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初婚初育史对育龄妇女二孩生育间隔的影响  [PDF]
巫锡炜 ?
期刊检索-中国人口科学 , 2010,
Abstract: 由于常规生存模型假定删截和事件发生相互独立,导致研究者常常忽略删截案例中可能还包含经历事件的风险为零的"长期存活者"。忽略这一总体异质性会导致有偏的参数估计。文章介绍并应用分割总体生存模型来探究初婚初育史对中国育龄妇女的二孩生育间隔的影响。结果发现,在控制个体特征和所处文化背景特性的情况下,对于有可能生育二孩的妇女,初婚年龄的推迟、初育为女孩的情况都将导致二孩生育间隔的缩短;所属初育队列越晚、初育孩子健康、初育后哺乳时间越长、间隔期内人工流产次数越多则都会显著延长二孩生育间隔。
“单独二孩”与“全面二孩”政策家庭生育意愿比较及启示
Fertility Intention for the Second Child under the Selective and Universal Two-Child Policies: Comparisons and Implications
 [PDF]

张晓青,黄彩虹,张强,陈双双,范其鹏
- , 2016,
Abstract: 摘要 生育意愿是影响实际生育水平的超前变量,为预测生育水平提供重要参数。通过对山东省符合"单独二孩"政策和"全面二孩"政策家庭的大样本生育意愿调查,结果显示,两类政策家庭的二孩生育意愿和理想子女数基本相同,且愿意生育二孩的主观因素、地区差异及户口性质、文化程度、现有1孩性别等对两类家庭生育意愿的影响是类似的;生育安排、不愿意生育的主观因素、属相偏好等则存在显著差异。二元Logistic回归模型模拟结果表明:现有1孩性别、年龄、地区因素、主观因素等对两类家庭二孩生育意愿均具有显著的影响;"全面二孩"政策家庭更主要从一个孩子的风险性方面考虑二孩生育,"单独二孩"政策家庭则更多从自身养老和精神需求的角度做出二孩生育选择。
Abstract:Fertility intention is the preponed variable affecting the actual fertility level,providing important information for predicting fertility level.A survey with a large sample size is conducted to investigate the fertility desires for wanting the second child of the couples under the selective and universal two-child policies in Shandong Province.The results show that the fertility desires and the ideal number of children in the two types of families are basically the same,and factors including subjective considerations,regional disparity,residential properties,education level,and the sex of the first child also have similar effects on the fertility desires of the two types of families.However,salient gaps exist in fertility planning,subjective considerations for not wanting to have the second child,and zodiac preference between the two types of families.Under a binary logistic regression model,sex of the first child,age, region,and subjective considerations show significant impact on fertility desires for wanting the second child in the two types of families.Furthermore,couples under the universal two-child policy primarily consider the risk of losing the only child as the intention for wanting the second one,while couples un- der the selective two-child policy care more about pension and psychological needs which are stated to be the main reasons of wanting the second child.
父母如何影响女性的二孩生育计划
Parental Influence on Women’s Second-birth Plan in Urban China
 [PDF]

靳永爱,中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心讲师,赵梦晗(通讯作者),中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心教师博士后,宋健,中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心教授。北京:
- , 2018,
Abstract: 摘要 文章使用2016年全国6省12市的生育调查数据,分析了中国城市地区父母对20~44岁已婚已育一孩女性的二孩生育计划的影响,并讨论了家庭收入水平如何在代际影响中发挥调节作用。结果显示,父母通过照料支持和表达自身生育偏好影响女性的二孩生育计划,父母提供二孩照料支持、父母的二孩或多孩偏好以及性别偏好会显著提高女性有二孩生育计划的可能性。家庭收入水平不仅对二孩生育计划有显著的正向影响作用(即收入水平越高的家庭,更可能有二孩生育计划),还在父母性别偏好对女性生育计划的影响中发挥了重要的调节作用。父母性别偏好对女性二孩生育计划的影响在收入水平不同的家庭间存在差异,在收入水平越高的家庭,父母的性别偏好产生的影响越大。
Abstract:Using data from the 2016 fertility survey conducted in 12 cities of 6 provinces in mainland China,this study discusses the intergenerational effects on women’s plan for a second child in the era of universal two-child policy.We only focus on the main targeted group of this policy change——married women who are between age 20 and 44 and have only one child in urban China,contributing to the discussions regarding future fertility trend.Overall,the results suggest that parental childcare supports and fertility preferences significantly affect women’s birth plan.Specifically,the probability of having a second child plan is higher if parents can provide childcare assistance,prefer to have two or more grandchildren or have sex preference.Also,family income is positively associated with women’s plan to have a second child and moderates parental effects.The influence of parental sex preference on women’s second child plan is stronger in families with higher income.
全面两孩政策背景下中国城市女性的生育偏好和生育计划
Women’s Fertility Preference and Intention in Urban China: An Empirical Study on the Nationwide Two-Child Policy
 [PDF]

