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Smallpox and bioterrorism
Pennington,Hugh;
Bulletin of the World Health Organization , 2003, DOI: 10.1590/S0042-96862003001000014
Abstract: smallpox was declared to be eradicated on 8 may 1980, during the thirty-third world health assembly. however, concerns about the possible use of the virus as a weapon of bioterrorism have increased in recent years. governments have responded by initiating selective vaccination programmes and other public health measures. this review uses historical data from 20th century outbreaks to assess the risks to current populations (which have declining immunity) from a deliberate release of virus. the data presented supports the conclusion of a previous reviewer (mack) that "smallpox cannot be said to live up to its reputation. far from being a quick-footed menace, it has appeared as a plodding nuisance with more bark than bite." its r value (the average number of secondary cases infected by a primary case) is lower than that for measles, human parvovirus, chickenpox, mumps, rubella, and poliomyelitis; only the value for severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) is lower. like sars, close person-to-person contact is required for effective spread of the disease, and exposure to the virus in hospitals has played an important role in transmission for both viruses. in the present paper the dangers of mass vaccination are emphasized, along with the importance of case isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine of close contacts for outbreak control. the need for rapid diagnosis and the continued importance of maintaining a network of electron microscopes for this purpose are also highlighted.
Smallpox and bioterrorism  [cached]
Pennington Hugh
Bulletin of the World Health Organization , 2003,
Abstract: Smallpox was declared to be eradicated on 8 May 1980, during the Thirty-third World Health Assembly. However, concerns about the possible use of the virus as a weapon of bioterrorism have increased in recent years. Governments have responded by initiating selective vaccination programmes and other public health measures. This review uses historical data from 20th century outbreaks to assess the risks to current populations (which have declining immunity) from a deliberate release of virus. The data presented supports the conclusion of a previous reviewer (Mack) that "smallpox cannot be said to live up to its reputation. Far from being a quick-footed menace, it has appeared as a plodding nuisance with more bark than bite." Its R value (the average number of secondary cases infected by a primary case) is lower than that for measles, human parvovirus, chickenpox, mumps, rubella, and poliomyelitis; only the value for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is lower. Like SARS, close person-to-person contact is required for effective spread of the disease, and exposure to the virus in hospitals has played an important role in transmission for both viruses. In the present paper the dangers of mass vaccination are emphasized, along with the importance of case isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine of close contacts for outbreak control. The need for rapid diagnosis and the continued importance of maintaining a network of electron microscopes for this purpose are also highlighted.
Smallpox - past or not past?  [PDF]
Kulji?-Kapulica Nada
Srpski Arhiv za Celokupno Lekarstvo , 2004, DOI: 10.2298/sarh0408272k
Abstract: Smallpox is a potentially deadly illness caused by the variola virus, an orthopoxvirus. Severe illness followed by blister-like body rash is the sign of smallpox. Smallpox symptoms develop about 12 days after exposure. V. variole can spread very readily by aerosol, which may lead to explosive epidemics. For centuries, smallpox has been a worldwide cause of death, killing about 30% of the infected people. In 1972, the epidemic of smallpox in ex-Yugoslavia was the largest postwar smallpox epidemic in Europe. The total number of the affected was 175, out of whom 35 with fatal outcome, accounting for 20% of mortality. However, after a decade-long vaccination effort, the last natural case of smallpox occurred in 1977 The only way to prevent smallpox epidemic is by vaccination and patients' isolation. The possibility of future bioterrorism attacks, which may cause a new outbreak of smallpox and return variola, is very serious. World population is not immune, because of lack of vaccination. In 1980, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the disease fully eradicated.
Logistics of community smallpox control through contact tracing and ring vaccination: a stochastic network model
Travis C Porco, Karen A Holbrook, Susan E Fernyak, Diane L Portnoy, Randy Reiter, Tomás J Aragón
BMC Public Health , 2004, DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-4-34
Abstract: We developed a continuous-time stochastic simulation of smallpox transmission, including network structure, post-exposure vaccination, vaccination of contacts of contacts, limited response capacity, heterogeneity in symptoms and infectiousness, vaccination prior to the discontinuation of routine vaccination, more rapid diagnosis due to public awareness, surveillance of asymptomatic contacts, and isolation of cases.We found that even in cases of very rapidly spreading smallpox, ring vaccination (when coupled with surveillance) is sufficient in most cases to eliminate smallpox quickly, assuming that 95% of household contacts are traced, 80% of workplace or social contacts are traced, and no casual contacts are traced, and that in most cases the ability to trace 1–5 individuals per day per index case is sufficient. If smallpox is assumed to be transmitted very quickly to contacts, it may at times escape containment by ring vaccination, but could be controlled in these circumstances by mass vaccination.Small introductions of smallpox are likely to be easily contained by ring vaccination, provided contact tracing is feasible. Uncertainties in the nature of bioterrorist smallpox (infectiousness, vaccine efficacy) support continued planning for ring vaccination as well as mass vaccination. If initiated, ring vaccination should be conducted without delays in vaccination, should include contacts of contacts (whenever there is sufficient capacity) and should be accompanied by increased public awareness and surveillance.Concerns about intentional releases of smallpox have prompted extensive preparations to improve our ability to detect and respond to an outbreak of smallpox [1,3,4,2]. Many factors contribute to the public health challenge of understanding and preparing for smallpox, including the age and quality of epidemiological data on native smallpox and the smallpox vaccine, the difficulty of extrapolating that data to our current populations, the possible terrorist use o
Representational Pattern of Discursive Hegemony  [PDF]
Ming Liu
Open Journal of Modern Linguistics (OJML) , 2013, DOI: 10.4236/ojml.2013.32018
Abstract: The paper aims to construct a practical representational pattern, which is to uncover the way the discursive hegemony exists in the content of text. The representational pattern will be embarked upon level by level, mainly from the linguistic perspective such as field of discourse, transitivity, and the choice and meaning of words. For the reason of non-discursive elements having determined effects in the formation of discursive hegemony, the paper will also explore hegemony beyond the linguistic perspective by means of the concept \"discourse\" constructed in Fairclough’s Critical Discourse Analysis model. In addition, a particular written text will be chosen to further testify the way of how hegemony is represented in a particular text or discourse.
