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Ranking Swing Voters in Congressional Elections  [PDF]
Steven Ambadjes
Statistics , 2014,
Abstract: We present a model for quantitatively identifying swing voters in congressional elections. This is achieved by predicting an individual voter's likelihood to vote and an individual voter's likelihood to vote for a given party, if he votes. We make a rough prediction of these values. We then update these predictions by incorporating information on a municipality wide basis via aggregate data to enhance our estimate under the assumption that nearby voters have similar behavior, which could be due to social interaction or common external factors. Finally, we use a ranking scheme on these predictions to identify two key types of voter: 1) Voters who are likely to vote that we can convince to vote for a given party; and, 2) Voters who are likely to vote for a given party, if they vote, that we can convince to actually turn out to vote. Once these voters have been identified, a political campaign can use this information to micro-target voters and win more votes.
Elections with Few Voters: Candidate Control Can Be Easy  [PDF]
Jiehua Chen,Piotr Faliszewski,Rolf Niedermeier,Nimrod Talmon
Computer Science , 2014,
Abstract: We study the computational complexity of candidate control in elections with few voters (that is, we take the number of voters as a parameter). We consider both the standard scenario of adding and deleting candidates, where one asks if a given candidate can become a winner (or, in the destructive case, can be precluded from winning) by adding/deleting some candidates, and a combinatorial scenario where adding/deleting a candidate automatically means adding/deleting a whole group of candidates. Our results show that the parameterized complexity of candidate control (with the number of voters as the parameter) is much more varied than in the setting with many voters.
Mass Media Electioneering Campaign and Uyo (Nigeria) Voters’ Decision during 2011 General Elections  [cached]
Charles Obot
Journal of Politics and Law , 2013, DOI: 10.5539/jpl.v6n1p173
Abstract: Mass media are indispensable avenues for political parties/candidates to reach a large percentage of the electorate who would otherwise have been unreached by political campaign messages delivered at rallies. The mass media through their coverage of electioneering campaigns and airing of political advertisements have the potential of influencing voting decisions of the electorate. This study found out that many factors come into play when voters make voting decisions. It also found out that the effectiveness of mass media electioneering campaigns during the 2011 General elections in Uyo–Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria was moderated by many factors such as: monetary and material inducement, geo-ethnic consideration, perception of fairness and balance exhibited by the mass media in their coverage as well as the persuasiveness of the campaign messages. The study therefore recommends that for the mass media to exert influence on voters’ decision, they should exhibit fairness, balance, equal opportunity and access in their coverage of electioneering campaigns of all political parties and candidates.
Data Minning Application into Potential Voters Trends in Usa Elections with Regression Analysis  [cached]
Olagunju,Mukaila,Tomori,Adekola Rasheed
Journal of Asian Scientific Research , 2012,
Abstract: Background: Data Minning technique is very useful in bringing out the hidden information which is very useful to provide solution to a particular problem. Objective: The essence of this paper is to provide a basic model which relates potential voters in USA elections with periods of registration. Method: SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Sciences) is the choosen software and it was used to perform the analysis with Data Mining techniques, the raw data between 1932 to 2010 was refined and the data chosen which was twenty years were used for the analysis. With Data Mining Techniques through the linear regression analysis, the mathematical model which relate the voter’s registration in every two years. Result: Based on this model, it was discovered that there is relationship with potential voters or participant and years of registrations. Conclusion: Base on the findings,it was discurvered that the voting trend in USA election is baed on the population of the voters and the year or period also play significant role because as year incrases the population also increases.
Are voters fiscal conservatives? Evidence from Brazilian municipal elections
Arvate, Paulo Roberto;Mendes, Marcos;Rocha, Alexandre;
Estudos Econ?micos (S?o Paulo) , 2010, DOI: 10.1590/S0101-41612010000100003
Abstract: some papers in literature show that voters are fiscal conservatives, while others find evidence of a preference for fiscal profligacy. we use a traditional probit model to analyze the preference of brazilian municipal voters in the 2000 election. the main result suggests that voters prefer greater expenditure. we present evidence that this result is a consequence of a fiscal federalism model where there is a soft budget constraint for municipalities (institutional context). moreover, we obtained evidence that voters with different levels of schooling impose a different result on expenditure. the effect of expenditure is more marked in municipalities with a low level of literacy.
