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Macroeconomic trends and reforms in Germany  [cached]
Roberto Sabbatini
PSL Quarterly Review , 2010,
Abstract: This paper traces the main macroeconomic developments in the German economy from national unification. Its performance is compared with that of the rest of the euro area and its largest economies. The study documents as Germany s modest growth in the later 1990s was due to the restrictive impact on domestic demand coming from the deep restructuring and modernization of the production system, followed by sweeping reforms after the turn of the century. Rapid productivity increases and prolonged wage moderation, especially in industry, fuelled a large and mounting current account surplus in Germany, that compares with the deficits registered in most European countries. The study retraces the recent debate on how to correct those imbalances, recalling the arguments for and against the thesis that the countries with a current payments surplus, above all Germany, must also play an active role in fostering the adjustment of the deficit countries. A possible synthesis is proposed, based on an analysis of the formation of national income and the use of resources according to the national accounts system. The implication is that Germany may contribute to the correction of imbalances within the euro area not so much by altering the wage formation mechanism as by creating incentives for domestic investment, hence fostering employment creation, in the service sectors that are currently lagging behind the extraordinary perfomance of a number of core activities in the industry.
On Macroeconomic Reforms and Macroeconomic Resiliency: Lessons from the Great Recession  [PDF]
Peter J. Montiel
Modern Economy (ME) , 2011, DOI: 10.4236/me.2011.24058
Abstract: What are the payoffs from macroeconomic reforms? Whether such reforms yield higher long-term growth has long been controversial. However, the experience of the Great Recession suggests that other important benefits may have been neglected in the controversy over the growth benefits of reform. Specifically, in contrast with previous international recessions, recovery from the Great Recession has been led by emerging and developing economies, many of which have implemented significant reforms over the past two decades. How much of the resilience of these economies can be attributed to these reforms, and what do these lessons suggest for the desirability of further reforms? This paper is intended to provide some preliminary answers to these questions.
Macroeconomic context of economic reforms in electricity sector of transition countries
Nela Vlahini?-Dizdarevi?,Tomislav Galovi?
Zbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Rijeci : ?asopis za Ekonomsku Teoriju i Praksu , 2007,
Abstract: The paper addresses the question of macroeconomic environment and its impact on economic reforms in electricity sector of CEE countries that have become new EU Member States and SEE countries. The research is based on the thesis that macroeconomic drivers and macroeconomic context of the economic reforms in electricity sector considerably differ between developed and transition countries. The analysis aimed to test the broadly accepted assumption that regulatory reforms and liberalized environment should generally result in cost reflective prices and better quality of services. Our analysis shows that the reform results in CEE and SEE transition countries have been significantly different. Most of new EU Member States have recorded high increase in electricity prices as the result of cost re-flective tariffs level and gradual phase-out of direct and indirect electricity price subsidies. Though these cost-based tariffs have had a positive impact on efficiency improvements, they have also harmed social welfare and competitiveness in CEECs. On the other hand, most of the SEECs (except Croatia) are faced with low collection rates and still have low tariffs that do not reflect costs of supply. The other objective of the reform - quality of services has been perceived high in all CEECs, while in most SEE countries the quality of the electricity is still the obstacle to business environment
Comparison of Macroeconomic Performance of Selected Asian Countries. An Econometric Analysis of China Economic Growth and Policy Implications
Hasret Benar Balcioglu,Kivan? Vural
Theoretical and Applied Economics , 2009,
Abstract: This paper compares the key macroeconomics indicators for the selected countries: China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, Rep. and India and also makes an econometric analysis for China for the period 1961-2007. These countries are chosen on the basis of comparability of data and time without measurement errors. This study also investigates six hypotheses considering the impact of several key macroeconomic variables such as domestic saving rate, domestic investment rate, and volatility of savings, volatility of inflation, growth rate of exports and growth rate of real GNP. By using suitable statistical and econometric tests, this paper finds that prevailing performance of China depends on its superior rates of domestic saving and exports. Policies are also suggested from the differentials between the economic performances of China and other chosen Asian countries.
Furrukh Bashir,Shahbaz Nawaz,Rahat Ullah,Muhammad Ramzan Arshad
Australian Journal of Business and Management Research , 2011,
Abstract: Education is always considered as the major determinant for the development of any economy. Enrollment at various levels also shows that how much education is common within the citizens of the country. Considering the importance of enrollment, the current study examines the influence of some macroeconomic variables on various levels i.e. primary, secondary, higher, college, professional and university enrollment in Pakistan. Time series data has been gathered on consumer price index, government revenue, employed labor force, government expenditure, and health expenditure for the period from 1972 to 2010. For long run estimates, Johansen Co integration test is used and short run estimates are taken through error correction model. The results of the study exhibit positive association of employed labor force, government expenditure and health expenditure with primary, secondary, higher, college, professional and university enrollment in Pakistan. On the other side, consumer price index and government revenue have been found to be inversely influencing enrollment at various levels. Short run results are also much favorable for the economy and reveals convergence towards long run equilibrium due to any disturbances in the short run period. At the end study gives some policy implications that government should decrease consumer price index and tax rate and to increase government expenditure in terms of education and health for higher enrollment rates in Pakistan.
