Abstract:
We show that there can be no finite list of conditional independence relations which can be used to deduce all conditional independence implications among Gaussian random variables. To do this, we construct, for each $n> 3$ a family of $n$ conditional independence statements on $n$ random variables which together imply that $X_1 \ind X_2$, and such that no subset have this same implication. The proof relies on binomial primary decomposition.

Abstract:
Possibilistic conditional independence is investigated: we propose a definition of this notion similar to the one used in probability theory. The links between independence and non-interactivity are investigated, and properties of these relations are given. The influence of the conjunction used to define a conditional measure of possibility is also highlighted: we examine three types of conjunctions: Lukasiewicz - like T-norms, product-like T-norms and the minimum operator.

Abstract:
Conditional independence in a multivariate normal (or Gaussian) distribution is characterized by the vanishing of subdeterminants of the distribution's covariance matrix. Gaussian conditional independence models thus correspond to algebraic subsets of the cone of positive definite matrices. For statistical inference in such models it is important to know whether or not the model contains singularities. We study this issue in models involving up to four random variables. In particular, we give examples of conditional independence relations which, despite being probabilistically representable, yield models that non-trivially decompose into a finite union of several smooth submodels.

Abstract:
Valuation networks have been proposed as graphical representations of valuation-based systems (VBSs). The VBS framework is able to capture many uncertainty calculi including probability theory, Dempster-Shafer's belief-function theory, Spohn's epistemic belief theory, and Zadeh's possibility theory. In this paper, we show how valuation networks encode conditional independence relations. For the probabilistic case, the class of probability models encoded by valuation networks includes undirected graph models, directed acyclic graph models, directed balloon graph models, and recursive causal graph models.

Abstract:
This paper introduces the notions of independence and conditional independence in valuation-based systems (VBS). VBS is an axiomatic framework capable of representing many different uncertainty calculi. We define independence and conditional independence in terms of factorization of the joint valuation. The definitions of independence and conditional independence in VBS generalize the corresponding definitions in probability theory. Our definitions apply not only to probability theory, but also to Dempster-Shafer's belief-function theory, Spohn's epistemic-belief theory, and Zadeh's possibility theory. In fact, they apply to any uncertainty calculi that fit in the framework of valuation-based systems.

Abstract:
We continue the work on the relations between independence logic and the model-theoretic analysis of independence, generalizing the results of [15] and [16] to the framework of abstract independence relations for an arbitrary AEC. We give a model-theoretic interpretation of the independence atom and characterize under which conditions we can prove a completeness result with respect to the deductive system that axiomatizes independence in team semantics and statistics.

Abstract:
Independence screening is a powerful method for variable selection for `Big Data' when the number of variables is massive. Commonly used independence screening methods are based on marginal correlations or variations of it. In many applications, researchers often have some prior knowledge that a certain set of variables is related to the response. In such a situation, a natural assessment on the relative importance of the other predictors is the conditional contributions of the individual predictors in presence of the known set of variables. This results in conditional sure independence screening (CSIS). Conditioning helps for reducing the false positive and the false negative rates in the variable selection process. In this paper, we propose and study CSIS in the context of generalized linear models. For ultrahigh-dimensional statistical problems, we give conditions under which sure screening is possible and derive an upper bound on the number of selected variables. We also spell out the situation under which CSIS yields model selection consistency. Moreover, we provide two data-driven methods to select the thresholding parameter of conditional screening. The utility of the procedure is illustrated by simulation studies and analysis of two real data sets.

Abstract:
We study notions of robustness of Markov kernels and probability distribution of a system that is described by $n$ input random variables and one output random variable. Markov kernels can be expanded in a series of potentials that allow to describe the system's behaviour after knockouts. Robustness imposes structural constraints on these potentials. Robustness of probability distributions is defined via conditional independence statements. These statements can be studied algebraically. The corresponding conditional independence ideals are related to binary edge ideals. The set of robust probability distributions lies on an algebraic variety. We compute a Gr\"obner basis of this ideal and study the irreducible decomposition of the variety. These algebraic results allow to parametrize the set of all robust probability distributions.

Abstract:
In broad applications, it is routinely of interest to assess whether there is evidence in the data to refute the assumption of conditional independence of $Y$ and $X$ conditionally on $Z$. Such tests are well developed in parametric models but are not straightforward in the nonparametric case. We propose a general Bayesian approach, which relies on an encompassing nonparametric Bayes model for the joint distribution of $Y$, $X$ and $Z$. The framework allows $Y$, $X$ and $Z$ to be random variables on arbitrary spaces, and can accommodate different dimensional vectors having a mixture of discrete and continuous measurement scales. Using conditional mutual information as a scalar summary of the strength of the conditional dependence relationship, we construct null and alternative hypotheses. We provide conditions under which the correct hypothesis will be consistently selected. Computational methods are developed, which can be incorporated within MCMC algorithms for the encompassing model. The methods are applied to variable selection and assessed through simulations and criminology applications.

Abstract:
The goal of this paper is to integrate the notions of stochastic conditional independence and variation conditional independence under a more general notion of extended conditional independence. We show that under appropriate assumptions the calculus that applies for the two cases separately (axioms of a separoid) still applies for the extended case. These results provide a rigorous basis for a wide range of statistical concepts, including ancillarity and sufficiency, and, in particular, the Decision Theoretic framework for statistical causality, which uses the language and calculus of conditional independence in order to express causal properties and make causal inferences.