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Precise prediction model and simplified scoring system for sustained combined response to interferon-α  [cached]
Qian-Guo Mao, Jin-Shui Pan, Kuang-Nan Fang, Ru-Mian Zhang, Qing-Yang Hong, Min-Ning Song, Jian-Ping Zhu, Wen-Qi Huang, Li-Min Chen, Mei-Zhu Hong
World Journal of Gastroenterology , 2010,
Abstract: AIM: To establish a predictive algorithm which may serve for selecting optimal candidates for interferon-α (IFN-α) treatment.METHODS: A total of 474 IFN-α treated hepatitis B virus e antigen (HBeAg)-positive patients were enrolled in the present study. The patients’ baseline characteristics, such as age, gender, blood tests, activity grading (G) of intrahepatic inflammation, score (S) of liver fibrosis, hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA and genotype were evaluated; therapy duration and response of each patient at the 24th wk after cessation of IFN-α treatment were also recorded. A predictive algorithm and scoring system for a sustained combined response (CR) to IFN-α therapy were established. About 10% of the patients were randomly drawn as the test set. Responses to IFN-α therapy were divided into CR, partial response (PR) and non-response (NR). The mixed set of PR and NR was recorded as PR+NR.RESULTS: Stratified by therapy duration, the most significant baseline predictive factors were alanine aminotransferase (ALT), HBV DNA level, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), HBV genotype, S, G, age and gender. According to the established model, the accuracies for sustained CR and PR+NR, respectively, were 86.4% and 93.0% for the training set, 81.5% and 91.0% for the test set. For the scoring system, the sensitivity and specificity were 78.8% and 80.6%, respectively. There were positive correlations between ALT and AST, and G and S, respectively.CONCLUSION: With these models, practitioners may be able to propose individualized decisions that have an integrated foundation on both evidence-based medicine and personal characteristics.
Validity and Reliability Indices of Three-Multiple Choice Tests Using the Confidence Scoring Procedure
M.S. Omirin
The Social Sciences , 2013,
Abstract: The study investigated the validity and reliability indices of three multiple choice tests, using the Confidence Scoring Procedure (CSP). The study also sought to determine whether or not the validity and reliability indices would be improved, if the tests were scored using the confidence scoring method. The population consisted of all SS2 secondary school students in Gbonyin Local Government Area of Ekiti State, Nigeria. The sample consisted 450 SS2 mathematics students, selected by the purposive and proportional sampling techniques. The instrument was a 50-item achievement test in mathematics of three formats each, the instrument was administered on the students as a class test. The three multiple choice tests were mixed and the testees did not know that they were answering different forms of the same tests. The responses were scored using the confidence scoring method. Two null hypothesis were generated and tested at 0.05 level of significance, using Kuder-Richardson`s formula 20, Z-ratio and correlation. The result showed that the contribution of blind guessing to testees was not directly related to the validity of the three multiple choice tests used. The confidence scoring procedure improved the reliability index of multiple choice of the tests used, except the validity of the 3-alternative choice. The result also showed that confidence scoring procedure rewards partial knowledge of testees on multiple choice tests. Based on the findings above, it was recommended that the confidence scoring method should be encouraged, since it improves validity and reliability indices of tests.
