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What would judgment and decision making research be like if we took a Bayesian approach to hypothesis testing?
William J. Matthews
Judgment and Decision Making , 2011,
Abstract: Judgment and decision making research overwhelmingly uses null hypothesis significance testing as the basis for statistical inference. This article examines an alternative, Bayesian approach which emphasizes the choice between two competing hypotheses and quantifies the balance of evidence provided by the data---one consequence of which is that experimental results may be taken to strongly favour the null hypothesis. We apply a recently-developed ``Bayesian $t$-test'' to existing studies of the anchoring effect in judgment, and examine how the change in approach affects both the tone of hypothesis testing and the substantive conclusions that one draws. We compare the Bayesian approach with Fisherian and Neyman-Pearson testing, examining its relationship to conventional $p$-values, the influence of effect size, and the importance of prior beliefs about the likely state of nature. The results give a sense of how Bayesian hypothesis testing might be applied to judgment and decision making research, and of both the advantages and challenges that a shift to this approach would entail.
Practice Rationale Care Model: The Art and Science of Clinical Reasoning, Decision Making and Judgment in the Nursing Process  [PDF]
Jefferson Garcia Guerrero
Open Journal of Nursing (OJN) , 2019, DOI: 10.4236/ojn.2019.92008
Abstract: Nurses must be enlightened that clinical reasoning, clinical decision making, and clinical judgement are the key elements in providing safe patient care. It must be incorporated and applied all throughout the nursing process. The impact of patients’ positive outcomes relies on how nurses are effective in clinical reasoning and put into action once clinical decision making occurs. Thus, nurses with poor clinical reasoning skills frequently fail to see and notice patient worsening condition, and misguided decision making arises that leads to ineffective patient care and adding patients suffering. Clinical judgment on the other hand denotes on the outcome after the cycle of clinical reasoning. Within this context, nurses apply reflection about their actions from the clinical decision making they made. The process of applying knowledge, skills and expertise in the clinical field through clinical reasoning is the work of art in the nursing profession in promoting patient safety in the course of delivering routine nursing interventions. Nurses must be guided with their sound clinical reasoning to have an optimistic outcome and prevent iatrogenic harm to patients. Nurses must be equipped with knowledge, skills, attitude and values but most importantly prepared to face the bigger picture of responsibility to care for every patient in the clinical field.
Herbert Simon’s spell on judgment and decision making  [PDF]
Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos,Cherng-Horng (Dan) Lan
Judgment and Decision Making , 2011,
Abstract: How many judgment and decision making (JDM) researchers have not claimed to be building on Herbert Simon's work? We identify two of Simon's goals for JDM research: He sought to understand people's decision processes---the descriptive goal---and studied whether the same processes lead to good decisions---the prescriptive goal. To investigate how recent JDM research relates to these goals, we analyzed the articles published in the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making and in Judgment and Decision Making from 2006 to 2010. Out of 377 articles, 91 cite Simon or we judged them as directly relating to his goals. We asked whether these articles are integrative, in the following sense: For a descriptive article we asked if it contributes to building a theory that reconciles different conceptualizations of cognition such as neural networks and heuristics. For a prescriptive article we asked if it contributes to building a method that combines ideas of other methods such as heuristics and optimization models. Based on our subjective judgments we found that the proportion of integrative articles was 67% of the prescriptive and 52% of the descriptive articles. We offer suggestions for achieving more integration of JDM theories. The article concludes with the thesis that although JDM researchers work under Simon's spell, no one really knows what that spell is.
Theories of truth as assessment criteria in judgment and decision making  [PDF]
Philip T. Dunwoody
Judgment and Decision Making , 2009,
Abstract: Hammond (1996) argued that much of the research in the field of judgment and decision making (JDM) can be categorized as focused on either coherence or correspondence (CandC) and that, in order to understand the findings of the field, one needs to understand the differences between these two criteria. extit{Hammond's claim} is that conclusions about the competence of judgments and decisions will depend upon the selection of coherence or correspondence as the criterion (Hammond, 2008). First, I provide an overview of the terms coherence and correspondence (CandC) as philosophical theories of truth and relate them to the field of JDM. Second, I provide an example of Hammond's claim by examining literature on base rate neglect. Third, I examine Hammond's claim as it applies to the broader field of JDM. Fourth, I critique Hammond's claim and suggest that refinements to the CandC distinction are needed. Specifically, the CandC distinction 1) is more accurately applied to criteria than to researchers, 2) should be refined to include two important types of coherence (inter and intrapersonal coherence) and 3) neglects the third philosophical theory of truth, pragmatism. Pragmatism, as a class of criteria in JDM, is defined as goal attainment. In order to provide the most complete assessment of human judgment possible, and understand different findings in the field of JDM, all three criteria should be considered.