Keynes’ Analytical System as an Econometric Tool: Examining Macroeconomic Trends in the U.S. from 1950s to 1980s  [PDF]
Manuel A. R. Da Fonseca
Theoretical Economics Letters (TEL) , 2018, DOI: 10.4236/tel.2018.810112
Abstract: The initial goal of this paper is to develop the standard Keynes’ analytical system into a dynamic macro-econometric model, which is then applied to the analysis of macroeconomic indicators for the U.S. from 1950s to 1980s—a period marked by strong volatility of inflation, exchange rates and commodity prices. Based on the results obtained and, in particular, on the model’s structure and exogenous variables, it is possible to single out the main factors that explain the macro-trends observed in the American economy. Further, a second and more important goal is to evaluate if a simple macro-dynamic model can be a relevant tool in empirical analysis of macroeconomic developments. The results obtained indicate that, although the elements of the Keynesian system are most often used in a purely theoretical perspective, a macro-econometric model based on those elements can be successfully used in reproducing overall macroeconomic variables in a certain period—and the determinants of those macro-trends can be traced to the model’s exogenous variables.
Statistical – Econometric Analysis of the Correlations between the Social Security Budget and the Main Macroeconomic Aggregates in Romania
Emilia ?I?AN,Cristina BOBOC,Simona GHI??,Daniela TODOSE
Theoretical and Applied Economics , 2011,
Abstract: This paper analyses the correlation between social security budget and the main macroeconomic indicators (like GDP, monthly average gross earnings, unemployment) in Romania during the period 2000 – 2009. Romania faces a more severe economic recession than originally anticipated. Although the implementation of anti-crisis program was able to lead to normalization of financial conditions, the contraction of economic activity is higher than initial projections. Because of the great policy debate in Romania about the impact of the reduction of pensions and salaries and increases of taxations on the reduction of budget deficit, we have explained in our paper the basic sides of the balanced budget debate. There are three basic sides to the balanced budget debate. The traditionalists argue for a reduction of the budget deficit since it harms the economy. Another group holds the Ricardian view of government debt in believing that there is no real harm done to the economy by the national debt. A third group claims one way or another that the budget deficit is not an adequate measure of fiscal policy. We will argue which of these views is most reasonable, based on a study case. The study is based on official data published by the National Institute of Statistics, with the specification that they are transformed into real values in order to assure the data comparability. The methodology used is the correlation analysis, the factorial analysis and the regression analysis, in order to evaluate the impact of some macroeconomic policies on the budget deficit. Three hypotheses on macroeconomic policies are discussed in the paper and their influences on the budget deficit. The main problem in Romania was that the macroeconomic policies didn't give enough attention to budget deficit in order to keep it under control. This is the main cause of the actual unfavourable economical situation in Romania, with a huge budget deficit, with a decrease in economic activity, with increases of inflation and unemployment. Among the variables used in the study we mention: total incomes, total expenditure, budgetary deficit, unemployment rate, monthly average net earnings, average number of pensioners and social allowance recipients, monthly average pension of pensioners and social allowance recipients, economically active population, monthly average inflation rate. By analysing the correlation between all the studied variables we observe that there is a strong correlation between monthly average pension and monthly average net earnings. Increases in the level of earnings will determine
La tasa de interés real y la inversión privada en Venezuela: ?una relación causal? Periodo 1978-2002
Machado,N; E,Gustavo; Castellano,M; G,Alberto;
Revista de Ciencias Sociales , 2005,
Abstract: abstract the decreasing level of private investment has been the fundamental factor that characterizes the behavior of the venezuelan economy during the last quarter of a century; a situation that is explained by the failure of the model based on capitalist rent. given this situation, it was considered pertinent to study the influence that the real interest rate had on the process of accumulation of capital during period 1978-2002. according to classical theory, it was the fundamental factor in explaining the behavior of investment. in this study econometric models were used as analytical instruments, framed within an explanatory type of research. the main result of the research was the discovery of indications that reflect the lack of a relationship between private investment and the real interest rate, all of which suggests the existence of what in the terminology of french regulation-ism is known as a structural crisis: a type of crisis the recovery from which requires not only economic policy measures, but also agreements in the political arena which lead to the realization of institutional reforms
An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Macroecomomic Variables on Stock Market Movement in Nigeria  [cached]
T.O. Asaolu,M.S. Ogunmuyiwa
Asian Journal of Business Management , 2011,
Abstract: This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic variables on Average Share Price (ASP) and goes further to determine whether changes in macroeconomic variables explain movements in stock prices in Nigeria. Various econometric analysis such as Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Granger Causality test, Co-integration and Error Correction Method (ECM) were employed on time series data from 1986-2007 and the results revealed that a weak relationship exists between ASP and macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. The findings further point that ASP is not a leading indicator of macroeconomic performance in Nigeria, albeit, a long run relationship was found between ASP and macroeconomic variables for the period under review.
The reforms in China: The voice of the intellectuals
Estel·la Pareja Morte
Revista CIDOB d'Afers Internacionals , 2007,
Abstract: The approach and criticism adopted by Chinese intellectuals with respect to the country’s reforms has varied since 1978. This document analyses the evolution of the different tendencies of thought in China, from the beginning of the reforms to the present day, in order to focus on the current debate between centre-liberalism and the new left. Both stances have arrived at the same diagnosis: the high social cost of the reforms. Though obviously, they differ in their analyses of the causes and in their proposals for the future.This debate examines the challenge that both the Chinese Communist Party and Chinese society will have to face in the coming years.
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