aged by plantation. A projection of stocks shows that the forests can be sustained with an average wood volume of 73 m3/ha, to provide harvests yearly and reduce the wood supply and demand gap in the district. A viability analysis indicates that some forests are viable for leasing with good profits in the short term (10 years) and full term planning (40 years). However, some forests may not be commercially viable due to their current stocks and agro bioclimatic conditions, and these would be rehabilitated for ecosystem services. This plan supports the restoration of the forests of Gatsibo district through provision of specific guidelines for the management of the forests.
Disequilibrium Pricing Theory—Bubbles and Recessions  [PDF]
Frederick Betz
Theoretical Economics Letters (TEL) , 2014, DOI: 10.4236/tel.2014.41009
Abstract:

How can one track a financial bubble as a likely precursor to bank panics and subsequent recessions? We model the Minsky-Keynes depiction of a financial marketby extending the “equilibrium-price” model to a “disequilibrium-price” model, through adding a third dimension of time. In this way, we use a topological graphic approach to see how the models from the two schools of economics, exogenous and endogenous, relate to each other as complementary models of production and financial sub-systems. These economic models are partial models in an economynot a model of the whole economy. However, such partial models can be used to anticipate financial bubbleshence bank runs and recessions due to bank runswhich typically follow.

Analyses of Physical Data to Evaluate the Potential to Identify Class I Injection Well Fluid Migration Risk  [PDF]
Frederick Bloetscher
Journal of Environmental Protection (JEP) , 2014, DOI: 10.4236/jep.2014.56057
Abstract:

Injection wells have been used for disposal of fluids for nearly 100 years. Design of injection well systems has advanced over the years, but environmental concerns due to the potential for migration of injected fluids remain. Fluids range from hazardous materials, to mining waste to treated wastewater. This paper presents an evaluation of wells injecting treated wastewater to assess which create the greatest risk to migration potential. Prior studies have looked at the risks of Class I injection wells for wastewater disposal, but limited data were available at that time. This research involved collecting data and evaluating the differences as a means to predict the potential for fluid migration in the wells. There were four issues that might portend migration: well depth-shallower wells tended to have more migration; the tightness of the confining unit immediately above the injection zone; well age; and the use of tubing and packers. Florida is moving away from tubing and packer wells which may be an indicative of this issue. The results provide a pathway to investigate injection wells in other states.