A group decision-making aggregation process
Halouani Nesrin,Chabchoub Habib,Martel Jean-Marc
Yugoslav Journal of Operations Research , 2008, DOI: 10.2298/yjor0802205h
Abstract: Within the frame of decision aid literature, decision making problems with multiple sources of information have drawn the attention of researchers from a wide spectrum of disciplines. In decision situations with multiple individuals, each one has his own knowledge of the decision problem alternatives. The use of information assessed in different domains is not a seldom situation. This non-homogeneous information can be represented by values belonging to domains with different nature as linguistic, numerical and interval valued or can be values assessed in label sets with different granularity and multigranular linguistic information. Decision processes for solving these problems are composed by two steps: aggregation and exploitation. The main problem to deal with non-homogeneous contexts is the aggregation manner of the information assessed in these contexts. The purpose of this paper is to address this problem and establish a procedure to aggregate individual opinions into a common decision to deal with non-homogeneous contexts. This process combines at the same time numerical, interval valued and linguistic information. Since subjectivity, vagueness and imprecision enter into the assessments of experts, the 2-tuple fuzzy linguistic representation model is used to deal with the fuzziness of human judgment.
Patients’ decision making process  [PDF]
Ippoliti R.,Falavigna G.
Working Paper of Public Health , 2012,
Abstract: Object: this work tries to solve some open issues related to the patients’ decision making process and their choice of the medical center for hospitalization among several suppliers of medical treatments; Methodology: taking behavioral bibliography into consideration, a decision making process is proposed;Results: this paper suggests that people’s choice are more reactive to the way in which a message could be given (i.e. physicians’ framing strategy) than to the content of that information;Conclusions: according to the gravitational behavior model, the physicians’ approach can induce an overestimation of the net benefit from going to the hospital located in the other region, higher than the net loss of consuming a quality level different from the desired one in the residential one.
Editorial: Methodology in judgment and decision making research  [PDF]
Andreas Glockner,Benjamin E. Hilbig
Judgment and Decision Making , 2011,
Abstract: In this introduction to the special issue on methodology, we provide background on its original motivation and a systematic overview of the contributions. The latter are discussed with correspondence to the phase of the scientific process they (most strongly) refer to: Theory construction, design, data analysis, and cumulative development of scientific knowledge. Several contributions propose novel measurement techniques and paradigms that will allow for new insights and can thus avail researchers in JDM and beyond. Another set of contributions centers around how models can best be tested and/or compared. Especially when viewed in combination, the papers on this topic spell out vital necessities for model comparisons and provide approaches that solve noteworthy problems prior work has been faced with.
Modeling of Mixed Decision Making Process  [PDF]
Nesrine Ben Yahia,Narjès Bellamine,Henda Ben Ghezala
Computer Science , 2012,
Abstract: Decision making whenever and wherever it is happened is key to organizations success. In order to make correct decision, individuals, teams and organizations need both knowledge management (to manage content) and collaboration (to manage group processes) to make that more effective and efficient. In this paper, we explain the knowledge management and collaboration convergence. Then, we propose a formal description of mixed and multimodal decision making (MDM) process where decision may be made by three possible modes: individual, collective or hybrid. Finally, we explicit the MDM process based on UML-G profile.
The Decision Making Individual Differences Inventory and guidelines for the study of individual differences in judgment and decision-making research  [PDF]
Kirstin C. Appelt,Kerry F. Milch,Michel J. J. Handgraaf,Elke U. Weber
Judgment and Decision Making , 2011,
Abstract: Individual differences in decision making are a topic of longstanding interest, but often yield inconsistent and contradictory results. After providing an overview of individual difference measures that have commonly been used in judgment and decision-making (JDM) research, we suggest that our understanding of individual difference effects in JDM may be improved by amending our approach to studying them. We propose four recommendations for improving the pursuit of individual differences in JDM research: a more systematic approach; more theory-driven selection of measures; a reduced emphasis on main effects in favor of interactions between individual differences and decision features, situational factors, and other individual differences; and more extensive communication of results (whether significant or null, published or unpublished). As a first step, we offer our database---the Decision Making Individual Differences Inventory (DMIDI; html://www.dmidi.net), a free, public resource that categorizes and describes the most common individual difference measures used in JDM research.
The student decision making process
Enache, I.-C.
Bulletin of the Transilvania University of Brasov. Series V : Economic Sciences , 2012,
Abstract: This paper aims to improve the understanding of the process used by students when they are faced with a decision regarding their academic future. In order to achieve this objective a survey was conducted and the student goals and expectations were analysed. The conclusions show that an important number of students are interested in a master programme and their decision to choose a specific program is based on several important factors.
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