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Methodology and Equations of Mineral Production Forecast
—Part I. Crude Oil in the UK and Gold in Nevada, USA. Prediction of Late Stages of Production

Sergio Pérez Rodríguez
Open Journal of Geology (OJG) , 2013, DOI: 10.4236/ojg.2013.35040

The equations of mineral production forecast link the change in time of mineral reserves with the production and the ratio of reserves to production. These equations allow us to model the development of the mineral resources evaluated at any scale. Probabilistic bidimensional charts made from montecarlo simulations provide intervals of confidence for the forecasts. The set of equations is devised and presented for a variety of applications to the oil and gas industry, as well to the production of any other mineral resource, either metals or non metals, whose ore deposit volumes and production might be quantified. The cases studied in the UK and USA are at late stages of production, periods for what the equations are most suitable to be applied without further adjustments. Experimental design allows the diagnosis of the likely values of the variables pertaining to the equations, in order to achieve the results provided by conventional production forecasts or to explore other scenarios of investigation. The method can be practical to evaluate commitments of production of mineral resources with time, to support strategic plans for companies, corporations, countries or regions based on those evaluations, for the screening and ranking of mineral assets based on their production potential and many other tasks where the prediction of future volumes of mineral production is required.

Forecasting future oil production in Norway and the UK: a general improved methodology  [PDF]
Lucas Fievet,Zalàn Forrò,Peter Cauwels,Didier Sornette
Quantitative Finance , 2014,
Abstract: We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the standard methodology that tends to underestimate remaining oil reserves, our method gives a better description of future oil production, as validated by our back-tests starting in 2008. Specifically, we predict remaining reserves extractable until 2030 to be 188 +/- 10 million barrels for Norway and 98 +/- 10 million barrels for the UK, which are respectively 45% and 66% above the predictions using the standard methodology.
Forecast of Maize Production in Henan Province  [PDF]
Bingjun Li, Xiaoxiao Zhu
American Journal of Plant Sciences (AJPS) , 2018, DOI: 10.4236/ajps.2018.911164
Abstract: Considering the influence of meteorological factors on maize production, in order to improve the yield of maize in Henan Province, a grey combination model is constructed to predict the yield of maize in Henan Province. Firstly, the yield of maize in 2017 is obtained by GM (1, 1) model; secondly, the trend yield of maize is obtained by HP filter method, then the meteorological yield of maize is obtained, and the yield of maize reduction is determined according to the meteorological yield. Combined with Markov model, the maize yield reduction in various cities in Henan Province is forecasted. Finally, based on the reduction of production, policy recommendations are made for maize production in Henan Province.
The Crude Oil Price Influence on the Brazilian Industrial Production  [PDF]
Andre Assis de Salles, Pedro Henrique Acioli Almeida
Open Journal of Business and Management (OJBM) , 2017, DOI: 10.4236/ojbm.2017.52034
Abstract: The oil price is a relevant variable for economic policy makers in countries where this commodity is the main energy source as well as in other countries where crude oil is not the only energy source. The sudden variations in the crude oil price cause direct influence in the national economies bringing changes in foreign trade, investments and productive activities. Therefore, the crude oil market is very important for the economic development. Furthermore, crude oil is directly or indirectly present in all productive activities. This way the crude oil market is related to the industrial production indicators. Many researches aim at establishing the stochastic process that can represent the movements of macroeconomic indicators through the oil price returns or variations that have been done in recent years. The purpose of this work is to study the relationship between crude oil prices and selected industrial production indicators of the Brazilian economy. To do that this work carried out cointegration and causality tests, from VAR estimations, and impulse response analysis. The data used in this study is monthly macroeconomic indicators, mentioned above, and the Brent crude oil type price negotiated in the London Market. All data used is in US$. The period of the sample used is from January 2002 to October 2015.
Hamidreza Mostafaei,Ali Akbar Rahimzadeh Sani,Samira Askari
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy , 2013,
Abstract: In this study, it has been attempted to select the best continuous- time stochastic model, in order to describe and forecast the oil price of Russia, by information and statistics about oil price that has been available for oil price in the past. For this purpose, method of The Maximum Likelihood Estimation is implemented for estimation of the parameters of continuous-time stochastic processes. The result of unit root test with a structural break, reveals that time series of the crude oil price is a stationary series. The simulation of continuous-time stochastic processes and the mean square error between the simulated prices and the market ones shows that the Geometric Brownian Motion is the best model for the Russian crude oil price.
