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Search Results: 1 - 10 of 972 matches for " Counterfactual Reasoning "
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Raciocínio contrafactual e modelos mentais
Byrne,Ruth M. J.; Quelhas,Ana Cristina;
Análise Psicológica , 1999,
Abstract: the central idea in this study is that ?... thinking about matters of fact and thinking about matters of possibility and impossibility are based on similar sorts of mental representations and cognitive processes? (byrne, 1997, p. 107). that is to say that people reason by constructing and revising mental models (e.g., johnson-laird, & byrne, 1991). counterfactual conditionals require reasoners to keep in mind not only what is presupposed to be true, but also what is suppositionally true but factually false (byrne, 1997, p. 117; cf. johnson-laird, & byrne, 1991, pp. 72-73). and the hypothesis that the initial representation of a counterfactual conditional is more explicit than the initial representation of a factual conditional, allows the prediction that modus tollens and denial of the antecedent inferences would be made more frequently from the counterfactual than from the factual conditionals. byrne and tasso (in press) found evidence for those predictions. in the present study, we look for replication of the data found by byrne and tasso, and we add some hypothesis related with the latencies to understand both kinds of conditionals, and to choose a conclusion. we use neutral conditionals like ?if there was a circle, then there was a triangle?, and we presented to participants the four conditional syllogisms in the superlab program.
Razonamiento contrafáctico, responsabilidad y culpa de la violencia contra las mujeres en la pareja: educación y medios de comunicación como factores preventivos
Segura,Susana;
Escritos de Psicología (Internet) , 2012, DOI: 10.5231/psy.writ.2012.0711
Abstract: this study focused on the perception of death due to intimate partner violence against women. i describe two experiments that analyzed the effects of controllability and perspective on the perceived causality of these events measured by means of counterfactual reasoning about the past and the future as much as attributions of responsibility and blame. the effects of empathy for a victim in the second experiment were also investigated. the participants' replies focused on controllable factors which were classified into four categories: perpetrator, victim, formal authority, and education and mass media. the results show that counterfactual reasoning depends on empathy whereas attributions depend on both empathy and perspective. these results demonstrate an association between these cognitive processes and also help to establish some factors that may prevent these events. finally, specific implications for education and the mass media are drawn from the study.
Razonamiento contrafáctico, responsabilidad y culpa de la violencia contra las mujeres en la pareja: educación y medios de comunicación como factores preventivos (Counterfactual reasoning, responsibility and blame for intimate partner violence against women: education and mass media as preventive factors)
Susana Segura
Escritos de Psicología , 2012,
Abstract: This study focused on the perception of death due to intimate partner violence against women. I describe two experiments that analyzed the effects of controllability and perspective on the perceived causality of these events measured by means of counterfactual reasoning about the past and the future as much as attributions of responsibility and blame. The effects of empathy for a victim in the second experiment were also investigated. The participants' replies focused on controllable factors which were classified into four categories: perpetrator, victim, formal authority, and education and mass media. The results show that counterfactual reasoning depends on empathy whereas attributions depend on both empathy and perspective. These results demonstrate an association between these cognitive processes and also help to establish some factors that may prevent these events. Finally, specific implications for education and the mass media are drawn from the study.
Statistical simulation and counterfactual analysis in social sciences
Fran?ois Gélineau,Pierre-Olivier Bédard,Mathieu Ouimet
Tutorials in Quantitative Methods for Psychology , 2012,
Abstract: In this paper, we present statistical simulation techniques of interest in substantial interpretation of regression results. Taking stock of recent literature on causality, we argue that such techniques can operate within a counterfactual framework. To illustrate, we report findings using post-electoral data on voter turnout.
“要不是”反事实条件句的情态问题研究
Research on modal verbs in “Yaobushi” counterfactual conditionals

章敏
- , 2016, DOI: 1672-3104(2016)02-0206-07
Abstract: 摘 要: 从“要不是”条件句的反事实语义出发,探讨“要不是”反事实条件句中的情态动词问题。发现“要不是”反事实条件句的后件具有一种情态黏附性,它能够强烈吸引同为非现实范畴下的情态范畴。不仅如此,它还在此过程中对情态动词内部不同语义类型进行选择,从而造成情态动词的不均衡现象。
Abstract: By analyzing the semantics of “yaobushi” counterfactual conditionals, the present essay attempts to discuss the modal verbs in it. The study draws a conclusion that the consequent part of “yaobushi” counterfactual conditionals is a kind of modal colligations which could attract and restrict the modal verbs and results in its imbalanced performance
Practical Stabilization of Counterfactual Quantum Cryptography  [PDF]
Musheng Jiang, Shihai Sun, Linmei Liang
Journal of Quantum Information Science (JQIS) , 2011, DOI: 10.4236/jqis.2011.13016
Abstract: A novel counterfactual quantum key distribution scheme was proposed by T.-G. Noh and a strict security analysis has been given by Z.-Q.Yin, in which two legitimate geographical separated couples may share secret keys even when the key carriers are not traveled in the quantum channel. However, there are still plenty of practical details in this protocol that haven’t been discussed yet, which are of significant importance in physical implementation. In this paper, we will give a practical analysis on such kind of counterfactual quantum cryptography in the aspects of quantum bit error rate (QBER) and stabilization. Furthermore, modified schemes are proposed, which can obtain lower QBER and will be much more robust on stabilization in physical implementation.