靳永爱,宋健,陈卫
- , 2016,
Abstract: 摘要 文章利用2016年全国6省12市生育调查数据,分析中国城市家庭已婚已育一孩妇女的生育偏好与生育计划及其影响因素,结果发现:有24.4%的人计划生育二孩并且有明确的时间安排,有5.1%的人计划生育二孩但没有时间安排。生育偏好受个体家庭生活和成长环境的影响,跟公婆居住、有兄弟姐妹的女性更可能有二孩偏好,但这些因素并不对生育计划产生影响;现实两大限制因素——经济成本和照料压力影响生育二孩的计划,但并不对生育偏好产生影响;男孩偏好是一种现实促进因素,第一个孩子是女孩的女性更可能有生育第二个孩子的计划;生育计划和生育偏好之间的偏离也主要受到现实因素(年龄、家庭收入、照料可获得性、性别偏好)的影响。
Abstract:Using the 2016 fertility survey data from 12 cities in 6 provinces of urban China,this study empirically investigates family size desire,second childbearing intention and their determinants for married women who have already given birth to one child.We find that 24.4% of women have a timetable plan for the birth of a second child,while 5.1% of women have intention but no timetable.Family backgrounds such as the number of siblings and whether a woman coresides with her parents-in-law have significant impact on the family size desire but are insignificantly associated with the second child- bearing intention.In contrast,financial and care burdens significantly affect women’s second child- bearing intention but are insignificantly associated with the family size desire.Sex preferences exist,meaning that women’s second childbearing intention is higher for those whose first child is a girl.Finally,the gap between women’s family size desire and second childbearing intention is mainly driven by practical factors such as women’s age,family’s financial status,care burdens and son preference.
论全面两孩政策
On the Two-Child Policy in China
 [PDF]

王培安
- , 2016,
Abstract: 摘要 2016年初,中共中央和国务院最新公布了《关于实施全面两孩政策改革完善计划生育服务管理的决定》。文章论述了实施全面两孩政策出台的背景、意义、内涵、决策过程及出台的时机,提出贯彻落实《决定》精神需要做好的几个方面工作,包括依法组织实施全面两孩政策、改革生育服务管理制度、加强妇幼健康计划生育服务、做好政策衔接和计划生育特殊家庭的帮扶、加强组织领导和保障措施、夯实基层基础、加强生育保障。我国的人口国情决定了计划生育基本国策必须长期坚持,今后的人口计生工作应该转向调控总量、提升素质、优化结构、合理分布、注重服务家庭,政府、社会和公民多元共治。
Abstract:At the start of 2016,CPC Central Committee and State Council issued a decision on imple- menting a comprehensive two-child policy,reforming and improving the management of family planning services.This paper reviews theoretical and practical perspectives of the decision and discusses the what and the why of the two-child policy.In carrying out and implementing the decision,the major tasks involve organizing and implementing the two-child policy in accordance with the law,reforming maternity services management system,strengthening maternal and child health and family planning services,improving family planning rewards support system,strengthening organizational leadership,strengthening grass-roots work,and improving childbearing security.Family planning policy is a long- term basic national policy in China; however,China’ s future family planning work needs to be reorient- ed to achieving demographically an appropriate scale,high-quality,structure optimization,and rational distribution,and to forming a multi-governing structure of the government,society and the citizens.
对“单独二孩”政策新的认识与思考
Reflections on the New Two-Child Fertility Policy
 [PDF]

