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The Influence of RMB Real Exchange Rate on the Technical Structure of Sino-US Export Trade Products  [PDF]
Yuliang Lu
American Journal of Industrial and Business Management (AJIBM) , 2018, DOI: 10.4236/ajibm.2018.85086
Abstract: Based on the classification of HS (Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System), and according to the method of Lall (2000) [1], Sino-US trade products are divided into five categories, namely primary products, resource-intensive products, low technology products, medium technical products and high-tech products. Based on the data from the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2017, the influence of bilateral real exchange rate on the structure of Sino-US export trade was studied by using VAR model in this paper. The empirical results show that there is a strong granger causality between Sino-US bilateral real exchange rate and Sino-US export trade product structure, the former being the latter’s granger reason; in the short term, the appreciation (devaluation) of the real exchange rate between China and the US is conducive (inconducive) to an improvement in the trade structure, which has long been detrimental (beneficial) to the improvement of the trade structure. In general, the appreciation of RMB is unfavorable to the improvement of the technical structure of Sino-US export trade. Variance decomposition shows that Sino-US bilateral real exchange rate has a great contribution to the technical structure of Sino-US export trade.
Real Effect of Exchange Rate in RMB and Trade Surplus in China
Canadian Social Science , 2007,
Abstract: The relationship between real effective exchange rate (REER) of RMB from 1997 to 2006 and trade surplus between China and other trade partners was discussed using cointegration vector autoregression in the paper. The study shows that there exists a long-standing and stable relationship between REER of RMB and trade balance; the fall of the real effective exchange rate of RMB is one of the reasons of the increasing trade surplus, however, the influences it brings are less than domestic GDP and trade partner’s GDP do. So, increasing the flexibility of the exchange rate of RMB, broadening the exchange rate’s float space between RMB and dollar are a necessary part of the package policies in solving the trade surplus. Key words: RMB appreciation, real effective exchange rate, trade surplus, cointegration vector autoregression Résumé: La relation entre le taux de change réel (TCR) de RMB de 1997 à 2006 et le surplus commercial de la Chine avec les autres partenaires commerciaux est discutée, en utilisant l’autoregression de vecteur de cointegration, dans l’article présent. L’étude montre qu’il existe un lien stable de longue date entre TCR de RMB et la balance commerciale, et que la baisse de TCR de RMB est une des raisons du surplus commercial croissant. Néanmoins, ses influences sont moins importantes que celles de PIB de notre pays et des partenaires. Ainsi, renforcer la flexibilité du taux de change de RMB, élargir l’espace de flottement du taux de change entre RMB et le dollar sont nécessaire pour résoudre le problème de surplus commercial. Mots-Clés: appréciation de RMB, taux de change réel, surplus commercial, autoregression de vecteur de cointegration
Studies on the Change Mechanism of RMB Exchange Rate with Non-Recurrent Events
Rulu Huang
International Journal of Financial Research , 2012, DOI: 10.5430/ijfr.v3n1p49
Abstract: The objectives of this paper are to explore the relationship between the macroeconomic indicators and exchange rate interval, as well as to probe how the government intervention or hot money inflow causes the exchange rate to jump. According to the literature, the RMB exchange rate is affected by the active management of government and the external environment. Therefore, this paper introduces a mathematical model combined with tendency approach and real options with jumping fluctuation to obtain the appropriate RMB exchange rate interval. Firstly, this paper selected the major macroeconomic variables influencing RMB exchange rate by Pearson correlation analysis and tendency approach to observe the relationship between the macroeconomic variables and exchange rate in normal economic condition. In addition, through real options approach we can understand how the central bank intervenes the exchange rate refer to the potential value of decision-making which makes the exchange rate change jumpily. In the process of empirical test, I choose the RMB exchange rate against U.S. dollar as the dependent variable for the reason of the complex interaction between these two economies. Regardless of data insufficiency, the research results in this model in some way demonstrate a proper RMB exchange rate interval which can act as a reference for government authorities making decisions about implementation of economic policies and other thinking of the relationship between economic policies and exchange rate in the future.
Analysis of the Causes and the Consequences of Consecutive RMB Appreciation  [PDF]
Shuixiang Luo, Yue Zhang, Meilin Hu, Yuhong Li
Journal of Financial Risk Management (JFRM) , 2014, DOI: 10.4236/jfrm.2014.31001

Since the reform and opening-up, China’s foreign trade has obtained at breakneck speed, and in the international competition accumulated the massive trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves. That makes some western countries claim that the value of RMB was severely underestimated, which brought about unprecedented and consecutive appreciation pressure of RMB. The appreciation of RMB is highly related to the balance of the internal and external economics. This paper analyzes the background and the impact on Chinese economy of RMB appreciation, and then puts forward some recommendations or strategies accordingly.

