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A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth
Vieira, Flávio Vilela;MacDonald, Ronald;
Estudos Econ?micos (S?o Paulo) , 2012, DOI: 10.1590/S0101-41612012000300001
Abstract: the paper investigates the role of real exchange rate misalignment on long-run growth for a set of ninety countries using time series data from 1980 to 2004. we first estimate a panel data model (fixed and random effects) for the real exchange rate in order to produce estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate and this is then used to construct measures of real exchange rate misalignment. we provide an alternative set of estimates of rer misalignment using panel cointegration methods. the results for the two-step system gmm panel growth models indicate that the coefficients for real exchange rate misalignment are positive for different model specification and samples, which means that a more depreciated (appreciated) real exchange rate helps (harms) long-run growth. the estimated coefficients are higher for developing and emerging countries.
Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility using GARCH Models: Empirical Evidence from Arab Countries  [cached]
Suliman Zakaria Suliman Abdalla
International Journal of Economics and Finance , 2012, DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v4n3p216
Abstract: This paper considers the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic approach in modelling exchange rate volatility in a panel of nineteen of the Arab countries using daily observations over the period of 1st January 2000 to 19th November 2011. The paper applies both symmetric and asymmetric models that capture most common stylized facts about exchange rate returns such as volatility clustering and leverage effect. Based on the GARCH(1,1) model, the results show that for ten out of nineteen currencies the sum of the estimated persistent coefficients exceed one, implying that volatility is an explosive process, in contrast, it is quite persistent for seven currencies, a result which is required to have a mean reverting variance process. Furthermore, the asymmetrical EGARCH (1,1) results provide evidence of leverage effect for majority of currencies, indicating that negative shocks imply a higher next period volatility than positive shocks. Finally, the paper concludes that the exchange rates volatility can be adequately modelled by the class of GARCH models.
The Social Cooperation between the European Community and the Countries of the Maghreb
Miquel Palomares Amat
Revista CIDOB d'Afers Internacionals , 2000,
Abstract: The objects of this study are the social regulations contained in the accords between the European Communities and the countries of the Maghreb (Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco –according to the conception of community). The social regulations contained in these cooperation accords, concluded in 1976, have as their aim the granting of certainrights to the nationals of the Maghreb States who find themselves exercising legal and salaried activities within the labor markets of the EU member States. The new Euro- Mediterranean association accords limit themselves to addressing what could be considered as the existent “social heritage”, stemming from both the regulations contained therein and, especially, through their extensive interpretation by the Courts: -no discrimination of nationality in the conditions of work, remuneration and dismissal, as well as in matters of social security; -total coverage for the periods of insurance, employment and residence; -free transference of pensions and retirement income, death inheritances, etc. The new Euro-Mediterranean association accords deposit in the hands of organscreated therein all things necessary to develop these regulations. But as a first assessment, of general character and bearing in mind the objectives of the designated Euro- Mediterranean Association, one thing is certain: the regulations in these new accords do not respond to the declarations that social and cultural cooperation would constitute one of the fundamental dimensions of this initiative.
Exchange Rates and Export Growth in Asian Economies  [cached]
Saadiah Mohamad,Hj. Kamaruzaman Jusoff
Asian Social Science , 2009, DOI: 10.5539/ass.v4n11p30
Abstract: This paper discusses the impact of exchange rates on the export performance of selected Southeast Asian economies, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. We construct an empirical model to account for the role of the real exchange rate and other economic fundamentals such as macroeconomic stability, terms of trade, capital goods investment, external demand and human capital. The study makes use of a panel data and estimates an export equation using a fixed effect model. The findings in this study strongly corroborate results from the theoretical framework that exchange rate misalignment and exchange rate variability have significant impacts on export performance. The study also finds evidence that the export growth path or these selected economies are dependent on global demand conditions, especially demand from OECD countries.
REAL EXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENT AND SECTORAL OUTPUT IN ZIMBABWE  [PDF]
Stein Masunda
International Journal of Economics and Research , 2011,
Abstract: Using the feasible generalised least squares panel data techniques and data for the period 1980 – 2003 from a representative sample of Zimbabwean sectors that include agriculture, manufacturing and mining sectors, the study indicated that real exchange rate misalignment is harmful to sectoral output.. The study indicated instead of undervaluation necessitating sectoral performance it however negatively affects sectoral output while real exchange rate overvaluation as expected, negatively and significantly affects sectoral output
Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Saudi Arabia  [cached]
Emad Omar Elhendawy
International Journal of Economics and Finance , 2012, DOI: 10.5539/ijef.v4n12p98
Abstract: This paper attempts to measure degree of misalignment of the Saudi Riyal by estimating the long run equilibrium real exchange rate of the currency. Based on cointegration technique, this paper has identified, government consumption expenditure, GDP growth and gross capital formation as important determinants of the Saudi Riyal long run equilibrium value. Results suggest that the actual real exchange rate was below the estimated equilibrium (Saudi Riyal over valued) in 1980,198 1and 1982 by 25%, 16% and 7% respectively. Following 1983, the Saudi real exchange rate rose above the equilibrium exchange rate thus starting an era of undervaluation of the Saudi currency that lasted until the year 2009.The downward slide began in 1983 when the riyal fell below its equilibrium exchange rate by 1% with the declining trend deteriorating further to 10% in 1984, 19% percent in 1985, 27% in 1986 and so on until it hit an all-time low of 84 percent below estimated equilibrium in 2006. Thereafter, the decline started receding gradually with the misalignment below exchange rate equilibrium improving to about 80 percent in 2009.
