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Optimal Monetary Policy during Boom-Bust Cycles: The Impact of Globalization
Rolf Knütter,Helmut Wagner
International Journal of Economics and Finance , 2011, DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v3n2p34
Abstract: During boom-bust cycles in asset prices, monetary policy has the choice between two strategies: the proactive strategy of curbing asset price inflation and preventing a bust-induced credit crunch and the reactive strategy of loosening monetary policy conditions during the boom phase. We show that globalization makes the reactive strategy the favorable option in all situations, relatively to the proactive strategy. However, when employing an absolute comparison of calculating both strategies’ losses, the proactive strategy is the optimal choice in exceptional circumstances.
Boom or Bust: Opportunities and Challenges of Aging in Rural Kansas  [cached]
Ben Bolender
Online Journal of Rural Research & Policy , 2010, DOI: 10.4148/ojrrp.v5i1.180
Abstract: Population aging is gaining a great deal of attention as we move toward the retirement of the Baby Boom generation. However, few studies have examined the processes and consequences of these aging trends in rural Kansas-and by extension, the Great Plains-at the community level. To that end, this project examines the community level impacts of population aging in rural Kansas. Primary methods included statistical community profile comparisons, site visits, and key informant interviews with local area leaders. The research team examined three non-metropolitan Kansas counties, two that were aging in place and one that is the single officially defined retirement migration destination in Kansas. Results indicate that areas that are aging in place also face significant challenges sustaining their population and economic structure. The retirement destination, on the other hand, has managed to slow population loss and economic decline through a certain combination of economic structure, family relations, local culture, and appropriate services.
The Transition from Brownian Motion to Boom-and-Bust Dynamics in Financial and Economic Systems  [PDF]
Harbir Lamba
Quantitative Finance , 2012,
Abstract: Quasi-equilibrium models for aggregate variables are widely-used throughout finance and economics. The validity of such models depends crucially upon assuming that the systems' participants behave both independently and in a Markovian fashion. We present a simplified market model to demonstrate that herding effects between agents can cause a transition to boom-and-bust dynamics at realistic parameter values. The model can also be viewed as a novel stochastic particle system with switching and reinjection.
Time-warped growth processes, with applications to the modeling of boom-bust cycles in house prices  [PDF]
Jie Peng,Debashis Paul,Hans-Georg Müller
Statistics , 2014, DOI: 10.1214/14-AOAS740
Abstract: House price increases have been steady over much of the last 40 years, but there have been occasional declines, most notably in the recent housing bust that started around 2007, on the heels of the preceding housing bubble. We introduce a novel growth model that is motivated by time-warping models in functional data analysis and includes a nonmonotone time-warping component that allows the inclusion and description of boom-bust cycles and facilitates insights into the dynamics of asset bubbles. The underlying idea is to model longitudinal growth trajectories for house prices and other phenomena, where temporal setbacks and deflation may be encountered, by decomposing such trajectories into two components. A first component corresponds to underlying steady growth driven by inflation that anchors the observed trajectories on a simple first order linear differential equation, while a second boom-bust component is implemented as time warping. Time warping is a commonly encountered phenomenon and reflects random variation along the time axis. Our approach to time warping is more general than previous approaches by admitting the inclusion of nonmonotone warping functions. The anchoring of the trajectories on an underlying linear dynamic system also makes the time-warping component identifiable and enables straightforward estimation procedures for all model components. The application to the dynamics of housing prices as observed for 19 metropolitan areas in the U.S. from December 1998 to July 2013 reveals that the time setbacks corresponding to nonmonotone time warping vary substantially across markets and we find indications that they are related to market-specific growth rates.
Boom and bust in popular science  [PDF]
Jon Turney
JCOM : Journal of Science Communication , 2007,
Abstract: The obvious thing to say about popular science publishing in the last twenty years is that there has been a lot of it! That is important in itself. But it also means it is hazardous to offer general comment. The British journalist and commentator Bryan Appleyard recently wrote in the Sunday Times that the “hard stuff” in science was no longer attracting so many readers. Books answering many small questions about the world, or evoking a sense of wonder, do better - he reckons - than those which offer large certainties based on a scientific, or scientistic view of the world. That type, Appleyard claims, dominated the field for years after Steven Hawking’s A Brief History of Time, with its promise of a theory of everything.
Genomic and stem cell policy issues: more alike than different?
