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Climate versus emission drivers of methane lifetime against loss by tropospheric OH from 1860–2100  [PDF]
J. G. John,A. M. Fiore,V. Naik,L. W. Horowitz
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) & Discussions (ACPD) , 2012, DOI: 10.5194/acp-12-12021-2012
Abstract: With a more-than-doubling in the atmospheric abundance of the potent greenhouse gas methane (CH4) since preindustrial times, and indications of renewed growth following a leveling off in recent years, questions arise as to future trends and resulting climate and public health impacts from continued growth without mitigation. Changes in atmospheric methane lifetime are determined by factors which regulate the abundance of OH, the primary methane removal mechanism, including changes in CH4 itself. We investigate the role of emissions of short-lived species and climate in determining the evolution of methane lifetime against loss by tropospheric OH, (τCH4_OH), in a suite of historical (1860–2005) and future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) simulations (2006–2100), conducted with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) fully coupled chemistry-climate model (CM3). From preindustrial to present, CM3 simulates an overall 5% increase in τCH4_OH due to a doubling of the methane burden which offsets coincident increases in nitrogen oxide (NOx emissions. Over the last two decades, however, the τCH4_OH declines steadily, coinciding with the most rapid climate warming and observed slow-down in CH4 growth rates, reflecting a possible negative feedback through the CH4 sink. Sensitivity simulations with CM3 suggest that the aerosol indirect effect (aerosol-cloud interactions) plays a significant role in cooling the CM3 climate. The projected decline in aerosols under all RCPs contributes to climate warming over the 21st century, which influences the future evolution of OH concentration and τCH4_OH. Projected changes in τCH4_OH from 2006 to 2100 range from 13% to +4%. The only projected increase occurs in the most extreme warming case (RCP8.5) due to the near-doubling of the CH4 abundance, reflecting a positive feedback on the climate system. The largest decrease occurs in the RCP4.5 scenario due to changes in short-lived climate forcing agents which reinforce climate warming and enhance OH. This decrease is more-than-halved in a sensitivity simulation in which only well-mixed greenhouse gas radiative forcing changes along the RCP4.5 scenario (5% vs. 13%).
Modeling the climate impact of road transport, maritime shipping and aviation over the period 1860–2100 with an AOGCM
D. J. L. Olivié, D. Cariolle, H. Teyssèdre, D. Salas, A. Voldoire, H. Clark, D. Saint-Martin, M. Michou, F. Karcher, Y. Balkanski, M. Gauss, O. Dessens, B. Koffi,R. Sausen
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) & Discussions (ACPD) , 2012,
Abstract: For the period 1860–2100 (SRES scenario A1B for 2000–2100), the impact of road transport, maritime shipping and aviation on climate is studied using an Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). In addition to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from these transport sectors, most of their non-CO2 emissions are also taken into account, i.e. the forcing from ozone, methane, black carbon, organic carbon, sulfate, CFC-12 and HFC-134a from air conditioning systems in cars, and contrails. For the year 2000, the CO2 emissions from all sectors together induce a global annual-mean surface air temperature increase of around 0.1 K. In 2100, the CO2 emissions from road transport induce a global mean warming of 0.3 K, while shipping and aviation each contribute 0.1 K. For road transport, the non-CO2 impact is largest between 2000 and 2050 (of the order of 0.1 K) becoming smaller at the end of the 21st century. The non-CO2 impact from shipping is negative, reaching 0.1 K between 2050 and 2100, while for aviation it is positive and its estimate varies between 0 and 0.15 K in 2100. The largest changes in sea-level from thermal expansion in 2000 are 1.6 mm for the CO2 emissions from road transport, and around 3 mm from the non-CO2 effects of shipping. In 2100, sea-level rises by 18 mm due to the CO2 emissions from road transport and by 4.6 mm due to shipping or aviation CO2 emissions. Non-CO2 changes are of the order of 1 mm for road transport, 6.6 mm for shipping, and the estimate for aviation varies between 1.2 and 4.3 mm. When focusing on the geographical distribution, the non-CO2 impact from road transport and shipping on the surface air temperature is only slightly stronger in northern than in southern mid-latitudes, while the impact from aviation can be a factor of 5 stronger in the northern than in the southern hemisphere. Further it is observed that most of the impacts are more pronounced at high latitudes, and that the non-CO2 emissions from aviation strongly impact the NAO index. The impacts on the oceanic meridional overturning circulation and the Ni o3.4 index are also quantified.
