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Historical earthquake investigations in Greece  [cached]
V. Kouskouna,K. Makropoulos
Annals of Geophysics , 2004, DOI: 10.4401/ag-3333
Abstract: The active tectonics of the area of Greece and its seismic activity have always been present in the country?s history. Many researchers, tempted to work on Greek historical earthquakes, have realized that this is a task not easily fulfilled. The existing catalogues of strong historical earthquakes are useful tools to perform general SHA studies. However, a variety of supporting datasets, non-uniformly distributed in space and time, need to be further investigated. In the present paper, a review of historical earthquake studies in Greece is attempted. The seismic history of the country is divided into four main periods. In each one of them, characteristic examples, studies and approaches are presented.
The precursory earthquake swarm in Greece  [cached]
F. Evison,D. Rhoades
Annals of Geophysics , 2000, DOI: 10.4401/ag-3678
Abstract: The Hellenic subduction region displays the same precursory swarm phenomenon as has been found in comparable regions of New Zealand and Japan. In the earthquake catalogue of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 10 past sequences of precursory swarms and related major mainshock events have been identified. These correlate, in respect of location, magnitude and time, with the 9 sequences previously identified in New Zealand, and 9 in Japan, bringing the total of sequences to 28, and the totals of related events (allowing for clustering) to 56 precursory swarms and 42 mainshock events. The results add strength to the hypothesis that swarms are long-range predictors of mainshock events. A close similarity between the swarm and aftershock magnitudes in a given sequence is also confirmed in Greece, supporting the proposal that swarms are an integral part of the seismogenic process in subduction regions. Further, the modelling of swarms as part of an overall increase in seismicity, the onset of which marks the onset of seismogenesis, is well illustrated from past sequences in Greece. Formal tests are being carried out in Greece, in parallel with New Zealand and Japan, to ascertain the performance of the hypothesis as a basis for long-range synoptic forecasting.
Double Disaster: Mental Health Of Survivors of Wildfires and Earthquake in a Part of Greece  [PDF]
Vicky Papanikolaou, Dimitrios Adamis, Robert C. Mellon, Gerasimos Prodromitis, John Kyriopoulos
Psychology (PSYCH) , 2011, DOI: 10.4236/psych.2011.22021
Abstract: This paper investigates stress related psychological morbidity in individuals who experienced two disasters 11 months apart (wildfire and earthquake) in a rural area of Greece. A sample of 150 participants has been assessed after the wildfires and after the earthquake using the Symptom Checklist 90-Revised. Survivors had elevated levels of psychopathology in all subscales of the SCL-90–R after the earthquake. Significant risk factors for further development of psychopathology were damages to property and complete loss of property from both disasters. Double disasters can cause considerable psychological symptoms in victims and there are reasons for policy makers to create services in order to help and improve the mental health of those affected but also to help them rebuild their property.
对2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震的预测分析
Prediction and Analysis of the 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 Earthquake
 [PDF]

郭广猛,姜永涛,杨杰,张子月,张淼
- , 2018, DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0844.2018.04.765
Abstract: 2017年8月8日四川九寨沟发生MS7.0地震。震前我们实验室主要做出以下预测:(1)根据我国强震的空间分布有序性规律,在2015年曾做出预测:甘肃省东南部、四川交界处将来可能会发生8级地震;(2)根据44年周期和7年周期,2016年预测四川区域在2017年会有7.5级地震发生;(3)依据地磁仪器观测到的数据异常,2017年7月28日认为近期将有6~7级地震发生。九寨沟地震发生后,经综合分析我们的三次预测,以及6—7月在四川茂县出现的多次滑坡事件,认为若将这些因素结合起来,将会是一个很好的短临预测方式。
An MS7.0 earthquake occurred in Jiuzhaigou County, Sichuan Province, on August 8, 2017, before which we had made some predictions.According to the recurrence periods of 44 years and 7 years, we predicted in 2016 that an M7.5 earthquake will happen in Sichuan Province in 2017.On July 28, 2017, based on the geomagnetic anomalies observed by instruments, we predicted that an M6~7 earthquake was imminent.A retrospective analysis after the Jiuzhaigou earthquake shows that combining our prediction with the landslides that occurred in Maoxian County, Sichuan Province before the earthquake can result in a good impending earthquake prediction.Moreover, combining the date of the 1973 Luhuo earthquake with the recurrence period of 44 years and 180 days can lead to an accurate estimation of the date of Jiuzhaigou earthquake shock.