Development of a simplified diagnostic indicators scoring system and validation for peptic ulcer perforation in a developing country  [cached]
Suriya C,Kasatpibal N,Kunaviktikul W,Kayee T
Clinical and Experimental Gastroenterology , 2012,
Abstract: Chutikarn Suriya,1 Nongyao Kasatpibal,2 Wipada Kunaviktikul,2 Toranee Kayee31Clinical Epidemiology Program, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, 2Faculty of Nursing, Chiang Mai University, 3Department of Surgery, Nakornping Hospital, Chiang Mai, ThailandObjective: To perform and confirm a simplified diagnostic indicators scoring system for predicting peptic ulcer perforation (PUP).Methods: A case–control study was conducted including 812 consecutive patients with PUP from retrospective medical records. Each diagnostic indicator measurable at the time of admittance was analyzed by a multiple regression. Stepwise logistic regression was applied with backward elimination of statistically significant predictors from the full model, with P ≥ 0.05 for exclusion. The item scores were transformed from regression coefficients and computed to a total score. The risk of PUP was interpreted using total scores as a simple predictor. This system was internally validated in 218 consecutive patients and compared to existing systems.Results: A PUP risk score was determined from the diagnostic indicators associated with PUP: gender, age, nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs used, history of peptic ulcer, intense abdominal pain, guarding, X-ray free air positive, and referral from other hospitals. Item scores ranged from 0–6.0 and the total score ranged from 0–34.0. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve shows that there was 91.73% accuracy in the total scores predicting the likelihood of PUP. The likelihood of PUP among low risk (scores <10.5), moderate risk (scores 11–21), and high risk (scores ≥ 21.5) patients was 0.13, 11.44, and 1.95, respectively.Conclusion: This scoring system is an effective diagnostic indicator for identifying the complex cases of PUP. It is a simple system and can help guide clinicians, providing them with a more efficient way to accurately subgroup patients while also reducing potential biases.Keywords: peptic ulcer perforation, risk scoring, prediction
Development of a simplified diagnostic indicators scoring system and validation for peptic ulcer perforation in a developing country
Suriya C, Kasatpibal N, Kunaviktikul W, Kayee T
Clinical and Experimental Gastroenterology , 2012, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/CEG.S35211
Abstract: pment of a simplified diagnostic indicators scoring system and validation for peptic ulcer perforation in a developing country Original Research (943) Total Article Views Authors: Suriya C, Kasatpibal N, Kunaviktikul W, Kayee T Published Date September 2012 Volume 2012:5 Pages 187 - 194 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/CEG.S35211 Received: 20 June 2012 Accepted: 27 August 2012 Published: 25 September 2012 Chutikarn Suriya,1 Nongyao Kasatpibal,2 Wipada Kunaviktikul,2 Toranee Kayee3 1Clinical Epidemiology Program, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, 2Faculty of Nursing, Chiang Mai University, 3Department of Surgery, Nakornping Hospital, Chiang Mai, Thailand Objective: To perform and confirm a simplified diagnostic indicators scoring system for predicting peptic ulcer perforation (PUP). Methods: A case–control study was conducted including 812 consecutive patients with PUP from retrospective medical records. Each diagnostic indicator measurable at the time of admittance was analyzed by a multiple regression. Stepwise logistic regression was applied with backward elimination of statistically significant predictors from the full model, with P ≥ 0.05 for exclusion. The item scores were transformed from regression coefficients and computed to a total score. The risk of PUP was interpreted using total scores as a simple predictor. This system was internally validated in 218 consecutive patients and compared to existing systems. Results: A PUP risk score was determined from the diagnostic indicators associated with PUP: gender, age, nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs used, history of peptic ulcer, intense abdominal pain, guarding, X-ray free air positive, and referral from other hospitals. Item scores ranged from 0–6.0 and the total score ranged from 0–34.0. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve shows that there was 91.73% accuracy in the total scores predicting the likelihood of PUP. The likelihood of PUP among low risk (scores <10.5), moderate risk (scores 11–21), and high risk (scores ≥ 21.5) patients was 0.13, 11.44, and 1.95, respectively. Conclusion: This scoring system is an effective diagnostic indicator for identifying the complex cases of PUP. It is a simple system and can help guide clinicians, providing them with a more efficient way to accurately subgroup patients while also reducing potential biases.
Modeling study on the validity of a possibly simplified representation of proteins  [PDF]
Jun Wang,Wei Wang
Physics , 2000, DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.61.6981
Abstract: The folding characteristics of sequences reduced with a possibly simplified representation of five types of residues are shown to be similar to their original ones with the natural set of residues (20 types or 20 letters). The reduced sequences have a good foldability and fold to the same native structure of their optimized original ones. A large ground state gap for the native structure shows the thermodynamic stability of the reduced sequences. The general validity of such a five-letter reduction is further studied via the correlation between the reduced sequences and the original ones. As a comparison, a reduction with two letters is found not to reproduce the native structure of the original sequences due to its homopolymeric features.