Disequilibrium Pricing—Greek Euro Crisis  [PDF]
Frederick Betz
Theoretical Economics Letters (TEL) , 2014, DOI: 10.4236/tel.2014.49113
Abstract: Financial instability in Greece began in 2009 when the interest rates on Greek sovereign bonds surged; and this can be graphed in a “price disequilibrium” model. To explain how this came about, we create a systems-dynamics model of the Greek fiscal system. Government fiscal systems are not a kind of a “causal” system, but a “structural-functional” system instead. This approach is in the spirit of the Keynes-Minsky model of a financial market as a “dynamic” of the value of capital assets. Financial bubbles occur from “perceptions”—cognitive “reflexivity” in Soros’ term—as expectations of the future values in a financial market. The Greek government fiscal crisis is a “Minsky moment”, which occurs at a time when traders in a financial market have moved from speculative finance to the unstable reflexivity in Ponzi finance. The governments in Greece had indulged in the dynamics of a budget policy of “Ponzi finance”. Unsound fiscal policy over many years had accumulated a very large and increasing government debt—until bond market “reflexive cognition” triggered the Greek fiscal crisis in 2010. The “reflexive perception” of bond traders was that either the Greek government must “default” or be “bailed out”.
Private and Public Debt Markets in Disequilibrium Theory  [PDF]
Frederick Betz
Theoretical Economics Letters (TEL) , 2015, DOI: 10.4236/tel.2015.55073
Abstract: In disequilibrium pricing of financial markets, excesses in either public debt or private debt can trigger a financial crisis, with attendant bank panics and recessions. For example, in the Euro crisis beginning in 2010, financial contagion in the sovereign bond market has spread among five nations: Greece, Ireland, Cyprus, Portugal, and Spain. But the reasons for the contagion was initially different for the countries, due to either disequilibrium pricing in public debt markets or disequilibrium pricing in private debt markets. In previous papers, we introduced a time-independent supply-demand model (three-dimensional model) for disequilibrium pricing in financial markets [1] and a steady-state disequilibrium systems model for the run-up of a financial crisis in a public debt market [2]. In this paper we construct a time-dependent disequilibrium systems model for the run-up of financial crises in a private debt market. We analyze the empirical case of the 2010-12 Euro crisis in Spain (private debt crisis) and then compare this to the empirical case of the 2010-2015 Euro crisis in Greece (public debt crisis).
Disequilibrium Systems Representation of Growth Models—Harrod-Domar, Solow, Le-ontief, Minsky, and Why the U.S. Fed Opened the Discount Window to Money-Market Funds  [PDF]
Frederick Betz
Modern Economy (ME) , 2015, DOI: 10.4236/me.2015.612113
Abstract: One of the intriguing puzzles from the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-08 was this one: To save the U.S. economy, why did the U.S. Federal Reserve System (under the chair, Ben Bernanke) open its central bank discount window to the unregulated money-market funds? The discount window of a central bank is usually only open to legitimate banks; and money-market funds are not banks. But the action proved correct, and the crisis slipped into an economic recession and not a depression. Yet how can one theoretically explain Bernanke’s economic reasoning underlying this critical decision? For explanation of that event, we integrate several traditional economic models: 1) the growth models of Harrod-Domar and of Solow, 2) the production-consumption model of Leontief, and 3) Minsky’s price-disequilibrium model. The integration of these models is methodologically possible through a system dynamics representation of the algebraic forms of the traditional economic models. In a system dynamics model, economic flows become explicit, as well as do the connections between institutions. In this explanation, we see evidence for the economic postulate that: it is financial crises which trigger depressions and not production business-cycles. Production business-cycles trigger recessions.
Risk and Economic Development in the Provision of Public Infrastructure  [PDF]
Frederick Bloetscher
Journal of Environmental Protection (JEP) , 2018, DOI: 10.4236/jep.2018.99061
Abstract: A public water and sewer utility is created to develop safe, reliable and financially self-supporting potable water and sanitary sewage systems which will meet the water and sewerage needs of the areas served by the utility; to ensure that existing and future utility facilities are constructed, operated and managed at the least possible cost to the users without outside subsidies; and to develop a system that is compatible with the area’s future growth. To gain efficiencies in operation, these new facilities must be developed in accordance with the latest technical and professional standards to protect the health, safety, and welfare of the citizens served now or in the future. Hence a utility must construct new pipelines, pump stations and other infrastructure, whether that infrastructure is for growth, to improve existing service, or to replace infrastructure that has reached the end of its useful, economic, and/or physical life. In established or stable communities, the replacement of existing infrastructure, where it is no longer economical to operate, is deteriorated to a point where replacement is more cost effective than repairs due to wear, neglect or environmental conditions, or where the infrastructure no longer serves its intended purpose or meets regulatory standards, must be pursued. As a result, many established utilities have capital plans that contain many such replacement projects. The question is how much investment should be made. The intent of this paper is to evaluate investment in infrastructure made by public water and sewer utility systems. What was found among the utilities in Florida that were evaluated was that more than half are underinvesting in their infrastructure. Some are not investing at all although more research is needed because it appears that many utilities make large investments periodically as opposed to using pay-as-you-go methods. Large scale investments like bond issues impact rates. Economies-of-scale remain for large utilities. Smaller utilities compete with larger ones to control rates. The data gathered indicates that utilities are underfunded, and under-invested. To reduce potential health risks, this needs to change. At the same time, trends appear to be a key to assess the potential for at risk utilities. Hence a future project would review data for the past 15 - 20 years for trends, identify patterns of altered investments and denote how the 2008 financial crisis changed the utility finances. A road to recapture lost revenues and make the infrastructure more resilient can then be accomplished.
Capital Structures: Vectorizing the Harrod-Domar Model in Macro-Economics  [PDF]
Frederick Betz
Theoretical Economics Letters (TEL) , 2018, DOI: 10.4236/tel.2018.812170
Abstract: The epistemological status of economic theory is either as an idealistic pre-scription or a depiction of a factual reality in context. We examine the reality of the macro-economic model of Harrod-Domar in the context of the Japa-nese, Korean and American economic history. Empirically, one sees that the model remained ideal but incomplete in fact. The capital structures in an economy determined whether capital flowed ideally or otherwise. This is a cross-disciplinary research approach combining the economic perspective with the management perspective in the disciplines of the social sciences.
Theoretical Metric of Civilization: The Case of the International Court of Justice  [PDF]
Frederick Betz
Open Journal of Social Sciences (JSS) , 2019, DOI: 10.4236/jss.2019.71001
Abstract: The usefulness of a theoretical metric for civilization is that it can help to identify the kinds of progress which society can make that is universalized for all humanity. Societal systems perform the functions which provide the values and performance of the society, and wherein societal problems occur. In the concept of the level of “civilization” of a society, four kinds of measures can assess the progress of a society in attaining universalized values: Truth, Good, Beautiful, and Wealth. The value of Truth in our civilization is methodologically investigated by science. The value of Good in our civilization is politically pursued through democracy. The value of Beautiful in our civilization is seen in the preservation of the environment of the Earth. The value of Wealth in our civilization is generated through industrialization of societal production. We apply the theory to the historical case of the International Court of Justice and Yugoslav War Crimes to examine empirical evidence about the validity of a theoretical metric.
Why “Austerity” Failed in Greece: Testing the Validity of Macro-Economic Models  [PDF]
Frederick Betz, Elias Carayannis
Modern Economy (ME) , 2015, DOI: 10.4236/me.2015.66063
Abstract: During the Euro Crisis which began in 2009 and is still continuing in 2015, Greece provided an interesting case of an empirical test of some macro-economic theories—particularly the theory underpinning the European Union (EU) policy of “austerity”. Fiscal austerity had been imposed upon the Greek governments as the price of EU bailout of bankrupt Greece. But after five years, the EU austerity policy was judged by many as a failure, and Greece continued to struggle at the bottom of a depression. Underlying the austerity policies, there was a macro-economic model called the Polak model. We examine whether or not this model was valid in the Greek economic context. Identifying the conceptual model underlying economic policy is important to clarify the validity or the invalidity of the model assumptions upon which a policy rests. We compare the macro-economic Polak model to an alternative model of the Greek fiscal crisis as “disequilibrium-pricing” in financial markets. An empirically invalid model can suggest bad policy, which may not solve an economic problem but can even deepen a crisis. An empirically valid model can provide a realistic basis for formulating effective policy.
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