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Dynamic Linkages between Output Growth and Macroeconomic Volatility
Constantinos Katrakilidis,Xanthippi Chapsa,Nikolaos Tabaki
International Journal of Economics and Research , 2011,
Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence regarding the causal links between macroeconomic uncertainty and output growth using Greek data. Uncertainty is considered in distinct components, namely the inflation uncertainty and the output growth uncertainty. The results reveal significant negative causal effects on output growth running from output growth uncertainty as well as from inflation uncertainty indirectly via the inflation rate.
The Dynamic Synergies between Agriculture Output and Economic Growth in Malaysia  [cached]
Hylmee Matahir,Jasman Tuyon
International Journal of Economics and Finance , 2013, DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v5n4p61
Abstract: This paper investigates the dynamic synergies between agriculture sector and economic growth in Malaysia throughout historical economic policy adjustments spanning from 1970 to 2010. From the analysis, the contribution of agriculture sector output to the Malaysian economy has been decreasing despite several agriculture-led economic growth policies that have been implemented, including the very recent New Economic Model (NEM). Specifically, we employ Johansen-Juselius (1990) cointegration test and reveals that agriculture and economic growth were found to be moving together in the long run. Moreover, we examine the direction of causality between agriculture output and economic growth within the vector error-correction model (VECM). The test shows that both agriculture and economic growth have no causality direction at least in the short run but there exist a bi-directional causality movement in the long run. From this empirical testing and policy analysis, we can suggest that policy makers should pay attention to the holistic and sustainable development of agriculture sector into their policy modelling in promoting sustainable economic growth.
Evolution of unemployment population stocks in Romania
Irena MOCANU
Revista Roman? de Statistic? , 2010,
Abstract: Effects of the current crisis on the evolution of the stocks of theunemployed persons in Romania. The present paper is focused on the analysis of general dynamic of the input and output flows in/from unemployment, emphasising the growth of the stocks of unemployed population, at national and county levels. The annexes of the annual progress reports published by the National Agency for Employment represent the data-base used in the study. The input flows in unemployment registered a constant evolution, but the outputflows from unemployment have fell in all counties, this evolutions being the source of stocks of unemployed persons. In 2008, a number of 31 counties have stocks of unemployed, ranging between 9,900 persons and 80 persons; in 2009, all the counties registered stocks of unemployed. The largest stocks (more than 10,000 persons) were specific for some counties situated in south, south-east and centre. The majority of counties registers some multi-annual averages values of the stocks of unemployed ranging between 2,500 – 1,000 persons, the largest being in Prahova, Suceava, Gala i, Arge , Dolj. Between2007 - 2009, the ratio between output form unemployment (by hiring) and input in unemployment (due to layoffs) decreased continuously and sharply in 2009 compared to 2008: 2.8 in 2007, 2.3 in 2008 and only 0.6 in 2009. The growth of the stocks of unemployed in all counties and the decrease of ration between hiring and redundancies represent ones of the effects of the current crisis.
ENTREPRENEURSHIP, UNEMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH  [PDF]
Habib Ahmad,Dr. Muhammad Kamran Naqi Khan,Iqbal Mahmood
Business and Management Review , 2011,
Abstract: The relationship between entrepreneurship and three macroeconomic variables GDP, GNI and unemployment rate is analyzed. GEM project data is used to measure level of entrepreneurship activity for 11 countries. Panel data techniques i.e. random effect model and fixed effect model are applied to investigate the relationship.Results indicate that fear of failure rate is negatively affecting GDP and GNI. Established businesses are contributing their share to boost up GDP and GNI. Unemployment is reduced by early stage entrepreneurial activity executed by both males and females. Only that entrepreneurial activity is found to effect GDP, GNI and unemployment rate which is implemented practically.
Corporate Profit Growth and Variability in US Unemployment Rate  [cached]
Rexford Abaidoo
International Journal of Economics and Finance , 2012, DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v4n7p3
Abstract: This study investigates effects of corporate profit growth, macroeconomic uncertainty and other key economic indicators on the potential for lower unemployment condition in the US economy. Using marginal effect probit estimates, this study finds that, sustained growth in corporate profit and appreciable economic growth (as measured by GDP growth) are significant in determining the likelihood of achieving lower unemployment rate. Overall results however, show that among variables tested, reduction in perceived macroeconomic uncertainty is the dominant variable with the potential to significantly impact the likelihood of having lower unemployment rate.