刘爽,王平
- , 2015,
Abstract: 摘要 随着“单独二孩”政策落地,生育政策再次成为社会热点,各种说法频出,有必要更广泛、深入的讨论。文章在对“单独二孩”政策实施后一年来相关研究成果进行梳理和总结的基础上,从妇女终身生育水平和生育地区差异的角度,对“单独二孩”政策进行了新的解读,并从多个侧面展开了政策思考。研究表明:妇女的终身生育水平没有从时期生育水平看到的那么低,中国尚谈不上已陷入“超低生育率陷阱”,地区差异大仍然是中国人口生育的基本特征,政策调整需要统筹兼顾。在“单独二孩”政策刚落地一年就做出政策“遇冷”判断不够审慎,过渡性的“单独二孩”政策发挥着向“全面二孩”政策接续的重要“错峰”作用。政策变化带来的社会影响要远比生育本身更广泛、复杂。
Abstract:In conducting a more extensive and in-depth analysis of the new two-child policy, this article summarizes the results from the existing studies, and provides new interpretations and rethinking of the new family planning policy by looking at China’s fertility level with lifetime and regional perspective. Research shows that women’s lifetime fertility level is not as low as the period fertility level, and China has not fallen into the “low fertility trap”. A fundamental feature of China’s fertility pattern is the large regional differences. Adjustment of fertility policy needs an overall consideration. It is too early to suggest that the new fertility policy has had effects that are far below expectations when the policy has just been implemented for one year. The new fertility policy is transitional, and plays a role of reducing birth accumulation when moving to a universal two-child policy. Policy adjustment and change will bring about a full range of social impacts.
全面两孩政策对我国人口总量结构的影响分析
Impactof the Two-Child Policy on China’s Population
 [PDF]

李桂芝,崔红艳,严伏林,权少伟
- , 2016,
Abstract: 摘要 文章利用2014年全国人口变动情况抽样调查数据,按层次递进的方式,分析当前我国育龄夫妇类型和生育状况,得出单独两孩政策目标人群和全面两孩政策的目标人群及年龄构成,利用分类型分年龄的生育意愿数据,分析单独两孩政策对近几年我国出生人口的影响、全面两孩政策对近几年我国出生人口以及未来我国劳动年龄人口等人口结构的影响。文章认为,单独两孩政策对出生人口的增加影响有限,全面两孩政策实施后出生人口较多的几年,大约相当于上世纪八、九十年代出生人口较少的年份,之后,预计出生人口将会逐步减少并趋于稳定;总人口峰值出现年份略有后推,峰值数量稍有增加;该政策对今后我国人口年龄结构的优化、促进出生人口性别比平衡可以起到积极作用。
Abstract: Based on data from the 2014 annual population change survey,this paper provides estimates of number and structure of the target couples of the selective and universal two-child policy,and conducts prediction of number of births and working age population under the two-child policy.The selective two-child policy has only limited effect on number of births,while the largest annual number of births under the universal two-child policy is roughly similar to the average annual number of births occurred in the 1980s to 1990s.Long-term decline in annual number of births is expected under the universal two-child policy.The universal two-child policy will somewhat postpone the time of China’s peak population which will be slightly larger.The universal two-child policy will have positive effect on optimizing China’s population structure and balancing its sex structure.
“全面二孩”政策下成都市育龄妇女二孩生育意愿及影响因素研究
Research on the second-child bearing willingness of fertile women in Chengdu City and the influencing factors under the universal two-child policy
 [PDF]