Monitoring of the geomagnetic and geoelectric field in two regions of Greece for the detection of earthquake precursors
G. Vargemezis,J. Zlotnicki,G. Tsokas,B. C. Papazachos
Annals of Geophysics , 1997, DOI: 10.4401/ag-3916
Abstract: Two magnetotelluric stations have been installed in the South-Eastern Thessaly basin (Central Greece), which have recorded the geomagnetic and geoelectric fields since 1993. The aim is to detect long lasting abnormal changes of the geoelectric field which may be due to impending earthquakes. The geoelectric recordings were checked against the climatic changes such as temperature changes and precipitation and no correlation was observed. Ten anomalies were observed with characteristics similar to seismoelectric signals which have been reported in the literature and thus we can assume that these changes constitute precursory phenomena. The duration of these signals varies from several days to a few weeks. Some of them keep on developing until the occurrence of an earthquake, and others appear like transient changes several days before. The high seismicity of the area where the stations are located creates difficulties in the correlation of the signals with certain shocks.
An updated and extended earthquake catalogue for Greece and adjacent areas since 1900
K. Makropoulos, G. Kaviris,V. Kouskouna
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) & Discussions (NHESSD) , 2012,
Abstract: A homogeneous earthquake catalogue for Greece and adjacent areas covering the period 1900–2009 is presented, to be used for reliable seismic hazard studies. The catalogues of Makropoulos and Burton (1981) and Makropoulos et al. (1989), covering the time span 1900–1985, were updated for the period 1986–2009 using instrumentally determined focal coordinates, except for the magnitude from the bulletin of the ISC. For Ms, which is the magnitude scale included in the previous versions, the same procedure applied since 1964 was adopted, using the ISC body wave magnitude (mb) and a regression equation. In the present update, Mw is also calculated for the entire period 1900–2009 using a formula derived from all available moment magnitudes and directly determined by the moment tensor inversion method. Thus, a magnitude homogeneous catalogue concerning both Ms and Mw scales is presented. The extended catalogue contains 7352 events, 70% more than the 4310 events of the previous published (1989) version. The completeness test revealed that the catalogue is complete for magnitudes above 4 for the last 34 yr and that no earthquake with magnitude 6 or greater has been omitted in the whole instrumental era (1900–2009).
POST-EARTHQUAKE RECONSTRUCTION: TOWARDS A MUCH MORE PARTICIPATORY PLANNING
Sheng YING
Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management , 2009,
Abstract: After the devastating Great Wenchuan Earthquake occured in May 2008, China responded rapidly to mitigate the losses caused. Post-earthquake reconstruction planning plays a crucial role to the future development of earthquake struck areas. The post-earthquake reconstruction planning work has demonstrated to be an immediate action and tends to be a much more open and participatory. Since the influence of long term planned economy in the past and its centralised administration system, planning in China is comparatively information-close to ordinary people. However, the post-earthquake reconstruction planning turns to be a much wider participatory and more open than before, though it is still immature and there still many obstacles need to be overcome. This paper firstly introduces the Great Wenchuan Earthquake and the quick response of reconstruction planning in China. It depicts the intensive work of the reconstruction planning. Then it reviews the concept of participatory planning and the history of participatory planning in China. Thirdly, it identifies three new trends that a more participatory planning has showed in the reconstruction planning. Lastly, this paper points out some problems still exist in the reconstruction planning.