Distributions and climate effects of atmospheric aerosols from the preindustrial era to 2100 along Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) simulated using the global aerosol model SPRINTARS
T. Takemura
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) & Discussions (ACPD) , 2012,
Abstract: Global distributions and associated climate effects of atmospheric aerosols were simulated using a global aerosol climate model, SPRINTARS, from 1850 to the present day and projected forward to 2100. Aerosol emission inventories used by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were applied to this study. Scenarios based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used for the future projection. Aerosol loading in the atmosphere has already peaked and is now reducing in Europe and North America. However, in Asia where rapid economic growth is ongoing, aerosol loading is estimated to reach a maximum in the first half of this century. Atmospheric aerosols originating from the burning of biomass have maintained high loadings throughout the 21st century in Africa, according to the RCPs. Evolution of the adjusted forcing by direct and indirect aerosol effects over time generally correspond to the aerosol loading. The probable future pathways of global mean forcing differ based on the aerosol direct effect for different RCPs. Because aerosol forcing will be close to the preindustrial level by the end of the 21st century for all RCPs despite the continuous increases in greenhouse gases, global warming will be accelerated with reduced aerosol negative forcing.
Summertime cyclones over the Great Lakes Storm Track from 1860–2100: variability, trends, and association with ozone pollution
A. J. Turner, A. M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz,M. Bauer
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) & Discussions (ACPD) , 2013,
Abstract: Prior work indicates that the frequency of summertime mid-latitude cyclones tracking across the Great Lakes Storm Track (GLST, bounded by: 70° W, 90° W, 40° N, and 50° N) are strongly anticorrelated with ozone (O3) pollution episodes over the Northeastern United States (US). We apply the MAP Climatology of Mid-latitude Storminess (MCMS) algorithm to 6-hourly sea level pressure fields from over 2500 yr of simulations with the GFDL CM3 global coupled chemistry-climate model. These simulations include (1) 875 yr with constant 1860 emissions and forcings (Pre-industrial Control), (2) five ensemble members for 1860–2005 emissions and forcings (Historical), and (3) future (2006–2100) scenarios following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and a sensitivity simulation to isolate the role of climate warming from changes in O3 precursor emissions (RCP 4.5*). The GFDL CM3 Historical simulations capture the mean and variability of summertime cyclones traversing the GLST within the range determined from four reanalysis datasets. Over the 21st century (2006–2100), the frequency of summertime mid-latitude cyclones in the GLST decreases under the RCP 8.5 scenario and in the RCP 4.5 ensemble mean. These trends are significant when assessed relative to the variability in the Pre-industrial Control simulation. In addition, the RCP 4.5* scenario enables us to determine the relationship between summertime GLST cyclones and high-O3 events (> 95th percentile) in the absence of emission changes. The summertime GLST cyclone frequency explains less than 10% of the variability in high-O3 events over the Northeastern US in the model, implying that other factors play an equally important role in determining high-O3 events.
A global emission inventory of carbonaceous aerosol from historic records of fossil fuel and biofuel consumption for the period 1860─1997  [PDF]
C. Junker,C. Liousse
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) & Discussions (ACPD) , 2008,
Abstract: Country by country emission inventories for carbonaceous aerosol for the period 1860 to 1997 have been constructed on the basis of historic fuel production, use and trade data sets published by the United Nation's Statistical Division UNSTAT (1997), Etemad et al. (1991) and Mitchell (1992, 1993, 1995). The inventories use emission factors variable over time, which have been determined according to changes in technological development. The results indicate that the industrialisation period since 1860 was accompanied by a steady increase in black carbon (BC) and primary organic carbon (POC) emissions up to 1910. The calculations show a moderate decrease of carbonaceous aerosol emissions between 1920 and 1930, followed by an increase up to 1990, the year when emissions began to decrease again. Changes in BC and POC emissions prior to the year 1950 are essentially driven by the USA, Germany and the UK. The USSR, China and India become substantial contributors to carbonaceous aerosol emissions after 1950. Emission maps have been generated with a 1°×1° resolution based on the relative population density in each country. They will provide a helpful tool for assessing the effect of carbonaceous aerosol emissions on observed climate changes of the past.
A global emission inventory of carbonaceous aerosol from historic records of fossil fuel and biofuel consumption for the period 1860–1997  [PDF]
C. Junker,C. Liousse
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions , 2006,
Abstract: Country by country emission inventories for carbonaceous aerosol for the period 1860 to 1997 have been constructed on the basis of historic fuel production, use and trade data sets published by the United Nation's Statistical Division UNSTAT (1997), Etemad et al. (1991) and Mitchell (1992, 1993, 1995). The inventories use emission factors variable over time, which have been determined according to changes in technological development. The results indicate that the industrialisation period since 1860 was accompanied by a steady increase in black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) emissions up to 1910. The calculations show a moderate decrease of carbonaceous aerosol emissions between 1920 and 1930, followed by an increase up to 1990, the year when emissions began to decrease again. Changes in BC and OC emissions prior to the year 1950 are essentially driven by the USA, Germany and the UK. The USSR, China and India become substantial contributors to carbonaceous aerosol emissions after 1950. Emission maps have been generated with a 1°×1° resolution based on the relative population density in each country. They will provide a helpful tool for assessing the effect of carbonaceous aerosol emissions on observed climate changes of the past.
