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Search Results: 1 - 10 of 42998 matches for " 蔡恒进 "
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中国崛起的历史定位与发展方式转变的切入点
The Historical Context of the Rise of China and the Entry Point of the Transformation of the Development Pattern
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Emergence and Transfer of Wealth (ETW) , 2012, DOI: 10.12677/etw.2012.21001
Abstract:
2007年在美国发生的次贷危机已转化为主权货币的全球博弈,而人民币升值是其中焦点。考察中国自秦以来和西方五百年来的发展历史,我们提出自我肯定需求的新概念和一个在分配环节的全新的供需理论。只要有可能,人对自己的评价一般高于他认知范围内的平均水平,在分配环节他更希望得到高于自己评估的份额。这种需求我们称之为自我肯定需求。大多数情况下,总的自我肯定需求必定大于其所在社会的当下产出,这就形成了一个缺口,这个缺口对任何统治者(或管理者)而言都是一个巨大的挑战:要维持一个社会的和谐稳定,这个缺口必须由额外的供给来填补。纵观历史,我们指出四种主要的额外供给方式:学习和自主创新、外部获取、透支未来以及崩溃后的再出发。国民的自我肯定需求是否得到适度的满足,正是国家兴衰的关键。中国的崛起是中国两千多年以来历史进程与全球五百年以来现代化进程的交汇点。学习和自主创新、外贸顺差以及再出发这三种财富的涌现方式同时在中国上演。大量涌现的资源是中国发展的动力,但是不合理的运用会驱使中国经济泡沫化,泡沫化的后果就是金融危机和公有资产快速流失,国家的发展潜力受到实质性损害。因此,我们提出创建一种以人为本的货币制度,为每一个公民建立社会保障个人账户并注资,将涌现的资源平均地分配给每一个公民,以此作为中国发展方式转变的最佳切入点。
The subprime mortgage crisis of the United States in 2007 has evolved into global game of sovereign currencies, and the appreciation of Chinese currency RMB has been one of the focuses. By analyzing the history of China since Qin Dynasty and the development history of western countries in the last five cen-turies, a new concept of self-assertiveness demand is introduced and a new theory of supply and demand in the process of income distributions is proposed. Self-assertiveness demands describe the demands originated from human cognitive tendency to confirm self value. Normally, people tend to give themselves higher than average evaluation within their scopes, and expect to receive more than they would be supplied, if possible. Therefore, the total self-assertiveness demands of a society tend to exceed the total current supplies. This gap is a challenge to any ruler or manager. To maintain a harmonious and stable society, the excessive demand has to be met with extra supplies. We propose four types of extra resource supplies in accordance with the challenge: learning and innovations, external acquisitions, overdraws from the future, and dynastic changes. It is the key to the rise and fall of nations that their citizens’ self-assertiveness demands are properly satisfied. China is now facing a chance of once-in-a-millennium, an intersection between Chinese two-millennium his- tory and the five-century global modernization. Three resource emergences, learning, trade surplus and re- starting from ruins, are taking place in China simultaneously. The abundant emerging resources are the driving force behind economic development, but failure to properly utilize the resources will lead to formation of economic bubbles, and the consequent bust of the bubbles will result in heavy losses of public wealth which in turn exerts permanent harms to sustainable development. It is, therefore, proposed to
自我肯定需求假设的认知综合性
The Syntextuality of the Hypothesis of Self-Assertiveness Demand
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汪恺,
Emergence and Transfer of Wealth (ETW) , 2013, DOI: 10.12677/ETW.2013.31001
Abstract:
本文通过回顾经济学发展史,指出经济理论在各个历史时期的认知局限性。基于“理性人”假设建立起的凯恩斯主义供需模型和国家干预机制未能重视经济个体源于肯定自我的正当需求,使国家干预在财富调控中效率低下;基于主观方法论的奥地利学派强调了人在交换理论框架下获得自我满足感的合理性,但基于先验论的奥地利学派未能给出指导财富分配的工具。自我肯定需求,来自主观的判断,并形成于认知范围内受客观条件制约的动态比较之中。自我肯定需求理论从认知的角度出发,阐释了财富的涌现与流转规律,建议构造财富再分配的高效信息工具,将为经济理论的发展提供新的方向。
The cognitive limitations are presented by reviewing the development of economic theories. The Keynesian mechanism of government intervention, which is based on the hypothesis of rational man, ignores individual economic demand on self-affirmation, leading to the failure in efficiency and justice in wealth dis- tribution and transfer. Austrian School, on the basis of subjective methodology, emphasizes the rationality of self-satisfaction under exchange activities, does not provide any instruments on wealth redistribution. Self- assertiveness demands describe the demands originated from human cognitive tendency to confirm self-values. It is a dynamic process originated between subjective and objective estimate of outside world. The self-as- sertiveness demand derived theories have offered explanations of the emergence and transfer of wealth, and proposed an efficient monetary instrument to realize wealth redistribution based on information technology, which could bringing about a new direction of the development of economic theories.
