Publish in OALib Journal
APC: Only $99
Brazil is responsible for 27% of the world production of soybeans and 7% of maize. Mato Grosso and Para states in Brazil are among the largest producer. The viability to the cultivation of maize (Zea mays) and soybeans (Glycine max), for future climate scenarios (2070-2100, GHG) is evaluated based on crop modeling (DSSAT) forced by observational data and regional climate simulations (HadRM3). The results demonstrated that a substantial reduction in the yield in particular for maize may be expected for the end of the 21st century. Distinct results are found for soybeans. By applying the A2 climate changes scenario, soybean yield rises by up top 60% assuming optimum soil treatment and no water stress. However, by analyzing the inter-annual variability of crop yields for both maize and soybean, could be demonstrated larger year-to-year fluctuations under greenhouse warming conditions as compared to current conditions, leading to very low productivity by the end of the 21st century. Therefore, these Brazilian states do not appear to be economically suitable for a future cultivation of maize and soybeans. Improved adaptation measures and soil management may however partially alleviate the negative climate change effect.
Based on regional climate model simulations conducted with RegCM3 and NCEP Reanalyses, the impact of anomalous climate forcing on environmental vulnerability to wildfire occurrence in Africa is analyzed by applying the Potential Fire Index (PFI). Three different model-based vegetation distributions were analyzed for a present day simulation (1980-2000) and for the end of the twenty-first century (2080-2100). It was demonstrated that under current climate and vegetation conditions the PFI is able to reproduce the principal fire risk areas which are concentrated in the Sahelian region from December to March, and in subtropical Africa from July to October. Predicted future changes in vegetation lead to substantial modifications in magnitude of the PFI, particularly for the southern and subtropical region of Africa. The impact of climate changes other than through vegetation, was found to induce more moderate changes in the fire risk, and increase the area vulnerable to fire occurrence in particular in sub-Saharan. The PFI reproduces areas with high fire activity, indicating that this index is a useful tool for forecasting fire occurrence worldwide, because it is based on regionally dependent vegetation and climate factors.
The Northeast Brazil (NEB)
is known for its temporal and spatial variability of precipitation. Several
studies have investigated this variability in order to understand the damaging
episodes such as droughts and floods. The phenomenon of drought in the NEB is a
complex topic due to affecting millions of people and being the
object of study in several fields of knowledge. One way to try to argue about
this phenomenon is through the concept of vulnerability. The “operability” of
this broad concept in natural disasters is a complex task. In order to measure
an indicator of vulnerability it is necessary large amount of data from
different areas of knowledge, among which include: meteorology,
socio-environmental, economic, public health, among other areas. The main
objective of this study is to create an index of vulnerability to climate
extremes (drought and flood) for the NEB and to compare this rate with those
found in the scientific literature. The data that will be used in this study
are from ANA (Agência Nacional das águas), IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de
Georgrafia e Estatística), and Ministry of National integration.