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A comparative analysis on two solar proton events
GuiMing Le,YanBen Han,YiJun Zhang
Chinese Science Bulletin , 2007, DOI: 10.1007/s11434-007-2220-7
Abstract: This paper presents a comparative analysis on the two Solar Proton Events (SPE), which occurred on 14 July 2000 (Bastille Day) and 28 October 2003 (28OCT03) respectively. It is found that although the peak flux of the latter seemed to be greater than that of the former based on geostationary observations, the maximum intensities of the energetic protons (>10 MeV and 30 MeV) during the Bastille Day event were all higher than those of the 28OCT03 event according to the interplanetary observations. Further analysis indicated that the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energies exceeding 10 and 30 MeV by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven shock on 14 July 2000, was far larger than that of the 28OCT03 event. In the Bastille Day case, when the CME approached to the height around 14 R⊙, the CME-driven shock would reach its maximum capacity in accelerating the solar energetic protons (>100 MeV). In contrast, on 28 October 2003, when CME approached to the height about 58R⊙, the CME-driven shock reached its highest potential in accelerating the solar energetic protons of the same category. At this moment, the peak flux (>100 MeV) was about 155 pfu, which was much lower than 355 pfu measured on 14 July 2000. This demonstrated that in the Bastille Day event, the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energy beyond 100 MeV, was significantly larger than its counterpart in the 28OCT03 case. Therefore, the peak flux of an SPE event depends not only on the interplanetary intensity of the solar energetic particles, but also on the velocity of the associated CME-driven shock, and the quantity of the seed particles as well as on the interplanetary magnetic environment. This paper also reveals that the magnetic sheath associated with ICME on 28 October 2003 captured a large number of solar energetic protons, including those having energy greater than 100 MeV.
A comparative analysis on two solar proton events
LE GuiMing,HAN YanBen,ZHANG YiJun,
LE
,GuiMing,HAN,YanBen,ZHANG,YiJun

科学通报(英文版) , 2007,
Abstract: This paper presents a comparative analysis on the two Solar Proton Events (SPE), which occurred on 14 July 2000 (Bastille Day) and 28 October 2003 (28OCT03) respectively. It is found that although the peak flux of the latter seemed to be greater than that of the former based on geostationary observations, the maximum intensities of the energetic protons (>10 MeV and 30 MeV) during the Bastille Day event were all higher than those of the 28OCT03 event according to the interplanetary observations. Further analysis indicated that the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energies exceeding 10 and 30 MeV by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven shock on 14 July 2000, was far larger than that of the 28OCT03 event. In the Bastille Day case, when the CME approached to the height around 14 R⊙, the CME-driven shock would reach its maximum capacity in accelerating the solar energetic protons (>100 MeV). In contrast, on 28 October 2003, when CME approached to the height about 58R⊙, the CME-driven shock reached its highest potential in accelerating the solar energetic protons of the same category. At this moment, the peak flux (>100 MeV) was about 155 pfu, which was much lower than 355 pfu measured on 14 July 2000. This demonstrated that in the Bastille Day event, the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energy beyond 100 MeV, was significantly larger than its counterpart in the 28OCT03 case. Therefore, the peak flux of an SPE event depends not only on the interplanetary intensity of the solar energetic particles, but also on the velocity of the associated CME-driven shock, and the quantity of the seed particles as well as on the interplanetary magnetic environment. This paper also reveals that the magnetic sheath associated with ICME on 28 October 2003 captured a large number of solar energetic protons, including those having energy greater than 100 MeV. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 10373017 & 5067702)
Statistical techniques for the detection and analysis of solar explosive events  [PDF]
Luis M. Sarro,Angel Berihuete
Physics , 2011, DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/201014894
Abstract: Solar explosive events are commonly explained as small scale magnetic reconnection events, although unambiguous confirmation of this scenario remains elusive due to the lack of spatial resolution and of the statistical analysis of large enough samples of this type of events. In this work, we propose a sound statistical treatment of data cubes consisting of a temporal sequence of long slit spectra of the solar atmosphere. The analysis comprises all the stages from the explosive event detection to its characterization and the subsequent sample study. We have designed two complementary approaches based on the combination of standard statistical techniques (Robust Principal Component Analysis in one approach and wavelet decomposition and Independent Component Analysis in the second) in order to obtain least biased samples. These techniques are implemented in the spirit of letting the data speak for themselves. The analysis is carried out for two spectral lines: the C IV line at 1548.2 angstroms and the Ne VIII line at 770.4 angstroms. We find significant differences between the characteristics of the line profiles emitted in the proximities of two active regions, and in the quiet Sun, most visible in the relative importance of a separate population of red shifted profiles. We also find a higher frequency of explosive events near the active regions, and in the C IV line. The distribution of the explosive events characteristics is interpreted in the light of recent numerical simulations. Finally, we point out several regions of the parameter space where the reconnection model has to be refined in order to explain the observations.