21世纪初期韩台经济发展分化原因分析
The Bifurcation of Economic Developments in South Korea and Taiwan in the Early Twenty-First Century
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汪恺,
Emergence and Transfer of Wealth (ETW) , 2013, DOI: 10.12677/ETW.2013.34009
Abstract:
韩国与台湾是典型的发展型国家(地区),二者具有相似的经济和社会发展历史背景,但在实现了高速增长阶段后最终分化,走上了不同的发展道路,并在21世纪初期前者持续增长而后者停滞不前。本文在自我肯定需求理论的框架内,应用“认知膜”和“自我肯定需求”解释韩台经济发展背后的根本原因,指出实现经济可持续增长的途径在于政府是否能够在认知膜的框架下满足国民自我肯定需求、驾驭国家(地区)经济,实现经济生态系统的平衡与进化发展。
South Korea maintained optimistic economic momentum whileTaiwanbore stagnation in the early twenty-first century. The analysis applies concepts of self-assertiveness demands and cognitive membrane to revealing the bifurcation of the two developmental states (regions) which had similar paths in economy and social development, and indicates that sustainable economic growth relies on the balanced and dynamic evolution processes coordinated by government under cognitive membranes.
人民币国际化进程的战略分析
A Strategic Analysis of RMB’s Internationalization
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汪恺,
Emergence and Transfer of Wealth (ETW) , 2014, DOI: 10.12677/ETW.2014.44008
Abstract:
人民币国际化是中国成长为世界大国的必由之路。法郎国际化失败的重要原因是综合国力不能与国际化进程相匹配。征战欧洲、争夺海上霸权的进程反而加速了法国国际地位的丧失和法郎的衰败。日元国际化的代价是资产泡沫化后长达20年的经济衰退。其原因是货币国际化进程中政治、经济自主权的缺失,以及资本市场的过度开放。本文分析了法郎和日元国际化进程中的问题,并引入自我肯定需求理论,认为在美元仍将主导国际货币体系数年中,管理好大国成长预期,在次要国际货币地位上,务实地调整国民经济、发展国内金融市场、寻求国际认可,来韬养国民自我肯定需求,是人民币国际化的战略核心。
The process of RMB internationalization is a growing need of the rise of China. The disreputable past of FRF and its fail of becoming an internationalized currency caused by expeditionary wars of France imply that the internationalization process of a currency must keep in pace of the growth of a nation. The Yen emerged as an international currency in the 1990s, but it came at painful cost of real estate bubble and subsequent recession in Japan. We review the history and apply the self- assertiveness demand theory to claim the risk of over accelerated internationalization process of currencies and offer a strategy of RMB’s internationalization.