How Hard Is Bribery in Elections?  [PDF]
Piotr Faliszewski,Edith Hemaspaandra,Lane A. Hemaspaandra
Computer Science , 2006,
Abstract: We study the complexity of influencing elections through bribery: How computationally complex is it for an external actor to determine whether by a certain amount of bribing voters a specified candidate can be made the election's winner? We study this problem for election systems as varied as scoring protocols and Dodgson voting, and in a variety of settings regarding homogeneous-vs.-nonhomogeneous electorate bribability, bounded-size-vs.-arbitrary-sized candidate sets, weighted-vs.-unweighted voters, and succinct-vs.-nonsuccinct input specification. We obtain both polynomial-time bribery algorithms and proofs of the intractability of bribery, and indeed our results show that the complexity of bribery is extremely sensitive to the setting. For example, we find settings in which bribery is NP-complete but manipulation (by voters) is in P, and we find settings in which bribing weighted voters is NP-complete but bribing voters with individual bribe thresholds is in P. For the broad class of elections (including plurality, Borda, k-approval, and veto) known as scoring protocols, we prove a dichotomy result for bribery of weighted voters: We find a simple-to-evaluate condition that classifies every case as either NP-complete or in P.
Why Do Voters Change Their Mind during an Election Campaign? An Analysis of the Determinants of Campaign Volatility at the 2014 Belgian Federal Elections  [PDF]
Simon Willocq
Open Journal of Political Science (OJPS) , 2016, DOI: 10.4236/ojps.2016.64033
Abstract: This article examines the causes of stability and change in vote intentions during the 2014 Belgian federal election campaign. Drawing on data from the 2014 Parti Rep Belgian Voter Survey, our study aims to explain why a large number of voters have switched their vote intention in the weeks preceding the federal elections. To this end, we test a series of hypotheses drawn from different theories often referred to in the literature to account for campaign volatility. The results of our analysis reveal that voters can decide to change their vote preferences during the campaign due to strategic considerations related to their perceptions of the coalition potentials of parties. We also find that voters with a low level of political interest are more likely than highly interested voters to switch from one party to another in the weeks preceding the electoral contest. Unsurprisingly, a high degree of affection for the favourite party proves to be a barrier against campaign volatility. The higher the level of affect directed to the most preferred party, the more stable will be the vote intention. Moreover, results show that citizens with a low level of external political efficacy are more prone than others to switch parties in the last weeks of the campaign. By contrast, the ideological profile of the voter has no significant impact on campaign volatility.
Voters' Rationality Under Four Electoral Rules: A Simulation Based on the 2010 Colombian Presidential Elections
Parada,Julián;
Desarrollo y Sociedad , 2011,
Abstract: in this work we analyze the impact of the voting rule on individual behavior. we use a sample of individuals naturally motivated by real candidates. then, in our methodology we do not induce preferences. moreover, up to our knowledge, this is the first work in which both individual behavior and aggregate results are studied with a relatively large sample. we implemented an online simulation during the presidential campaigns for 2010 in colombia. voters were asked to submit experimental ballots under four different voting rules: plurality rule, approval voting, borda rule and majority rule with runoff elections. we compared the observed individual behavior with two benchmarks. the fist one considers sincere voting and the second one instrumental behavior. our results show that under approval voting and borda rule we observe a lower level of sincerity and instrumental behavior in comparison to the other two rules. however, both models predict well the aggregate outcomes under all the voting rules.
Voters’ Rationality Under Four Electoral Rules: A Simulation Based on the 2010 Colombian Presidential Elections  [PDF]
Julián Parada
Desarrollo y Sociedad , 2011,
Abstract: In this work we analyze the impact of the voting rule on individual behavior. We use a sample of individuals naturally motivated by real candidates. Then, in our methodology we do not induce preferences. Moreover, up to our knowledge, this is the first work in which both individual behavior and aggregate results are studied with a relatively large sample. We implemented an online simulation during the presidential campaigns for 2010 in Colombia. Voters were asked to submit experimental ballots under four different voting rules: plurality rule, approval voting, Borda rule and majority rule with runoff elections. We compared the observed individual behavior with two benchmarks.The fist one considers sincere voting and the second one instrumental behavior. Our results show that under approval voting and Borda rule we observe a lower level of sincerity and instrumental behavior in comparison to the other two rules. However, both models predict well the aggregate outcomes under all the voting rules.
Voting Patterns: Evidence from the 2004 Malaysian General Elections  [cached]
Khadijah Md Khalid,Halimah Awang
Journal of Politics and Law , 2009, DOI: 10.5539/jpl.v1n4p33
Abstract: This paper examines voters’ behavior and voting patterns as well as the factors influencing them using survey data of the electorate carried out in selected parliamentary and state constituencies during the 2004 Malaysian general elections. The findings from the study indicate that in the absence of major national issues, local issues pertaining to growing social problems such as urban poverty, inadequate housing, environmental degradation, petty crimes among youth, and drug abuse became more dominant. The issue of the establishment of an Islamic state also seemed to dominate the thinking of much of the non-Malay electorate and women.
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