The purchasing power parity in emerging Europe: Empirical results based on two-break analysis
Mladenovi? Zorica,Josifidis Kosta,Srdi? Sla?ana
Panoeconomicus , 2013, DOI: 10.2298/pan1302179m
Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to evaluate the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) for eight countries from the Emerging Europe: Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, Lithuania, Latvia, Serbia and Turkey. Monthly data for euro and U.S. dollar based real exchange rate time series are considered covering the period: January, 2000 - August, 2011. Given significant changes in these economies in this sample it seems plausible to assume that real exchange time series are characterized by more than one time structural break. In order to endogenously determine the number and type of breaks while testing for the presence of unit roots we applied the Lee-Strazicich approach. For two euro based real exchange rate time series (in Hungary and Turkey) the unit root hypothesis has been rejected. For the U.S. dollar based real exchange rate time series in Poland, Romania and Turkey the presence of unit root has been rejected. To assess the adjustment dynamics of those real exchange rates that were detected to be stationary with two breaks, the impulse response function is calculated and half-life is estimated. Our overall conclusion is that the persistence of real exchange rate in Emerging Europe is still substantially high. The lack of strong empirical support for PPP suggests that careful policy actions are needed in this region to prevent serious exchange rate misalignment.
Choice of the exchange policies in the developments countries: Study of the competitiveness of Tunisia
Benahji Sfaxi Hend
Panoeconomicus , 2008, DOI: 10.2298/pan0803353b
Abstract: After the collapse of the Breton Woods system, the increased fluctuations of the exchange rates pushed the developing countries to adopt exchange rate policies to avoid rocking of the balance of payments. Since 1973, Tunisia adopted fixed or intermediary exchange rate policies to support or ameliorate her competitiveness and later to balance her current account. By calculating the real effective exchange rate misalignment, we showed that this country did not achieve her goals and that amelioration of competitiveness occurred only as from the moment when she softened her exchange policies. A policy of floating exchange rate is recommended for Tunisia specially why this country is more and more open. .
Exchange Rates and Export Competitiveness in Selected ASEAN Economies  [cached]
Saadiah Mohamad,Mahendhiran Nair,Kamaruzaman, Jusoff
International Business Research , 2009, DOI: 10.5539/ibr.v2n2p156
Abstract: This paper discusses the impact of exchange rates on the export performance of selected ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) economies, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. We construct an empirical model to account for the role of the real exchange rate and other economic fundamentals such as macroeconomic stability, terms of trade, capital goods investment, external demand and human capital. This work also attempts to see if the higher import content industries (such as electronics and textile) are more affected by exchange rate changes than the more resource-based industries (such as wood and rubber). The study makes use of a panel data and estimates export equations using a fixed effect model both at the aggregate and sectoral levels. The findings in this study strongly corroborate results from the theoretical framework that the exchange rate misalignment and variability have significant impact on export performance, both at the aggregate and industry level. This work also gives evidence for the importance of capital goods machinery imports (technology) and the role of human capital. The study also finds that the export growth path for the selected ASEAN economies is dependent on global demand conditions, especially demand from OECD countries. However, there is no evidence to indicate that the exports from high-import content industries are more affected by exchange rate changes than the resource based industries.
Cooperation in Terms of Defence between Spain and the Countries of the Maghreb Region  [PDF]
Carlos Echeverría Jesús
Revista CIDOB d'Afers Internacionals , 2007,
Abstract: Cooperation between Spain and the Maghreb states in the area of defence represents a sphere that includes long-term historical links (for example, with Morocco) with other relations that have been developing in recent years, and at varying rates of intensity. Theprogressive normalising of the situation in Algeria since the 1990s, the raising of the UN embargo against Libya and the rise of what are called “new dangers” (all kinds of illegal trading and a style of terrorism that is increasingly transnational and lethal) has led the states together with Mauritania and Tunisia to call for aid and cooperation from members such as Spain. Meanwhile, the revitalisation of the 5+5 group, even though it does not involve greater sub-regional cooperation in the Maghreb region, is encouraging North-South links which had until then been bilateralised, and since December 2004 the group has included the issue of defence on its agenda.
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