古罗马帝国兴衰原因探讨
An Analysis of the Rise and Fall of the Roman Empire
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张晓玥,
Emergence and Transfer of Wealth (ETW) , 2012, DOI: 10.12677/ETW.2012.23013
Abstract:
一个国家的兴衰很大程度上依赖于该国的财富涌现能否满足人民的自我肯定需求。从公元前8世纪建城到公元2世纪,古罗马用了1000多年的时间崛起从而称霸欧、亚、非大陆,却在不到200年的时间里迅速瓦解衰败。本文通过分析古罗马人口和疆域变化,从财富涌现和流转的角度探索其兴衰的原因。古罗马的兴盛缘于侵略扩张与自主创新如土地分配和道路发展的共同作用,在600余年间实现人口增加600余倍和国土增加6000余倍的剧变。而当扩张逐渐停止、道路系统达到饱和后,透支未来和宗教便登上历史的舞台,成为维持帝国的主流方式。但无论财富如何增长都会有极限,当财富供需失去平衡、宗教的力量无法凝聚民众时,各种社会矛盾便相继爆发,罗马便日渐式微,最终走向灭亡。
The vicissitudes of a nation largely depends on whether its wealth emergence can meet people’s self-assertiveness demands. From the eighth century B. C. to the second century A. D., Roman had grown into the most powerful country dominating Europe, Asia and Africa within more than 1000 years. However, she just collapsed within less than 200 years. Based on the analysis of demographic and territorial changes of Roman, it is found that the rise of Roman results from a synergic effect of both expansions and innovations as indicated by road system constructions and land distributions. In about 600 years, the population and territory had increased by 600 times and 6000 times respectively. As expansions and road system constructions reached their limits, overdraw from the future and religion practice became the dominant governing method to maintain the empire. However, when the wealth emergence mentioned above exhausted and all governing institutions stopped functioning, Roman Empirecame to an end.
廉价货币时代捍卫消费者主权的货币制度
The Monetary Institution to Uphold Consumer Paramountcy in the Cheap-Money Era
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胡正刚,
Emergence and Transfer of Wealth (ETW) , 2012, DOI: 10.12677/ETW.2012.23012
Abstract:
消费者主权理论强调市场向生产者传递消费者意愿和偏好的功能,市场的拥护者将其视作高效生产的重要前提。然而在廉价货币政策的时代,消费者主权受到了严重的冲击。本文从消费者主权理论出发论证现阶段在中国构建以人为本货币制度的合理性和优越性。建立社会保障个人账户并由中央银行直接注资,使增发的货币由消费者持有,直接扩大有效需求。消费者根据自己的意愿和偏好在市场上选购所需的商品,将意愿和偏好通过市场传达给生产者。中国拥有世界上门类最全的制造业,企业可以根据市场传递的消费者需求信息安排生产。此时企业如同竞标者,不断提高生产能力与运营效率,以期获得消费者的货币“选票”。而充盈的“选票”,又可以满足企业的自我肯定需求,促进其发展。
Consumer paramountcy theory emphasizes the function of the market to convey consumers’ demands and preferences. Free market advocates view the function as an important prerequisite for efficient productions. However, consumers’ paramountcy has been seriously ignored in the era of cheap money policy. Based on consumer paramountcy theory, we demonstrate the rationality to set up a people-oriented monetary institution at present in China. Let consumers hold the increased currency, which is directly injected by the central bank into their social security personal accounts. Consumers purchase what they need in the market according to their desire and preferences. Chinahas developed the most extensive manufacturing industries in the world, producers can arrange their productions in response to consumer’s demand provided by the market. In this case, enterprises are like bidders, who keep improving their production and operational effi- ciency, so as to obtain the consumers’ “vote”—their money. Abundant “votes” can meet the self-assertiveness demands of the enterprises, thus promoting their development.