Seismicity anomalies prior to 8 June 2008, Mw=6.4 earthquake in Western Greece
G. Chouliaras
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) & Discussions (NHESSD) , 2009,
Abstract: The epicentral area of the Mw=6.4, 8 June 2008 main shock in northwestern Peloponesus, Western Greece, had been forecasted as a candidate for the occurrence of a strong earthquake by independent scientific investigations. This study concerns the seismicity of a large area surrounding the epicenter of the main shock using the seismological data from the monthly bulletins of the Institute of Geodynamics of the National Observatory of Athens. This data set is the most detailed earthquake catalog available for anomalous seismicity pattern investigations in Greece. The results indicate a decrease in seismicity rate seven years prior to the 8 June main shock which constituted a two and a half year long seismic quiescence surrounding the epicentral area. This quiescence anomaly was succeeded by a period of acceleration in seismic activity for five years approximately, until the occurrence of the main shock.
Seismic hazard assessment in Polyphyto Dam area (NW Greece) and its relation with the "unexpected" earthquake of 13 May 1995 (Ms = 6.5, NW Greece)  [PDF]
K. Pavlou,G. Kaviris,K. Chousianitis,G. Drakatos
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) & Discussions (NHESSD) , 2013, DOI: 10.5194/nhess-13-141-2013
Abstract: Seismic hazard assessment and seismicity changes are investigated in the Kozani–Grevena area, at the western margin of internal Hellenides in NW Greece. The region is of great interest, since it was characterized by very low seismic activity until 1995, when the "unexpected" Kozani–Grevena earthquake (Ms = 6.5) occurred. This event is of significant importance for Greece, since it, along with the 1999 Athens earthquake, initiated the modification of the Greek Building Code. In order to detect any seismicity changes, the seismicity of the region was divided into three time windows: the first up to 1973, the second from 1900 to 1994 and the third covering the entire instrumental period. For the above mentioned time windows, seismic hazard assessment was performed using the extreme values method. The results indicate an increase of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) values after the impoundment, with the exception of the area in the vicinity of the NE edge of the Dam. Before the occurrence of the 1995 event, the epicentral region also exhibited higher PGA values than before the impoundment. The most significant increase in PGA values is observed SE of the Polyphyto artificial lake, where the largest values are observed for the second and the third period. The coincident increase in the number of earthquakes and in the PGA values may be attributed to the impoundment of the Polyphyto Dam. The maximum expected magnitude is calculated by the extreme values method and Gumbel's third asymptotic distribution. The results reveal similar values of maximum expected magnitudes (Mmax = 6.5), independent of the seismicity rate, indicating that the 13 May 1995 earthquake was not an "unexpected" event, since the magnitude of an oncoming earthquake depends mainly on the tectonics of the region and the characteristics of the active faults.
由三性法讨论2017年8月8日四川九寨沟7级地震的中期预测
Discussion on the Medium-term Prediction of Jiuzhaigou, Sichuan MS 7.0 Earthquake on August 8, 2017, by Means of Triplet Method
 [PDF]

郭增建,郭安宁
- , 2017, DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0844.2017.04.0797
Abstract: 九寨沟和其周围地区20世纪共发生3次强震,它们在时间轴上符合以42年为周期的三性分布。从1976年松潘地震起算跨越此周期可预测2018年再次发生强震。该地区实际地震前一周期比42年多一年,则从1976年松潘地震起算向新的周期减一年,可预测2017年再次发生强震。
Three strong earthquakes, which occurred in the Jiuzhaigou county and its adjacent areas in the 20th century, fit to the temporal triplet distribution with period of 40 years. It is predicted that a strong earthquake will occur again in 2018 based on the period with the 1976 Songpan earthquake as the starting point. In fact, the previous period of actual earthquakes in this area is 43 years, one more than 42 years, so the new period should subtract one year, which means the predicted strong earthquake should occur in 2017.
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