Ridge Regression: A tool to forecast wheat area and production  [cached]
Nasir Jamal,Muhammad Qasim Rind
Pakistan Journal of Statistics and Operation Research , 2007, DOI: 10.1234/pjsor.v3i2.67
Abstract: This research study is designed to develop forecasting models for acreage and production of wheat crop for Chakwal district of Rawalpindi region keeping in view the assumptions of OLS estimation. The forecasting models are developed on the basis of 15 years data from 1984-85 to 1998-99 then wheat area and production for next five years from 1999-2000 to 2003-04 is forecasted through the models and compared with the actual figures. After evaluating the accuracy of the models, final models are developed on the basis of 20 years data for the period 1984-85 to 2003-04. These linear models can be used to forecast wheat area and production of next five years. The Urea fertilizer, DAP fertilizer and manures plays a significant role to enhance the production of wheat crop. Number of ploughs in the wheat fields is significant factor to increase the production of wheat crop. Good rains in the month of October and November significantly contributes to increase the production of wheat crop and mean maximum temperature in the month of March is a significant factor to reduce the production of wheat crop.
Lucr?ri ?tiin?ifice : Management Agricol , 2009,
Abstract: Potential market for natural mineral water, food, consists of the entire population of Romania to add that people transiting the country (foreign tourists). Mineral production in 2020 could reach 1.6 million liters, according to the draft strategy of the mining industry for the period 2006-2020. For 2008, mineral production is forecast at 1.01 million liters in 2009 to 1.03 million liters. Consumption of mineral water tradition was still in Romania before 1990, the market evolution is similar to that in other European countries. With a maximum of 42 liters of mineral water per year per capita, Romania remains one of the countries with lower rates of consumption in the European Union
Evaluation of paraffins biodegradation and biosurfactant production by Bacillus subtilis in the presence of crude oil
Queiroga, Carmen Lucia;Nascimento, Lídia Regina;Serra, Gil Eduardo;
Brazilian Journal of Microbiology , 2003, DOI: 10.1590/S1517-83822003000400006
Abstract: bacillus subtilis experiments for surface tension evaluation were accomplished with culture medium containing 0.4% nitrate ions and 4% glucose basic nutrient in the presence of crude oil. surfactin production was observed by surface tension reduction of the culture broth. surfactin was isolated from bacillus subtilis fermented broth, by acid-precipitation followed by extraction with chloroform-methanol. evaluation of the linear alkanes composition was performed by capillary gas chromatography. we observed a significant reduction of the surface tension of the fermented broth indicating that the biosurfactant production was not inhibited by the crude oil presence, and that the light paraffins might have been consumed.
Large Scale Structure Forecast Constraints on Particle Production During Inflation  [PDF]
Teeraparb Chantavat,Christopher Gordon,Joseph Silk
Physics , 2010, DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevD.83.103501
Abstract: Bursts of particle production during inflation provide a well-motivated mechanism for creating bump like features in the primordial power spectrum. Current data constrains these features to be less than about 5% the size of the featureless primordial power spectrum at wavenumbers of about 0.1 h Mpc^{-1}. We forecast that the Planck cosmic microwave background experiment will be able to strengthen this constraint to the 0.5% level. We also predict that adding data from a square kilometer array (SKA) galaxy redshift survey would improve the constraint to about the 0.1% level. For features at larger wave-numbers, Planck will be limited by Silk damping and foregrounds. While, SKA will be limited by non-linear effects. We forecast for a Cosmic Inflation Probe (CIP) galaxy redshift survey, similar constraints can be achieved up to about a wavenumber of 1 h Mpc^{-1}.
hermophilic anaerobic biodegradability of water from crude oil production in batch reactors
Gutiérrez,Edixon; Caldera,Yaxcelys; Fernández,Nola; Blanco,Edith; Paz,Ninoska; Mármol,Zulay;
Revista Técnica de la Facultad de Ingeniería Universidad del Zulia , 2007,
Abstract: the anaerobic biodegradability of water from crude oil production coming from the extraction of light petroleum (appl), medium petroleum (appm) and heavy petroleum (appp) was studied under thermophilic conditions. three batch reactor of 500 ml capacity were mounted containing water from the patio of tank ulé, maracaibo. initially the reactors were operated under mesophilic condition and then the temperature was increased to a ratio of 1°c/día until reaching the temperature of 55°c ± 1°c. the time of reaction in all the cases was of 24h. the pursuit of the systems was carried out by of the measured of the chemical organic demand (cod), volatile suspended solids (vss) and total (tss), alkalinity, ph, volatile fats acids (vfa), biogas produced, methane percentage in the biogas. the results show that the waters from crude oil production provide the nutritional requirements for the development of the anaerobic microorganisms. the biodegradability of the appl was not improved when being treated under thermophilic condition. it was a contrary case with the appm and appp. on the other hand, the biodegradability of the water from crude oil production is related with the composition of crude which ones the water is associated
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