Reliability and Validity of Simplified Chinese Version of Roland-Morris Questionnaire in Evaluating Rural and Urban Patients with Low Back Pain  [PDF]
Honglei Yi, Xinran Ji, Xianzhao Wei, Ziqiang Chen, Xinhui Wang, Xiaodong Zhu, Wei Zhang, Jiayu Chen, Diqing Zhang, Ming Li
PLOS ONE , 2012, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0030807
Abstract: Objective The causes of low back pain in China and Western countries are extremely different. We attempted to analyze the risk factors of low back pain in urban and rural patients under the dual economy with the simplified Chinese version of Roland-Morris disability questionnaire (SC-RMDQ) to demonstrate that SC-RMDQ could evaluate patients with low back pain arising from different causes. Methods Roland-Morris disability questionnaire was translated into SCRMDQ according to international guidelines for questionnaire adaptation. In this study, causes of low back pain of 187 outpatients and inpatients (99 urban patients and 88 rural patients) were analyzed. All patients underwent simplified Chinese version of Roland-Morris disability questionnaire (SC-RMDQ), simplified Chinese Oswestry disability index (SCODI) and visual analogue scale (VAS). Reliability was tested using reproducibility (intraclass coefficient of correlation – ICC) and internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha). Validity was tested using Pearson correlation analysis. Results The leading causes for low back pain were sedentariness (38.4%) and vibration (18.1%) in urban patients and waist bending (48.9%) and spraining (25%) in rural patients. Although causes of low back pain in the two groups of population were completely different, SCRMDQ had high internal consistency (Cronbach's α value of 0.874 in urban patients and 0.883 in rural patients) and good reproducibility (ICC value of .952 in urban patients and 0.949 in rural patients, P<0.01). SCRMDQ also showed significant correlation with Simplified Chinese version of Oswestry disability index (SCODI) and visual analogue scale (VAS) in rural areas (SCRMDQ-SCODI r = 0.841; SCRMDQ -VAS: r = 0.685, P<0.01) and in urban areas (SCRMDQ-SCODI: r = 0.818, P<0.01; SCRMDQ –VAS: r = 0.666, P<0.01). Conclusions Although causes of low back pain are completely different in rural and urban patients, SCRMDQ has a good reliability and validity, which is a reliable clinical method to evaluate disability of rural and urban patients.
External Validation and Evaluation of Reliability and Validity of the S-ReSC Scoring System to Predict Stone-Free Status after Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy  [PDF]
Min Soo Choo, Chang Wook Jeong, Jae Hyun Jung, Seung Bae Lee, Hyeon Jeong, Hwancheol Son, Hyeon Hoe Kim, Seung-june Oh, Sung Yong Cho
PLOS ONE , 2014, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0083628
Abstract: Objectives The Seoul National University Renal Stone Complexity (S-ReSC) scoring system was developed to predict the stone-free rate (SFR) after single-tract percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). This study is an external validation of this scoring system. Materials and methods A retrospective review included 327 patients who underwent PCNL at 2 tertiary referral centers. The S-ReSC score was assigned from 1 to 9 based on the number of sites involved. The stone free status was defined as either complete clearance or clinically insignificant residual fragments <4 mm in size at 1 month follow-up imaging. Inter-observer and test-retest reliabilities were evaluated. The statistical performance of the prediction model was assessed by its predictive accuracy, predictive probability, and clinical usefulness. Results The overall SFR was 65.4%. SFRs were 83.9%, 47.6%, and 21.4% in low (1–2), intermediate (3–4), and high (5–9) score groups, respectively, with significant differences (P<0.001). Inter-observer and test-retest reliabilities revealed almost perfect agreements. External validation of the S-ReSC scoring system revealed an AUC of 0.731 (95% CI 0.675–0.788). The AUC of 3-titered S-ReSC score groups was 0.691 (95% CI, 0.629–0.753). The calibration plot showed that the predicted probability of SFR had a concordance comparable to that of the observed frequency. The Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic revealed an adequate performance of the predictive model (P = 0.10). Inter-observer and test-retest reliability showed a good level of agreement. Conclusions The S-ReSC scoring system is useful in predicting the post-PCNL SFR and in describing the complexity of renal stones.