自我肯定需求理论视角下的苏联解体原因分析
An Analysis of the Disintegration of the Soviet Union from the Perspective of the Self-Assertiveness Demands
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耿嘉伟,
Emergence and Transfer of Wealth (ETW) , 2013, DOI: 10.12677/ETW.2013.34008
Abstract:
苏联解体是二十世纪人类最为重大的历史事件之一,东西方的学者对此提出过各种不同的解释。本文以自我肯定需求作为基本理论,分析了苏联在不同时期的发展情况,提出正是因为共同的自我肯定需求导致了斯大林模式在苏联初期的成功,也正是因为后期不同层面上的认知膜差异带来的自我肯定需求矛盾,造成了计划经济体制乃至整个苏联模式的失败。本文证明了构建共同的认知主体的重要性,以及满足各个认知主体的自我肯定需求对于国家经济制度建设的重要性,并在此基础上给出了对中国当前改革方向的建议。
The disintegration of the Soviet Union is a tremendous historical event in the 20th century. A new perspective of the event is presented in this article based on the Self-Assertiveness Demands theory. The suc- cess of the USSR in the Stalin era and the failure in the Reform era are essentially determined by the flour- ishing and withering cognitive membrane of the USSR as a cognitive subject, respectively. The importance of a strong cognitive membrane, and the importance of satisfying the Self-Assertiveness Demand of different cognitive subjects, and their implications in current Chinese reform are also presented.
愿景的传播与实现
A Pattern of History Making: Vision, Education and Actualization
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汪恺, , 曹涛
Emergence and Transfer of Wealth (ETW) , 2015, DOI: 10.12677/ETW.2015.53005
Abstract:
本文通过梳理历史上多次金融泡沫的资产价格波动数据,以愿景及其传播与实现的框架定义泡沫的全周期过程,提出自我肯定需求推动泡沫形成的重要作用,对泡沫的机制和意义进行重新认识,形成新的历史观:泡沫作为人类行为历史的一部分,虽然制造危机,但本质上是精英通过愿景及其传播,凝聚普罗大众的意志和物质力量,推进人类对未来和未知领域的探索。
A pattern of history making is proposed by setting forth the concept of self-assertiveness demand. Asset bubbles in the history which are extensively regarded as reflection of the exuberance of human irrationality propel the progress of technology, innovation and various human vision actualization in the following decades finally. The shaping force of vision, education and actualization in history is from human cognition: self-assertiveness demand.
十六世纪明朝社会转型失败原因探讨
An Analysis of the Failure of Social Transformation in Ming Dynasty of Sixteenth Century
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余雪松, ,, 吴怡萍
Emergence and Transfer of Wealth (ETW) , 2012, DOI: 10.12677/ETW.2012.24016
Abstract:
本文从财富涌现和流转的角度分析了16世纪明朝的发展状况,指出明朝未能实现社会转型并崩溃的原因。以现代的眼光看,正确的模式应该是在农业、工商业等优势产业的基础上,通过自主创新来扩大优势,然后开拓海外市场赚取财富,并通过金融手段来透支未来的财富,从而实现社会转型。然而,明朝却错失了机会,最终在其人民的自我肯定需求得不到适当满足的状况下走向灭亡。
The failure of social transformation of the 16th century Ming Dynasty is analyzed from the point of view of the emergence and transfer of wealth. In modern perspective, an appropriate model is to expand Ming’s advantage by independent innovation in its competitive industries like agriculture and handicrafts, to open up overseas markets to drain western wealth, and to overdraw future wealth through financial means in order to achieve social transformation. However, Ming Dynasty missed the opportunity to meet the self-as- sertiveness demands of its own people appropriately and perished in the end.
移动厂商围绕专利的进攻和防御策略分析
The Offensive and Defensive Strategies around Mobile Operating Systems over Patents
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耿嘉伟, , 李莉
Emergence and Transfer of Wealth (ETW) , 2013, DOI: 10.12677/ETW.2013.33007
Abstract:
本文从苹果公司控诉三星电子和谷歌公司收购摩托罗拉移动技术公司两大案例出发,分析了围绕iOS操作系统的厂商的进攻性策略与围绕Android操作系统的厂商的防御性策略,指出利用专利池作为杠杆来争夺市场已经成为现代市场竞争的基本做法。本文也提出了中国新兴手机厂商参与到国际竞争的策略选择。
In this paper, both the offensive strategy of the iOS manufacturers and the defensive one of the Android ones are analyzed, based on two significant cases which are the accusation between Apple and Samsung, and the acquisition between Google and Motorola. It is shown that a “patent pool” served as a lev-erage has become widely used in fighting for the competitive market. The issue of strategy selection for Chi-nese mobile enterprises, especially the newly developing ones, is discussed, too.


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