BVOC-aerosol-climate interactions in the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5.5-HAM2
R. Makkonen, A. Asmi, V.-M. Kerminen, M. Boy, A. Arneth, A. Guenther,M. Kulmala
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) & Discussions (ACPD) , 2012,
Abstract: The biosphere emits volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) which, after oxidation in the atmosphere, can partition on the existing aerosol population or even form new particles. The large quantities emitted provide means for a large potential impact on both aerosol direct and indirect effects. Biogenic responses to atmospheric temperature change can establish feedbacks even in rather short timescales. However, due to the complexity of organic aerosol partitioning, even the sign of these feedbacks is of large uncertainty. We use the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5.5-HAM2 to explore the effect of BVOC emissions on new particle formation, clouds and climate. Two BVOC emission models, MEGAN2 and LPJ-GUESS, are used. MEGAN2 shows a 25% increase while LPJ-GUESS shows a slight decrease in global BVOC emission between years 2000 and 2100. The change of shortwave cloud forcing from year 1750 to 2000 ranges from 1.4 to 1.8 W m 2 with 5 different nucleation mechanisms. We show that the change in shortwave cloud forcing from the year 2000 to 2100 ranges from 1.0 to 1.5 W m 2. Although increasing future BVOC emissions provide 3–5% additional CCN, the effect on the cloud albedo change is modest. Due to simulated decreases in future cloud cover, the increased CCN concentrations from BVOCs can not provide significant additional cooling in the future.
The Role of Aerosol in Climate Change, the Environment, and Human Health
ZHANG Ren-Jian,HO Kin-Fai,SHEN Zhen-Xing,
ZHANG Ren-Jian
,HO Kin-Fai,SHEN Zhen-Xing

大气和海洋科学快报 , 2012,
Abstract: Aerosol is an important component of the atmosphere,and its source,composition,distribution,and effects are highly complicated.Governments and scientists have given much attention to aerosol problems,and it has become a hot topic due to the important role it plays in climate change and the Earth’s environment.In this paper,1) the importance of aerosol in climate change,the atmospheric environment,and human health is summarized;2) the recent serious problems of aerosol pollution and the shortage of current aerosol research in China are pointed out;and 3) the necessity to enhance aerosol research in China is emphasized.
Organic aerosol and global climate modelling: a review
M. Kanakidou, J. H. Seinfeld, S. N. Pandis, I. Barnes, F. J. Dentener, M. C. Facchini, R. Van Dingenen, B. Ervens, A. Nenes, C. J. Nielsen, E. Swietlicki, J. P. Putaud, Y. Balkanski, S. Fuzzi, J. Horth, G. K. Moortgat, R. Winterhalter, C. E. L. Myhre, K. Tsigaridis, E. Vignati, E. G. Stephanou,J. Wilson
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) & Discussions (ACPD) , 2005,
Abstract: The present paper reviews existing knowledge with regard to Organic Aerosol (OA) of importance for global climate modelling and defines critical gaps needed to reduce the involved uncertainties. All pieces required for the representation of OA in a global climate model are sketched out with special attention to Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA): The emission estimates of primary carbonaceous particles and SOA precursor gases are summarized. The up-to-date understanding of the chemical formation and transformation of condensable organic material is outlined. Knowledge on the hygroscopicity of OA and measurements of optical properties of the organic aerosol constituents are summarized. The mechanisms of interactions of OA with clouds and dry and wet removal processes parameterisations in global models are outlined. This information is synthesized to provide a continuous analysis of the flow from the emitted material to the atmosphere up to the point of the climate impact of the produced organic aerosol. The sources of uncertainties at each step of this process are highlighted as areas that require further studies.
Organic aerosol and global climate modelling: a review  [PDF]
M. Kanakidou,J. H. Seinfeld,S. N. Pandis,I. Barnes
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions , 2004,
Abstract: The present paper reviews existing knowledge with regard to Organic Aerosol (OA) of importance for global climate modelling and defines critical gaps needed to reduce the involved uncertainties. All pieces required for the representation of OA in a global climate model are sketched out with special attention to Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA): The emission estimates of primary carbonaceous particles and SOA precursor gases are summarized. The up-to-date understanding of the chemical formation and transformation of condensable organic material is outlined. Knowledge on the hygroscopicity of OA and measurements of optical properties of the organic aerosol constituents are summarized. The mechanisms of interactions of OA with clouds and dry and wet removal processes parameterisations in global models are outlined. This information is synthesized to provide a continuous analysis of the flow from the emitted material to the atmosphere up to the point of the climate impact of the produced organic aerosol. The sources of uncertainties at each step of this process are highlighted as areas that require further studies.
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