Risk scoring systems for adults admitted to the emergency department: a systematic review
Mikkel Brabrand, Lars Folkestad, Nicola Clausen, Torben Knudsen, Jesper Hallas
Scandinavian Journal of Trauma, Resuscitation and Emergency Medicine , 2010, DOI: 10.1186/1757-7241-18-8
Abstract: Even though most scoring systems are not meant to be used on an individual level, they can support the more inexperienced doctors and nurses in assessing the risk of deterioration of their patients.We therefore performed a systematic review on the level of evidence of literature on scoring systems developed or validated in the MAU. We hypothesized that existing scoring systems would have a low level of evidence and only few systems would have been externally validated.We conducted a systematic search using Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library, according to the PRISMA guidelines, on scoring systems developed to assess medical patients at admission.The primary endpoints were in-hospital mortality or transfer to the intensive care unit. Studies derived for only a single or few diagnoses were excluded.The ability to identify patients at risk (discriminatory power) and agreement between observed and predicted outcome (calibration) along with the method of derivation and validation (application on a new cohort) were extracted.We identified 1,655 articles. Thirty were selected for further review and 10 were included in this review.Eight systems used vital signs as variables and two relied mostly on blood tests.Nine systems were derived using regression analysis and eight included patients admitted to a MAU. Six systems used in-hospital mortality as their primary endpoint.Discriminatory power was specified for eight of the scoring systems and was acceptable or better in five of these. The calibration was only specified for four scoring systems. In none of the studies impact analysis or inter-observer reliability were analyzed.None of the systems reached the highest level of evidence.None of the 10 scoring systems presented in this article are perfect and all have their weaknesses. More research is needed before the use of scoring systems can be fully implemented to the risk assessment of acutely admitted medical patients.Patients referred to a medical admission unit (MA
Measuring self-concept of one’s own ability with experiment-based behaviour assessment: towards the construct validity of three scoring variants  [PDF]
Martina Frebort,Michaela M. Wagner-Menghin
Psychological Test and Assessment Modeling , 2011,
Abstract: Self-concept of one’s ability is an important construct influencing academic performance (Elliot & Dweck, 2005). The present study deals with the self-concept of one’s domain-specific prior knowledge in Psychology. Here, it is measured indirectly through WITE-Psychology (Frebort, unpublished), a knowledge test that measures Psychology student applicants’ Psychology knowledge. To measure self-concept of one’s domain-specific prior knowledge in Psychology, Wagner-Menghin’s (2004) scoring variant was used. However, this scoring variant entailed certain problems such as disadvantaging able testees under some testing conditions and reducing to the overestimation aspect while neglecting underestimation. The present study suggests two new scoring variants (“alternative tendency” score; “sense of reality” score) that overcome the one or the other problematic aspect, respectively. For the original scoring variant (“tendency” score), as well as for the two new scoring variants, unidimensionality is proven through the conditional Likelihood-Ratio test (Andersen, 1973) and graphical model checks. Furthermore, with the correlation coefficient indicating the relationship of each of the three scores to Psychology knowledge, another aspect of construct validity is tested.Results indicate that for one of the two new scoring variants (“sense of reality” score), items do not cover the latent continuum well; the other new scoring variant (“alternative tendency” score) is one-dimensional and shows the expected independency of Psychology knowledge. For this reason, it is suggested as a promising alternative to the original scoring variant under certain testing conditions.
Achondroplasia Day 2012 in Johannesburg
S Moosa
South African Journal of Child Health , 2012,
Abstract: The Division of Human Genetics (National Health Laboratory Service and University of the Witwatersrand) recently hosted the second annual Achondroplasia Day in Johannesburg. Participation in the meeting increased from 4 families in 2011 to 17 families in 2012. The main aim of the meeting was to bring individuals with achondroplasia and their families together and to facilitate improved interaction between families and the healthcare professionals involved in their care. This short report briefly describes the events of the day, and the immense benefit such activities have for families with rare genetic conditions. Additionally, we provide an overview of the basic genetics of achondroplasia and specific health needs of affected individuals. It is hoped that other centres around South Africa will be inspired to organise similar events in their respective areas to benefit their patients.
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