Relationship between Solar Energetic Particles and Properties of Flares and CMEs: Statistical Analysis of Solar Cycle 23 Events  [PDF]
M. Dierckxsens,K. Tziotziou,S. Dalla,I. Patsou,M. S. Marsh,N. B. Crosby,O. Malandraki,G. Tsiropoula
Physics , 2014, DOI: 10.1007/s11207-014-0641-4
Abstract: A statistical analysis of the relationship between solar energetic particles (SEPs) and properties of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is presented. SEP events during solar cycle 23 are selected which are associated with solar flares originating on the visible hemisphere of the Sun and at least of magnitude M1. Taking into account all flares and CMEs that occurred during this period, the probability for the occurrence of an SEP event near Earth is determined. A strong rise of this probability is observed for increasing flare intensities, more western locations, larger CME speeds and halo CMEs. The correlations between the proton peak flux and these solar parameters are derived for a low (>10 MeV) and high (>60 MeV) energy range excluding any flux enhancement due to the passage of fast interplanetary shocks. The obtained correlation coefficients are: 0.55+-0.07 (0.63+-0.06) with flare intensity and 0.56+-0.08 (0.40+-0.09) with the CME speed for E>10 MeV (E>60 MeV). For both energy ranges, the correlations with flare longitude and CME width are very small or non-existent. Furthermore, the occurrence probabilities, correlation coefficients and mean peak fluxes are derived in multi-dimensional bins combining the aforementioned solar parameters. The correlation coefficients are also determined in different proton energy channels ranging from 5 to 200 MeV. The results show that the correlation between the proton peak flux and the CME speed decreases with energy, while the correlation with the flare intensity shows the opposite behavior. Furthermore, the correlation with the CME speed is stronger than the correlation with the flare intensity below 15 MeV and becomes weaker above 20 MeV. Excluding the flux enhancements due to interplanetary shocks, only a small but not very significant change is observed in the correlation between the peak flux below 7 MeV and the CME speed.
The Statistical and Numerical Study of the Longitudinally Asymmetric Distribution of Solar Proton Events Affecting the Earth Environment of 1996-2011  [PDF]
Hongqing He,Weixing Wan
Physics , 2015,
Abstract: Large solar proton events (SPEs) affect the solar-terrestrial space environment and become a very important aspect in space weather research. In this work, we statistically investigate 78 solar proton events of 1996-2011 and find that there exists a longitudinally asymmetric distribution of flare sources of the solar proton events observed near 1 AU, namely, with the same longitude separation between magnetic field line footpoint of observer and flare sources, the number of the solar proton events originating from sources located at eastern side of the nominal magnetic footpoint of observer is much larger than that of the solar proton events originating from sources located at western side. A complete model calculation of solar energetic particle (SEP) propagation in the three-dimensional Parker interplanetary magnetic field is presented to give a numerical explanation for this longitudinally asymmetric distribution phenomenon. We find that the longitudinally asymmetric distribution of solar proton events results from the east-west azimuthal asymmetry in the topology of the Parker interplanetary magnetic field as well as the effects of perpendicular diffusion on the transport of SEPs in the heliosphere. Our results would be valuable in understanding the solar-terrestrial relations and useful in space weather forecasting.
Type II and Type III Radio Bursts and their Correlation with Solar Energetic Proton Events  [PDF]
L. M. Winter,K. Ledbetter
Physics , 2015, DOI: 10.1088/0004-637X/809/1/105
Abstract: Using the Wind/WAVES radio observations from 2010-2013, we present an analysis of the 123 decametric-hectometric (DH) type II solar radio bursts during this period, the associated type III burst properties, and their correlation with solar energetic proton (SEP) properties determined from analysis of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) observations. We present a useful catalog of the type II burst, type III burst, Langmuir wave, and proton flux properties for these 123 events, which we employ to develop a statistical relationship between the radio properties and peak proton flux that can be used to forecast SEP events. We find that all SEP events with a peak > 10 MeV flux above 15 pfu are associated with a type II burst and virtually all SEP events, 92%, are also associated with a type III radio burst. Based on a principal component analysis, the radio burst properties that are most highly correlated with the occurrence of gradual SEP events and account for the most variance in the radio properties are the type III burst intensity and duration. Further, a logistic regression analysis with the radio-derived principal component (dominated by the type III and type II radio burst intensity and type III duration) obtains SEP predictions approaching the human forecaster rates, with a false alarm rate of 22%, a probability of detection of 62%, and with 85% of the classifications correct. Therefore, type III radio bursts that occur along with a DH type II burst are shown to be an important diagnostic that can be used to forecast SEP events.