Objects, Elements, and Affirmation of the Ethical  [PDF]
Matthew Z. Donnelly
Open Journal of Philosophy (OJPP) , 2013, DOI: 10.4236/ojpp.2013.32045
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that the theory of material objects often referred to as mereological nihilism supports a fine-grained and analytically coherent reading of Emmanuel Levinas’s concept of “elements” as articulated by Levinas primarily in Totality and Infinity. This reading, in turn, allows for a second conclusion, namely the affirmation of the ethical as the possible ground of all other philosophy.
Smallpox: clinical highlights and considerations for vaccination.  [cached]
Mahoney M,Symons A,Kimmel S
Journal of Postgraduate Medicine , 2003,
Abstract: Smallpox virus has gained considerable attention as a potential bioterrorism agent. Recommendations for smallpox (vaccinia) vaccination presume a low risk for use of smallpox as a terrorist biological agent and vaccination is currently recommended for selected groups of individuals such as health care workers, public health authorities, and emergency/rescue workers, among others. Information about adverse reactions to the smallpox vaccine is based upon studies completed during the 1950s and 1960s. The prevalence of various diseases has changed over the last four decades and new disease entities have been described during this period. The smallpox vaccination may be contra-indicated in many of these conditions. This has made pre-screening of potential vaccines necessary. It is believed that at present, the risks of vaccine-associated complications far outweigh the potential benefits of vaccination in the general population.
Hegemony and Stability of the International Economy
Gheorghe Gruia
Theoretical and Applied Economics , 2006,
Abstract: This paper evaluates the relationship between hegemony and the stability of the world economy in a time in history when the hegemony of the United States is more and more questioned. The theory of hegemonic stability - firstly launched by Charles Kindleberger and further developed by Robert Gilpin, Stephen Krasner and Robert Keohane, states that for an international system of trade and finance to function smoothly there must be a hegemon. According to Keohane, a hegemon is a state that possesses the following characteristics: the ability to create, enforce and maintain international norms; the will to do it; and the decisive domination in the economic, technological and military fields. During the last two centuries the world experienced the hegemony of two powers: Great Britain and the United States, with their good and bad features. These two hegemonies – when exercised, demonstrated the relationship between hegemony and the stability of the world economy. Now, at the beginning of a new century, the hegemony of the United States seems to be questioned and a future posthegemonic world system is still under theoretical debate. In this situation is it wise for the world politicians to hurry the dethroning of the hegemon? This paper argues for the strengthening of the cooperation - mainly between the United States and the European Union, and for the responsible action of all the states in order to make a smooth and orderly transition to a new world system. The lack of cooperation could lead to disorders, to the revival of the protectionist attitude of the United States, and finally to a worsening of the world economy.
Smallpox and Season: Reanalysis of Historical Data  [PDF]
Hiroshi Nishiura,Tomoko Kashiwagi
Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases , 2009, DOI: 10.1155/2009/591935
Abstract: Seasonal variation in smallpox transmission is one of the most pressing ecological questions and is relevant to bioterrorism preparedness. The present study reanalyzed 7 historical datasets which recorded monthly cases or deaths. In addition to time series analyses of reported data, an estimation and spectral analysis of the effective reproduction number at calendar time , (), were made. Meteorological variables were extracted from a report in India from 1890–1921 and compared with smallpox mortality as well as (). Annual cycles of smallpox transmission were clearly shown not only in monthly reports but also in the estimates of (). Even short-term epidemic data clearly exhibited an annual peak every January. Both mortality and () revealed significant negative association (<.01) and correlation (<.01), respectively, with humidity. These findings suggest that smallpox transmission greatly varies with season and is most likely enhanced by dry weather.
Are there valid instances of the fallacy of affirmation of the consequent?
García Duque,Carlos Emilio;
Discusiones Filosóficas , 2011,
Abstract: according to massey there is no theory whatsoever behind the standard treatment of fallacies. nevertheless, he agrees that the so called formal fallacies can falsify his claim. since formal fallacies are invalid patterns of argumentation proscribed by logical theory, he purports to show that they can, anyhow, yield valid arguments. massey chooses the fallacy of "affirmation of the consequent" and provides one example of it to support such claim. his underlying point is that while proofs of argument validity can be considered definitive and taken to have theoretical legitimacy, proofs of argument invalidity cannot. in this paper i will challenge massey's example of an argument that instantiates the pattern known as "affirmation of the consequent" and yet is valid. i will argue that his example is not a genuine case of affirmation of the consequent, but a mere sham argument on which he has performed a trick.
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