Macroeconomic Variables and Unemployment: The Case of Turkey  [cached]
Taylan Taner Do?an
International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues , 2012,
Abstract: This study investigates the response of unemployment to selective macroeconomics shocks over period of 2000:Q1-2010:Q1. It is found that positive shocks to growth, growth in export and and inflation reduce unemployment. On the other hand, shocks to exchange rate, interbank interest rate and money supply increase unemployment. Our results are consistent with Phillips curve and Okun’s Law suggestion. Namely, negative relationship between output and unemployment and positive relationship between unemployment and inflation are found. Also, this study found consistent results with earlier literature.
The Role of Recurrence Plots in Characterizing the Output-Unemployment Relationship: An Analysis  [PDF]
Petre Caraiani, Emmanuel Haven
PLOS ONE , 2013, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0056767
Abstract: We analyse the output-unemployment relationship using an approach based on cross-recurrence plots and quantitative recurrence analysis. We use post-war period quarterly U.S. data. The results obtained show the emergence of a complex and interesting relationship.
The growth dynamics of the Turkish economy and its impact on the unemployment  [cached]
Ayhan Ucak
International Journal of Human Sciences , 2013,
Abstract: The main purpose of this study is to present the growth dynamics of the Turkish economy and discuss the sustainability of these dynamics. Throughout this argument, it is also possible to trace some evidences of the impact of growth on the unemployment. Firstly, it is evident that growth depends on first, import -due to cheap foreign exchange- and second, high level of foreign capital inflow in the financing of import -due to the insufficiency of export revenues. In addition to that, the policy of high interest rate - low level of foreign exchange is the source of the foreign capital inflow. Secondly, import-oriented growth in the economy has shifted towards a situation in which growth rate increases with the increase in the current account deficit and growth rate declines with a decline in the current account deficit, in the last analysis. Finally, when we analyze the growth performance and the unemployment rates correspondingly, it appears that the rate of unemployment will not decrease with the growth rates below 5%. Briefly, the only way of decreasing the unemployment level is to grow 5% or more every year. Central Bank has initiated the low interest rate-more realistic foreign exchange policy as of 2011 to restrain the unsustainable current account deficit. Finding this policy a promising one, we developed additional policy proposals in the light of the growth models in the literature to achieve a growth rate over 5% which is sustainable and not causing unemployment.
sizlik ve Ekonomik Büyüme li kisinde Asimetri = Asymmetry in the Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth  [cached]
Servet CEYLAN,Burcu Y?lmaz ?AH?N
Dogus University Journal , 2010,
Abstract: Most of the empirical papers researching the validity of Okun’s law have been assumed a symmetric relationship between change of unemployment and real output growth. However, the effect of real output growth on unemployment may be different in growth cycles expansion and contraction periods. This assumption which assumes a asymmetry in Okun’s law has been verified in the recent studies. In the study, whether Okun’s relationship is symmetric or not has been investigated for Turkish economy in the period 1950-2007 using annual time series data. Co-integration analyses including TAR and M-TAR models have been used to test the asymmetric relationship. The findings of the study have shown that Okun’s law is valid in the long run and this relationship is asymmetric for the Turkish economy.
The Economic Dynamics of Inflation and Unemployment  [PDF]
Tamara Todorova
Theoretical Economics Letters (TEL) , 2012, DOI: 10.4236/tel.2012.22025
Abstract: We study the time path of inflation and unemployment using the Blanchard treatment of the relationship between the two and taking the monetary policy condition into account. We solve the model both in continuous and discrete time and compare the results. The economic dynamics of inflation and unemployment shows that they fluctuate around their intertemporal equilibria, inflation around the growth rate of nominal money supply, respectively, and unemployment around the natural rate of unemployment. However, while the continuous-time case shows uniform and smooth fluctuation for both economic variables, in discrete time their time path is explosive and nonoscillatory. The hysteresis case shows dynamic stability and convergence for inflation and unemployment to their intertemporal equilibria both in discrete and continuous time. When inflation affects unemployment adversely the time paths of the two, both in discrete and continuous time, are dynamically unstable.
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