Mary A Majumder
Genome Medicine , 2011, DOI: 10.1186/gm251
Abstract: Significant sums of public money have been and are being invested in genomic and stem cell research. Perhaps most attention-grabbing in the USA have been the Human Genome Project and the California Stem Cell Research and Cures Initiative (10 years of funding, approved by ballot in 2004), each with a price tag of approximately $3 billion. Given a perception that members of the public are motivated less by a thirst for fundamental knowledge than a desire for cures for diseases, enthusiasts have not always been modest in their assessments of the scope or speed of progress to be expected on the clinical front [3]. Yet this communication strategy, successful in building public support in the short term, has the potential to backfire down the road. For example, in California, what will happen in 2014, or 2017 (granting an additional 3 years for time lost to legal battles), if patients with paralysis have yet to walk and patients with diabetes are still going blind? Tempering enthusiasm with caution could help to avoid boom-and-bust cycles in which public generosity gives way to disappointment and loss of funding. Still, there is a difference between resisting pressure to exaggerate the ease of finding cures and dampening down all excitement about the clinical potential of dramatic advances in basic science. The task is to find a way of harnessing public hopes and support for investment in scientific research to achieve realistic longer-term goals for improvement in clinical care and outcomes.How much time and effort have policy bodies and institutional review boards invested in specifying conditions for informed consent for research uses of human biological material and personal information? I have not seen a calculation, but it seems likely that the investment has been substantial. So it is interesting and perhaps also disheartening that consensus on consent has proven elusive. A recent review article focusing on genetics and genomics presents five competing options for
Boom and bust in continuous time evolving economic model  [PDF]
Lawrence Mitchell,G. J. Ackland
Quantitative Finance , 2008, DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2009-00243-y
Abstract: We show that a simple model of a spatially resolved evolving economic system, which has a steady state under simultaneous updating, shows stable oscillations in price when updated asynchronously. The oscillations arise from a gradual decline of the mean price due to competition among sellers competing for the same resource. This lowers profitability and hence population but is followed by a sharp rise as speculative sellers invade the large un-inhabited areas. This cycle then begins again.
Boom-to-bust. The scallop (Argopecten purpuratus) fishery in the Pisco-Paracas region, southern Peruvian coast Auge y crisis: la pesquería de la concha de abanico (Argopecten purpuratus) en la región Pisco-Paracas, costa sur del Perú  [cached]
Ricardo M. González Hunt
Espacio y Desarrollo , 2010,
Abstract: This paper examines scallop (Argopecten purpuratus) booms experienced in the Pisco-Paracas Region of southern Peru, triggered by the 1982-1983 and the 1997-1998 mega-El Ni o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The quiet fishing ports have been transformed by these booms, which have attracted outside stakeholders transforming the local society. Government institutions in their role as resource managers and environmental stewards have attempted to control access to a region that until recently contained the only marine protected area of Peru. This situation has led to rapid growth in the scallop industry, the overexploitation and depletion of the shellfish, creating a sustainability crisis. Furthermore, this paper examines contradictions and relationships across local, regional, national, and international scales. Este trabajo examina los ciclos de expansión (boom) de la explotación de la concha de abanico (Argopecten purpuratus) observados en la región Pisco-Paracas del sur del Perú, resultantes de los fenómenos El Ni o de 1982-1983 y 1997-1998. Los apacibles puertos de pesca han sido transformados por estos booms productivos que han atraído actores externos y han generado un impacto en la sociedad local. Las instituciones gubernamentales, en su papel de administradores de recursos y protectores del medio ambiente, han tratado de controlar el acceso a una región que hasta hace poco contenía la única área marina protegida del Perú. Esta situación ha producido un rápido crecimiento de la industria de la concha de abanico, su sobreexplotación y el agotamiento de dicho recurso, y ha producido una crisis de sostenibilidad. Asimismo, este trabajo examina las contradicciones y las relaciones entre las escalas local, regional, nacional e internacional.
Boom and Bust Inflation: a Graceful Exit via Compact Extra Dimensions  [PDF]
Adam R. Brown
Physics , 2008, DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.101.221302
Abstract: A model of inflation is proposed in which compact extra dimensions allow a graceful exit without recourse to flat potentials or super-Planckian field values. Though bubbles of true vacuum are too sparse to uniformly reheat the Universe by colliding with each other, a compact dimension enables a single bubble to uniformly reheat by colliding with itself. This mechanism, which generates an approximately scale invariant perturbation spectrum, requires that inflation be driven by a bulk field, that vacuum decay be slow, and that the extra dimension be at least a hundred times larger than the false vacuum Hubble length.
From boom to bust and back again: the complex dynamics of trends and fashions  [PDF]
Luis M. A. Bettencourt
Physics , 2002,
Abstract: Social trends or fashions are spontaneous collective decisions made by large portions of a community, often without an apparent good reason. The spontaneous formation of trends provides a well documented mechanism for the spread of information across a population, the creation of culture and the self-regulation of social behavior. Here I introduce an agent based dynamical model that captures the essence of trend formation and collapse. The resulting population dynamics alternates states of great diversity (large configurational entropy) with the dominance by a few trends. This behavior displays a kind of self-organized criticality, measurable through cumulants analogous to those used to study percolation. I also analyze the robustness of trend dynamics subject to external influences, such as population growth or contraction and in the presence of explicit information biases. The resulting population response gives insights about the fragility of public opinion in specific circumstances and suggests how it may be driven to produce social consensus or dissonance.
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