The Threshold Effects of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Imports and Exports  [PDF]
Chuanglian Chen
Journal of Financial Risk Management (JFRM) , 2012, DOI: 10.4236/jfrm.2012.12003
Abstract: Using threshold panel model, we estimate the effectiveness of exchange rate to imports and exports. We conclude that there is a second threshold in both import and export regression models, and China’s trade flows don’t accord with ML condition, when RMB exchange rate appreciation is less than 7.8%. Whereas, when higher than 7.8%, the ML condition strongly holds, indicating that the RMB exchange rate appreciation would deteriorate the China’s international revenue. As RMB exchange rate to US dollar has experiences an appreciation of 22.2% from 2005Q3 to 2012Q1, thus China’s current account would be deteriorated. Therefore, some changes or policies should be made to deal with these problems.
Does the Depreciation of RMB Exchange Rate Inhibit the Innovation of Export Enterprises?  [PDF]
Guohui Yang
Modern Economy (ME) , 2018, DOI: 10.4236/me.2018.92022
Abstract: Based on the sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2011-2016, this paper examines the impact of RMB exchange rate depreciation on enterprise innovation from the perspective of investment motivation. The study found that the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate significantly inhibited the innovation of export enterprises. In the sample of export enterprises, this paper uses OLS regression to find that RMB devaluation significantly inhibits the innovation of export enterprises. Further study on the exporting enterprises group found that this conclusion is only significant in the sub-sample of private enterprises, small scale enterprises and enterprises with high industry competition degree. Because these enterprises have a stronger motivation to pursue profits, in case that the depreciation of RMB exchange rate is conducive to exports, they are more likely to increase their investment in production in order to expand their exports, ignoring innovation investment. This shows that the export enterprises are in the face of the short-term profit-making opportunities arising from the devaluation of the RMB, and the weakening of motivation for investment innovation is the mechanism of devaluation of the RMB to curb enterprise innovation. Finally, in the robustness test, this paper considers the lagging effect of RMB depreciation, and replaces the innovation index of enterprises, and the results are still consistent with the main regression results.
An Analysis on the Determinants of RMB Exchange Rate

Wei Weixian,

系统工程理论与实践 , 1999,
Abstract: In this paper, the mechanism of RMB exchange rate determination is studied by using the method of system analysis in the background of China's economics and the characteristics of managed floating rate system. The models of RMB exchange rate determination are skillfully constructed. According to these models, it is concluded that the change in RMB vs. dollar exchange rate will depend on the change in the main currency vs. dollar exchange rates, the relative prices of traded goods, the foreign debt to total income ratios, the money supply as well as on these differential in real interest rates. Empirical results reported in this study suggest that these models can explain the variations of the RMB vs. US. dollar exchange rate at present.
Study on Correlation between Different NDF Data and Fluctuations of RMB Exchange Rate
Wang Nan,Hou Tieshan
International Journal of Economics and Finance , 2013, DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v5n5p55
Abstract: Forecasting of exchange rate is a nonlinear problem. In this paper, we use Nonlinear Auto Regressive model which is named NARX for short with exogenous Inputs to forecast RMB exchange rate. Due to the selecting of external input X can influence the accuracy of forecasting, we choose non-deliverable forward exchange rate, which is known as NDF, to be X and achieved good results. There are many kinds of NDFs in different time spans, this paper contrasts the differences of network performance when using different NDFs as X, and get the result that the correlation of using different NDFs is not that big. We can always get very good result when using any time spans’ NDF. And NDF is effective when using it to exchange rate forecasting.
An Empirical Analysis on the Model of RMB Exchange Rate Determination

WEI Wei-xian,

系统工程理论与实践 , 2000,
Abstract: The objectives of this paper are twofold. First, it is to find an acceptable model that explains the movement of Renminbi (RMB) nominal spot exchange rate in terms of macroeconomic variables. Second, by using the exchange rate data from January 1994 to March 1998 between RMB and the U.S. dollar, this paper test if the model of RMB exchange rate determination presented in reference \ is a long\|run exchange rate determination model and the hypotheses posited in the model. Results show that macroeconomic variable is a significant factor in influencing the long\|run exchange rate. This is achieved by applying the techniques of cointegration and variance decomposition as well as impulse response analysis.
An Empirical Study on the Pass-Through Effect of RMB Nominal Effective Exchange Rate on Import Price  [PDF]
Alin Xia
Modern Economy (ME) , 2017, DOI: 10.4236/me.2017.82012
Abstract: Starting from ERPT model, the paper decomposes RMB nominal effective exchange rate published in BIS into level and volatility, and analyzes the pass-through effects of RMB nominal effective exchange rate into import price from level and volatility under GARCH model. The conclusions are that, the pass-through effect of RMB nominal effective exchange rate to the level of import price is not complete, and the volatility of RMB nominal effective exchange rate has a negative impact on the volatility of import price and also has a time lag. Error correction mechanism shows that it needs about 8 months for import price to return to a balanced level after the changes of exchange rate.
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