El proceso diagnóstico: (Primera parte)
Revista Colombiana de Gastroenterologia , 2004,
Abstract: diagnosis procedure is the synthesis by which physicians conclude and elaborate analysis of subjective and objective data, obtained by physical exam and technology. we revised the three reasoning strategies in the clinical reasoning: probabilistic, causal and deterministic for understanding of clinical cognition and enhance patient care. we emphasized in the bayesian reasoning especially in the format natural frequencies.
O efeito de ordem temporal no pensamento contrafactual das crian?as
Rasga,Célia; Quelhas,Ana Cristina;
Análise Psicológica , 2009,
Abstract: when adults think in a counterfactual way, about what might have been different in a random sequence of events, such as in the case of a cointossing game (heads or tails), they are influenced by the order in which these events take place, showing an effect of temporal order and thus attribute emotions, such as guilt (in the case of loss), to the last player. in this context we will present two experiments. in a first experiment we studied if the temporal order effect occurred in children, as well as the emotional judgments of sadness and guilt caused by this effect. and, moreover, we also wanted to know if this can be eliminated, as occurs in adults when the game is interrupted and then restarts from the beginning. we found that the effect of temporal order happens from 6 years old, but its reduction/elimination occurs only to 10 years of age, as expected, given the increased representational capacity of these children comparing to the younger. at the level of emotional trials, they differed over the ages. in a second experiment, we studied if the temporal order effect would take place in the children when of a positive result, as well as the emotional judgements of happiness and pride. we found that from early the children also show an effect of temporal order for beneficial results. at the level of the emotional judgments, this seems congruent with the temporal order effect. these results will be discussed in terms of his implications for the understanding of the development of the mental representations.
O pensamento contrafactual e a percep??o de crimes: revisitando Macrae, Milne e Griffiths (1993)...
Martins,Ana Cristina;
Análise Psicológica , 2003,
Abstract: macrae, milne and griffiths (1993) developed two studies in order to analyse the effect of counterfactual thought on crimes' perception. they manipulated counterfactual alternative proximity (study 1) and antecedent's normality (study 2) in the scenario. however, they didn't measure participants' thoughts. they just inferred indirectly counterfactuals' effects from crimes' evaluations. we proposed to replicate macrae et al.'s (1993) study 2 measuring participants' thoughts. we expected in exceptional condition participants to generate a greater number of counterfactuals, to percept the crime as more serious, to recommend a more severe punishment to the perpetrator and do exhibit a more sympathy toward the victim. results have infirmed all our hypotheses, not corroborating authors' findings. anchoring on the explication that these divergences were done to our introduction of counterfactuals' measure, we've conducted a second study that was the ?integral? replication of original work. again, we didn't reproduce macrae et al's (1993) results. general discussion is established around the model of counterfactual thought generation (roese & olson, 1995), the role of the participants' gender and the ways to measure counterfactuals by listing them. we also pose several methodological advertencies as well as new investigation questions in the domain.
Diferen?as intertemporais na média e distribui??o do desempenho escolar no Brasil: o papel do nível socioecon?mico, 1997 a 2005
Rodrigues, Clarissa Guimar?es;Rios-Neto, Eduardo Luiz Gon?alves;Pinto, Cristine Campos de Xavier;
Revista Brasileira de Estudos de Popula??o , 2011, DOI: 10.1590/S0102-30982011000100002
Abstract: it is general consensus in the literature on the evaluation of education that the socioeconomic level of students is the most important factor for explaining, at any given moment, the variations in the school performance of students evaluated by the basic education evaluation system (saeb). it is not known, however, how strongly temporal change in socioeconomic conditions affect changes in averages and distributions of school performance among the several different cycles of the saeb. to investigate this question we used the method of counter-factual decomposition, developed by juhn, murphy and pierce (1993). this method enables researchers isolate the contribution of the variation in the composition and return of socioeconomic level on the variation in the averages and distributions of school performance. the data used was taken from the saeb applied in 1997 to 2005 to the cohort of students in the fourth grade of elementary education evaluated in mathematics. the main findings show that the increase in school coverage in the late 1990s lowered the average socioeconomic level of the students, was a factor in the reduction of a rise in inequality in school performance (composition effect). at the same time, there were reductions in the sensitivity of school performance to socioeconomic level (return effect). this result has ambiguous implications. on the one hand, it contributes to a reduction in average school performance and, on the other, helps equalize the distribution of scores between 1997 and 2005.
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