李思成,陶寄,何鸾英,何雨莲,陈怡依,张强
- , 2017,
Abstract: 目的 了解全面二孩政策实施后,成都市育龄妇女的二孩生育意愿及影响因素,为相关政策的制定提供参考。方法 以成都市随机抽取的已有且仅有一孩的523名育龄妇女作为研究对象,采用自行设计的调查问卷,以面对面问卷访谈的形式收集资料。结果 523例调查对象中170(32.5%)人打算要二孩,279(53.3%)人不打算要二孩,74(14.1%)人暂不清楚是否要二孩。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,妇女的学历越高(OR = 0.655)、兄弟姐妹数越多(OR = 0.476)、工作压力越小(OR = 0.754)、配偶为外地居民者(OR = 0.531)夫妻关系较不和谐者(OR = 0.592)越愿意生育二孩。而妇女职业为工人(OR = 72.9)和医务人员(OR = 5.44)更不愿意生育二孩。结论 成都市已有一孩的育龄妇女的生育意愿偏低,影响二孩生育意愿的因素较多,相关部门应制定有针对性的措施,以适应新政策带来的问题与挑战。
“全面两孩”后的计划生育奖励扶助政策走向
The Family Planning Reward and Assistance Policies under the Two-Child Policy
 [PDF]

吕红平,崔红威,杨鑫
- , 2016,
Abstract: 摘要 我国计划生育政策由"提倡一孩"向全面"提倡两孩"的调整,必然要求计划生育奖励扶助政策做出相应调整。计划生育奖励扶助政策调整,应当遵循科学衔接、公平公正、国家尽责、社会关注的原则,形成以国家为主导的社会保障机制,弱化乃至消除奖励扶助政策中的城乡差别、地区差别和民族差别,真正体现其国策地位和公平公正原则。计划生育奖励扶助政策的基本走向应当是由奖励"一孩家庭"转变为鼓励按政策生育。需要重点修订的内容,一是"双轨制",以新法实施为标志,实行"老人老办法,新人新办法";二是包到底,重点解决好历史形成的独生子女家庭和计划生育特殊家庭的实际困难;三是增重点,把解决伤病残独生子女家庭的实际困难放在重要位置。
Abstract: In line with the change from the one-child policy to the two-child policy,the family planning reward and assistance policies must be adjusted accordingly.Adjustment of the reward and assistance policies should abide by the principles of scientific connection,fairness,state responsibility and social participation.A country-led social security mechanism needs to be created to eliminate the differences in reward and assistance policies between urban and rural areas,provinces and ethnic groups,reflecting the status of the state policy and the principle of fairness.The fundamental change is to alter rewarding one-child families into encouraging the compliance with the new family planning policy.The contents need to be revised are: first,conducting a " double-track system" to implement simultaneously the old and the new methods; second,taking total responsibility to solve the practical difficulties of one- child families and special families resulting from the one-child policy; third,adding a key point,that is to solve the practical difficulties of one-child families in which the only child is injured,sick or disabled.
全面两孩政策对积极应对人口老龄化的影响(桂世勋)
Impact of the Two-Child Policy on Active Coping with Population Ageing
 [PDF]

桂世勋
- , 2016,
Abstract: 摘要 文章在多方案预测21世纪我国人口变动趋势的基础上,发现2016年起实施全面两孩政策对从宏观上减缓老年抚养比的影响要大于减缓老年人口系数的影响;而且随着时间的推移,在2100年的影响将会进一步显现。实施全面两孩政策虽然会使我国在2030左右提前关闭"人口红利"的机会视窗,但它能减缓21世纪下半叶的总抚养比,从长期看有利于人口均衡发展。实施全面两孩政策从微观上对增强我国家庭养老功能的影响更大,有利于提高"四二二"家庭结构比例,增强2040年后大批独生子女父母进入高龄时的家庭养老功能,规避与生育政策有关的独生子女不幸死亡和伤残给家庭养老带来的风险。
Abstract: Multiple-model projections of China’s population change in the 21st century suggest that the universal two-child policy implemented in 2016 macroscopically would have much larger effect on alleviating China’s old-age dependency ratio than on alleviating the old-age coefficient.Despite that the opportunity window of China’s demographic dividend would close in around 2030,the universal two-child policy could reduce China’s general age dependency ratio in the latter half of the 21st century, which helps to balance the long-term population development.On the other hand,the universal two- child policy would microscopically have great effect on enhancing family care for the elderly in China, and helps to increase the share of the ‘422’type of families,to strengthen family care when many one-child parents become the very old after 2040,and to avoid the risk of death and disability of policy- related only children.
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