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Search Results: 1 - 10 of 1910 matches for " Azhar Iqbal "
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Mean Diversion: When Getting Back to the Old Economy Isn’t Possible
Azhar Iqbal
International Journal of Economics and Finance , 2011, DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v3n1p44
Abstract: Policy makers love to speak about restoring the economy and the associated “good” jobs as voters imagine they were in the past. But is such economic nostalgia reasonable in a dynamic global economy? Moreover, has it actually been true that the economy, and particularly the labor market, were ever as stable as we imagine? Our work here suggests that the labor market has been constantly evolving since 1970 and that there is no tendency to return to “normal” if such a normal were to be defined as it was in the good old days. Moreover, labor market policies built on such nostalgia in an attempt to return to the past are misplaced at best and likely to hurt workers more by providing false hopes and also lead to a misallocation of economic resources than if forward looking policies were adopted to adapt workers for the future of the labor market opportunities. Our efforts suggest that since 1970 the mean and standard deviation of employment growth had actually been decreasing for each decade up until the 1990-99. For the most recent (2000-09) period, the standard deviation shows an uptick and a significant reduction in the mean. Moreover, when we evaluate the entire period as a whole, 1970-2009, we find that the trend coefficient is statistically significant and has a negative sign. That implies the employment growth rate has a decreasing pattern over time. In addition, the high volatility in the employment series is evidence by a standard deviation (1.93%) that is greater than the mean (1.63%). We apply the traditional unit root tests, efficient unit root tests, and unit root tests with structural break on the employment series. In addition, we follow Hamilton’s approach and apply an Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) approach on the employment series Our results suggest that the level of the employment growth rates is mean-diverting and subject to a structural break. Second, in the presence of the ARCH effect, OLS standard errors can be misleading, with a spurious regression possibility. Finally, the ARCH effect and unit root problem have serious consequences for forecasting and the forecast band could be narrower than the actual. Key Words: Employment; Structural Change; ARCH; Mean Diversion.JEL Classification: C10; J21; J30
Impact of entanglement on the game-theoretical concept of evolutionary stability
Azhar Iqbal
Physics , 2005,
Abstract: An example of a quantum game is presented that explicitly shows the impact of entanglement on the game-theoretical concept of evolutionary stability.
Investigations in quantum games using EPR-type set-ups
Azhar Iqbal
Physics , 2006,
Abstract: Research in quantum games has flourished during recent years. However, it seems that opinion remains divided about their true quantum character and content. For example, one argument says that quantum games are nothing but 'disguised' classical games and that to quantize a game is equivalent to replacing the original game by a different classical game. The present thesis contributes towards the ongoing debate about quantum nature of quantum games by developing two approaches addressing the related issues. Both approaches take Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR)-type experiments as the underlying physical set-ups to play two-player quantum games. In the first approach, the players' strategies are unit vectors in their respective planes, with the knowledge of coordinate axes being shared between them. Players perform measurements in an EPR-type setting and their payoffs are defined as functions of the correlations, i.e. without reference to classical or quantum mechanics. Classical bimatrix games are reproduced if the input states are classical and perfectly anti-correlated, as for a classical correlation game. However, for a quantum correlation game, with an entangled singlet state as input, qualitatively different solutions are obtained. The second approach uses the result that when the predictions of a Local Hidden Variable (LHV) model are made to violate the Bell inequalities the result is that some probability measures assume negative values. With the requirement that classical games result when the predictions of a LHV model do not violate the Bell inequalities, our analysis looks at the impact which the emergence of negative probabilities has on the solutions of two-player games which are physically implemented using the EPR-type experiments.
Studies in the Theory of Quantum Games
Azhar Iqbal
Physics , 2005,
Abstract: Theory of quantum games is a new area of investigation that has gone through rapid development during the last few years. Initial motivation for playing games, in the quantum world, comes from the possibility of re-formulating quantum communication protocols, and algorithms, in terms of games between quantum and classical players. The possibility led to the view that quantum games have a potential to provide helpful insight into working of quantum algorithms, and even in finding new ones. This thesis analyzes and compares some interesting games when played classically and quantum mechanically. A large part of the thesis concerns investigations into a refinement notion of the Nash equilibrium concept. The refinement, called an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS), was originally introduced in 1970s by mathematical biologists to model an evolving population using techniques borrowed from game theory. Analysis is developed around a situation when quantization changes ESSs without affecting corresponding Nash equilibria. Effects of quantization on solution-concepts other than Nash equilibrium are presented and discussed. For this purpose the notions of value of coalition, backwards-induction outcome, and subgame-perfect outcome are selected. Repeated games are known to have different information structure than one-shot games. Investigation is presented into a possible way where quantization changes the outcome of a repeated game. Lastly, two new suggestions are put forward to play quantum versions of classical matrix games. The first one uses the association of De Broglie's waves, with travelling material objects, as a resource for playing a quantum game. The second suggestion concerns an EPR type setting exploiting directly the correlations in Bell's inequalities to play a bi-matrix game.