Statistical Evidence for Contributions of Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections to Major Solar Energetic Particle Events  [PDF]
G. Trottet,S. Samwel,K. -L. Klein,T. Dudok de Wit,R. Miteva
Physics , 2014, DOI: 10.1007/s11207-014-0628-1
Abstract: Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are related to flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This work is a new investigation of statistical relationships between SEP peak intensities - deka-MeV protons and near-relativistic electrons - and characteristic quantities of the associated solar activity. We consider the speed of the CME and quantities describing the flare-related energy release: peak flux and fluence of soft X-ray (SXR) emission, fluence of microwave emission. The sample comprises 38 SEP events associated with strong SXR bursts (classes M and X) in the western solar hemisphere between 1997 and 2006, and where the flare-related particle acceleration is accompanied by radio bursts indicating electron escape to the interplanetary space. The main distinction of the present statistical analysis from earlier work is that besides the classical Pearson correlation coefficient the partial correlation coefficients are calculated in order to disentangle the effects of correlations between the solar parameters themselves. The classical correlation analysis shows the usual picture of correlations with broad scatter between SEP peak intensities and the different parameters of solar activity, and strong correlations between the solar activity parameters themselves. The partial correlation analysis shows that the only parameters that affect significantly the SEP intensity are the CME speed and the SXR fluence. The SXR peak flux and the microwave fluence have no additional contribution. We conclude that these findings bring statistical evidence that both flare acceleration and CME shock acceleration contribute to the deka-MeV proton and near-relativistic electron populations in large SEP events.
Statistical analysis of long-duration low-density solar wind events  [PDF]
S. Watari,T. Watanabe,K. Marubashi
Annales Geophysicae (ANGEO) , 2003,
Abstract: Low solar wind density with long duration was measured by in situ observation between 11 and 12 May 1999. As a result of this low-density solar wind condition, the magnetosphere of the Earth expanded considerably. We used a database of one-hour-averaged solar wind (1963–1999) near 1 AU to determine whether or not the observed low-density event was extremely abnormal. As a result it was found that this event has the longest duration in approximately 36 years of solar wind observations. There are three events with density 0.5 cm-3 or less and duration ten hours or longer. They were observed on 4 and 31 July 1979, and 11–12 May 1999. The 4 July 1979 event recurred on 31 July 1979. The events were characterized by low-beta, low Alfven Mach number (MA ), and low dynamic pressure. The occurrence rate of low-density solar wind with density 0.5 cm-3 or less shows several peaks near solar maxima. However, it is difficult to find a clear relationship between the sunspot number and the occurrence rate. Key words. Interplanetary physics (flare and stream dynamics; solar wind plasma; sources of the solar wind)
Nitrate ions spikes in ice cores are not suitable proxies for solar proton events  [PDF]
Katharine A. Duderstadt,Jack E. Dibb,Charles H. Jackman,Cora E. Randall,Nathan A. Schwadron,Stanley C. Solomon,Harlan E. Spence,Valery A. Yudin
Physics , 2015,
Abstract: Nitrate ion spikes in polar ice cores are contentiously used to estimate the intensity, frequency, and probability of historical solar proton events, quantities that are needed to prepare for potentially society-crippling space weather events. We use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model to calculate how large an event would have to be to produce enough odd nitrogen throughout the atmosphere to be discernible as nitrate peaks at the Earth's surface. These hypothetically large events are compared with probability of occurrence estimates derived from measured events, sunspot records, and cosmogenic radionuclides archives. We conclude that the fluence and spectrum of solar proton events necessary to produce odd nitrogen enhancements equivalent to the spikes of nitrate ions in Greenland ice cores are unlikely to have occurred throughout the Holocene, confirming that nitrate ions in ice cores are not suitable proxies for historical individual solar proton events.
Solar Energetic Particle Events in the 23rd Solar Cycle: Interplanetary Magnetic Field Configuration and Statistical Relationship with Flares and CMEs  [PDF]
R. Miteva,K. -L. Klein,O. Malandraki,G. Dorrian
Physics , 2014, DOI: 10.1007/s11207-012-0195-2
Abstract: We study the influence of the large-scale interplanetary magnetic field configuration on the solar energetic particles (SEPs) as detected at different satellites near Earth and on the correlation of their peak intensities with the parent solar activity. We selected SEP events associated with X and M-class flares at western longitudes, in order to ensure good magnetic connection to Earth. These events were classified into two categories according to the global interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) configuration present during the SEP propagation to 1AU: standard solar wind or interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). Our analysis shows that around 20% of all particle events are detected when the spacecraft is immersed in an ICME. The correlation of the peak particle intensity with the projected speed of the SEP-associated coronal mass ejection is similar in the two IMF categories of proton and electron events, $\approx 0.6$. The SEP events within ICMEs show stronger correlation between the peak proton intensity and the soft X-ray flux of the associated solar flare, with correlation coefficient $r=\,$0.67$\pm$0.13, compared to the SEP events propagating in the standard solar wind, $r=\,$0.36$\pm$0.13. The difference is more pronounced for near-relativistic electrons. The main reason for the different correlation behavior seems to be the larger spread of the flare longitude in the SEP sample detected in the solar wind as compared to SEP events within ICMEs. We discuss to which extent observational bias, different physical processes (particle injection, transport, etc.), and the IMF configuration can influence the relationship between SEPs and coronal activity.
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