Abstract:
In this paper we present the Large Inverse Cholesky (LIC) method, an efficient method for computing the coefficient matrices of a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model.

Abstract:
We investigate the estimation of parameters in the random coefficient autoregressive model. We consider a nonstationary RCA process and show that the innovation variance parameter cannot be estimated by the quasi-maximum likelihood method. The asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator for the remaining model parameters is proven so the unit root problem does not exist in the random coefficient autoregressive model.

Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to study the asymptotic behavior of the weighted least square estimators of the unknown parameters of random coefficient bifurcating autoregressive processes. Under suitable assumptions on the immigration and the inheritance, we establish the almost sure convergence of our estimators, as well as a quadratic strong law and central limit theorems. Our study mostly relies on limit theorems for vector-valued martingales.

Abstract:
A statistical inference for random coefficient first-order autoregressive model $[RCAR(1)]$ was investigated by P.M. ROBINSON (1978) in which the coefficients varying over individuals. In this paper we attempt to generalize this result to random coefficient autoregressive model of order $p$ $[RCAR(p)]$. The stationarity condition will derived for this model.

Abstract:
The paper studies the hypothesis testing in generalized linear models with functional coefficient autoregressive (FCA) processes. The quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimators are given, which extend those estimators of Hu (2010) and Maller (2003). Asymptotic chi-squares distributions of pseudo likelihood ratio (LR) statistics are investigated.

Abstract:
This paper studies a linear regression model, whose errors are functional coefficient autoregressive processes. Firstly, the quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimators of some unknown parameters are given. Secondly, under general conditions, the asymptotic properties (existence, consistency, and asymptotic distributions) of the QML estimators are investigated. These results extend those of Maller (2003), White (1959), Brockwell and Davis (1987), and so on. Lastly, the validity and feasibility of the method are illuminated by a simulation example and a real example.

Abstract:
We investigate the asymptotic behavior of the least squares estimator of the unknown parameters of random coefficient bifurcating autoregressive processes. Under suitable assumptions on inherited and environmental effects, we establish the almost sure convergence of our estimates. In addition, we also prove a quadratic strong law and central limit theorems. Our approach mainly relies on asymptotic results for vector-valued martingales together with the well-known Rademacher-Menchov theorem.

Abstract:
Nonlinear autoregressive models are very useful for modeling many natural processes, however, the size of the class of these models is large. Functional-coefficient autoregressive models (FCAR) are useful structures for reducing the size of the class of these models. Although this structure reduces the class of nonlinear models, it is broad enough to include some common time series models as specific cases. A recent development in estimating nonlinear time series data is the spline backfitted kernel (SBK) method. This method combines the computational speed of splines with the asymptotic properties of kernel smoothing. To estimate a component function in the model, all other component functions are pre-estimated with splines and then the difference is taken of the observed time series and the pre-estimates. This difference is then used as pseudo-responses for which kernel smoothing is used to estimate the function of interest. By constructing the estimates in this way, the method does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we adapt the SBK method to FCAR models.

Abstract:
We propose three methods for forecasting a time series modeled using a functional coefficient autoregressive model (FCAR) fit via spline-backfitted local linear (SBLL) smoothing. The three methods are a "naive" plug-in method, a bootstrap method, and a multistage method. We present asymptotic results of the SBLL estimation method for FCAR models and show the estimators are oracally efficient. The three forecasting methods are compared through simulation. We find that the naive method performs just as well as the multistage method and even outperforms it in some situations. We apply the naive and multistage methods to solar irradiance data and compare forecasts based on our method to those of a linear AR model, the model most commonly applied in the solar energy literature.

Abstract:
We discuss nonparametric estimation of the distribution function $G(x)$ of the autoregressive coefficient from a panel of $N$ random-coefficient AR(1) data, each of length $n$, by the empirical distribution of lag 1 sample correlations of individual AR(1) processes. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the empirical distribution function and a class of kernel density estimators is established under some regularity conditions on $G(x)$ as $N$ and $n$ increase to infinity. A simulation study for goodness-of-fit testing compares the finite-sample performance of our nonparametric estimator to the performance of its parametric analogue discussed in Beran et al. (2010).