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Fiscal Sustainability of Japanese Prefectural Government Debt  [PDF]
Rena Akamatsu, Kazuki Hiraga
Open Journal of Social Sciences (JSS) , 2015, DOI: 10.4236/jss.2015.38009
Abstract: This paper investigates whether the Japanese local government debt is sustainable. We apply the fiscal stabilization rule that each local government improves their primary balance in the current year when they issue additional debt the previous year. We check it using panel data of the Japanese prefectural governments. We find that Japanese prefectural governments were not sustainable across 1956-2007, though were sustainable across 1956-1989.
Public debt sustainability. Notes on debt sustainability, development of a domestic governmet securities market and financial risks  [cached]
Luis Foncerrada
Análisis Económico , 2005,
Abstract: The paper focuses on debt management, and examines the concept of debt sustainability as defined by different authors and applied by the IMF. However, proposes a new definition and a different approach. Assessment procedures for the new approach are suggested as also some actions to develop a government securities market. In the last part, it proposes an interpretation of Mexico s 1982 and 1994-95 crises, as a result of two factors, the overlooking of basic financial risks and a poor conception of debt sustainability.
SUBSTANTIATION OF THE PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY USING KALMAN FILTER  [PDF]
Bolos Marcel,Otgon Cristian,Pop Razvan
Annals of the University of Oradea : Economic Science , 2011,
Abstract: Global economic conditions have pushed many countries into the delicate situation of contracting foreign loans, leading overnight at alarming volumes of public debt. The need for control and relevant analysis for the sustainability of a country's public debt has led us to use the Kalman filter in predicting future values of the key indicators of public debt. The development of a mathematical model of analysis for public services and the budget deficit was necessary to objectively assess the level of the public debt sustainability.Knowing future values of the public debt or the future evolutions of the revenues for the operational budget, offers the posibility of a better handling of the operational expenditures and finally a better balance for the public budget deficit.Using the mathematical mechanism of Kalman filters implemented in Matlab programming language, we generated the estimated future values of the proposed model proposed and key indicators, the results confirming the fears of a low public debt sustainability for Romania.We predicted the future values for the debt service, the public external debt and the operational public revenues,expenditures and deficit, and compared them, to obtain an image of the future evolution and position of the sustainability of the public debt. The work in this paper is an innovative one for the public science sector, and the results obtained are promising for future researches. The values estimated by the Kalman filter are an orientation for the future public policies, and indicate a rather stable but negative evolution for the public debt service. The sustainability of the public debt depends on the decisions taken for the correction of the estimated values, in changing the negative evolution of the budgetary indicators into a positive one.Taking all this into consideration we will conclude that the mathematical mecanism of the Kalman filters offers valuable informations for Government and future research should be oriented to develop it's returned results.
Shadow economy and public debt sustainability in Turkey  [PDF]
Bur?in Yereli Ahmet,Se?ilmi? Erdem ?brahim,Ba?aran Alparslan
Economic Annals , 2007, DOI: 10.2298/eka0773085b
Abstract: The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between the shadow economy and public debt in Turkey. We elaborate on the questions regarding the negative effects of shadow economy on the sustainability of public debt observing the estimates about the size of shadow economy in Turkey. In the light of some scholars’ estimates, we re-evaluate the macroeconomic situation of Turkey. At the core of the study, we discuss how the government borrowing policies would differ if the shadow economy was included into the legal system. In order to examine the effects of shadow economy on sustainability, we use various sustainability indicators. There is a significant difference observed between the calculations which take into account the volume of shadow economy as a share of economic system and those that exclude shadow economy as an exogenous variable. .
An Empirical Analysis of the Sustainability of Public Debt in Ghana  [PDF]
Gideon Amankwah, Grace Ofori-Abebrese, Kofi Kamasa
Theoretical Economics Letters (TEL) , 2018, DOI: 10.4236/tel.2018.811133
Abstract: Governments have the zeal to meet the developmental needs of their countries but due to their inability to raise the necessary revenue to commensurate their expenditure, the fiscal balance of their countries has deteriorated. The surge in the public debt of Ghana has caused much anxiety on the sustainability of such fiscal measures. The study is set out to investigate if Ghana’s debt is sustainable in the long-run and also ascertain if the solvency condition holds for the country. Secondary data spanning from 1990 to 2016 was used. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method was adopted to estimate the relationship between the variables. The study found that fiscal policy makers react to rising debt levels by adjusting primary balance by 0.087% when debt rises by 1%. Since this satisfies the intertemporal government budget constraint (IGBC) condition it was then concluded that the debt level of Ghana is sustainable. Government expenditure and its revenue cointegrate at 5% significance level and a unit increase in government revenue pushes government expenditure by 0.73%. Also the expenditures reaction to increase in revenues satisfies the Wald test restriction a1 = 1, implying that the solvency condition holds for Ghana. It is recommended to fiscal authorities to check primary fiscal balance through the business cycle in order to foster stable and higher economic growth while ensuring debt is also sustainable.