Quantum correlations and Nash equilibria of a bi-matrix game
Azhar Iqbal
Mathematics , 2004, DOI: 10.1088/0305-4470/37/29/L04
Abstract: Playing a symmetric bi-matrix game is usually physically implemented by sharing pairs of 'objects' between two players. A new setting is proposed that explicitly shows effects of quantum correlations between the pairs on the structure of payoff relations and the 'solutions' of the game. The setting allows a re-expression of the game such that the players play the classical game when their moves are performed on pairs of objects having correlations that satisfy the Bell's inequalities. If players receive pairs having quantum correlations the resulting game cannot be considered another classical symmetric bi-matrix game. Also the Nash equilibria of the game are found to be decided by the nature of the correlations.
Playing games with EPR-type experiments
Azhar Iqbal
Mathematics , 2005, DOI: 10.1088/0305-4470/38/43/009
Abstract: An approach towards quantum games is proposed that uses the unusual probabilities involved in EPR-type experiments directly in two-player games.
Profits: Mean Diverting with High Volatility
John Silvia,Azhar Iqbal
International Journal of Economics and Finance , 2011, DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v3n2p200
Abstract: Even though the behavior of the U.S. profit growth varies over the economic cycle that variation itself drives investor behavior and asset prices. We raise three fundamental questions which are; first, does profit growth over time exhibit a mean-reverting behavior? Second, how volatile are profits and does this volatility obscure the message of profit growth? Finally, do profit growth rates vary between decades/ sub-samples? Our efforts suggest that since 1970 the mean and standard deviation of profit growth had actually been decreasing up until 1990s. For the most recent (2000-08) period, the profit growth shows an up-tick in both the mean and the standard deviation. For the entire period, 1970-2008, we find that the trend coefficient is statistically insignificant. We apply the traditional unit root tests, efficient unit root tests, and unit root tests with structural break on the profits series. In addition, we follow Hamilton’s approach and apply an ARCH approach on the profits series. Our empirical findings are consistent with the Schumpeter’s view, mean-diversion with a possibility of deviation from long-run trend growth. In addition to the factors introduced by Schumpeter there may be some exogenous shocks which could alter the long-run path of the profits.
Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, and Confidence
John Silvia,Azhar Iqbal
International Journal of Economics and Finance , 2011, DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v3n4p22
Abstract: The relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies is an on-going debate among macroeconomists. Our study is the first to examine the effect of monetary and fiscal policies on confidence. We provide a theoretical framework which highlights the role of confidence in business cycles as well as the effect of monetary and fiscal policies on confidence. Moreover, we discuss how monetary and fiscal policies restore confidence, which helps to lead to economic recovery from recessions/slowdowns. Furthermore, we test the effect of monetary and fiscal policies on confidence as well as on the real GDP.
A New Approach to Rank Forecasters in an Unbalanced Panel
John Silvia,Azhar Iqbal
International Journal of Economics and Finance , 2012, DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v4n9p108
Abstract: This study presents a new approach to ranking professional forecasters in an unbalanced panel. Ranking professional forecasters while not accounting for missing forecasts can lead to arbitrary results particularly depending on the forecasted variable and time period chosen. Here, our focus is on a third, very important but neglected, factor—the missing forecast. This paper identifies some serious issues related to the current methodology of some organizations, here we use the Bloomberg Survey as an example although Bloomberg is not alone with this problem. We re-rank top-10 forecasters of nonfarm payrolls using a new approach which accounts for missing forecasts. For many forecasters, the ranking based on our approach is significantly different than those of Bloomberg’s ranking. For instance, Bloomberg declared Credit Agricole as a winner (rank 1) but the new approach assigned 10th position (rank 10) to Credit Agricole. One major reason of different rankings for a firm is that Credit Agricole did not forecast for all 24 months and it was rewarded in the Bloomberg methodology for being absent in certain months. Our methodology does not reward a forecaster for being absent nor does it penalize a forecaster for submitting a forecast and thereby provides a fairer, more rigorous and accurate ranking. In addition, traditional forecast evaluation criteria, such as, MAE, MSE or RMSE are good for a balanced panel but not accurate for an unbalanced panel. Our approach provides a more rigorous and accurate forecasters ranking for any unbalanced panel.
Non-factorizable Joint Probabilities and Evolutionarily Stable Strategies in the Quantum Prisoner's Dilemma Game
Azhar Iqbal,Derek Abbott
Physics , 2009, DOI: 10.1016/j.physleta.2009.05.020
Abstract: The well known refinement of the Nash Equilibrium (NE) called an Evolutionarily Stable Strategy (ESS) is investigated in the quantum Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) game that is played using an Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen type setting. Earlier results report that in this scheme the classical NE remains intact as the unique solution of the quantum PD game. In contrast, we show here that interestingly in this scheme a non-classical solution for the ESS emerges for the quantum PD.
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