Sustainability, Management and Policy of Public Debt  [cached]
Mirela Anca POSTOLE,Ioana DUCA,Rodica GHERGHINA,Florin VADUVA
Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology , 2011,
Abstract: The present scientific work aims at establishing the connection between the sustainability and the management of public debt both as hot stringent issues, and as strategic components of the state public policies. The authors analyze the relationship between public debt and some macroeconomic variables, by using a model structured on two time periods. Also, the study the same relationship based on data concerning public debt as a quota of the GDP (%) and the economic growth as a quota of the GDP (%) in 2009, by applying the econometric models for several European Union members.Therefore, the results of the present research highlight the role played by the debt management in ensuring the debt sustainability and also prove that the connection between the economic growth and the public debt is indirect and only medium strong, due to the results obtained after applying a unifactorial econometric model.
Debt Sustainability Assessment: Mission Impossible
Charles Wyplosz
Review of Economics and Institutions , 2011, DOI: 10.5202/rei.v2i3.42
Abstract: Debt sustainability is a vexing issue. Its importance is immediately obvious but it escapes any easy definition. This situation is not unheard of in economics; price stability and full employment are examples of other crucially important policy objectives that cannot be simply defined. Yet, while price stability or full employment can both be measured with a reasonable degree of precision, debt sustainability cannot even be measured directly.
Sustainability of the public debt and the financial crisis  [PDF]
Aura Gabriela SOCOL
Theoretical and Applied Economics , 2013,
Abstract: The European Union sovereign-debt crisis brings up again the problem of current account sustainability, the fiscal policy sustainability and the public debt sustainability, as well as the interconditionality between them. On the background of the severe structural problems, the lack of competitiveness has constituted the main factor resulting in the severe deterioration of the European public finances. The external deficits have put additional pressure upon the fiscal deficits. Practically, they entered a vicious circle, to a great extent due to the extremely different economic evolutions of the weak economies opposite to the strongly structurally advanced and solid economies. This study makes a risk analysis of the public debt sustainability in Romania for the period 2010-2015, under the circumstances in which it will enter the Euro zone in the near future.
How to Assess Public Debt Sustainability: Empirical Evidence for the Advanced European Countries  [PDF]
Anca Ruxandra CURTA?U
Romanian Journal of Fiscal Policy , 2011,
Abstract: In the context of a society with limited resources, borrowing seems to be a desirable method that allows governments to finance the required expenditures. But government borrowing is accepted as long as it is consistent with a sound fiscal policy. Since 1923, when the concept of sound finance was brought into discussion for the first time, by J. M. Keynes, many economists have tried to investigate the issue of public debt sustainability. The hereby paper is designed to be an introductory guide in the theory and practice of fiscal sustainability. In this sense, I tried to make a compelling analysis of the evolution of the public debt among the advanced European economies. I have chosen these countries considering that European Union fiscal sustainability is still a much debated and controversial topic and that unsound fiscal policies of individual members could have adverse effects and harm other members’ economies. For the purpose of this study I used annual data, spanned mostly on 1970-2012. The variables for each country have been analyzed through various methods of investigation: unit-root tests, cointegration tests and fiscal reaction function tests. The aim of this paper is therefore to investigate the evolution of the public debt and to establish how governments react to this evolution.
Government guarantees and public debt in Croatia  [PDF]
Anto Bajo,Marko Primorac
Financial Theory and Practice , 2011,
Abstract: Government fi nancial and performance guarantees have been issued in Croatia since 1996, to support funding and ensure favourable borrowing conditions in the fi nancial market for companies in majority state ownership. However, government guarantees have rarely been part of defi ned strategies and goals of public debt and risk management. Despite their steady growth, the structure of active guarantees and their infl uence on Croatian public debt are still unknown. This paper analyses the amount and structure of state guarantees, their maturities and the authority and accountability for their management, and it compares the structure of guarantees in terms of economic sectors. The main objective of the paper is to determine the infl uence of government guarantees on the public debt growth.
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