All Title Author
Keywords Abstract

电网技术  2015 

考虑人为因素的设备可靠度评估及定检周期决策

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2015.09.026, PP. 2546-2552

Keywords: 比例故障模型,设备可靠度评估,人为因素,定检周期决策

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

人为因素对设备可靠度评估和定检周期修决策有重要影响,但目前的研究往往忽略了人为因素的影响,为此,提出了一种基于比例故障模型的设备可靠度评估改进方法一方面,不对设备状态转移作任何简化,即认为设备状态转移可能发生在任何时刻,而不仅仅是状态监测点;另一方面,利用广义帕累托分布表征人为因素对设备可靠度评估的影响。在此改进方法基础上,完善了设备定期检修模型,考虑了由人为失误造成的不完美检修情况。算例分析表明人为失误、检修故障比例、检修时间、故障修复时间等因素对设备检修可用率的影响;在定期检修中充分考虑人为因素等情况可以提高设备可用率。

References

[1]  李文沅.电力系统风险评估—模型、方法和应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2006:195-210.
[2]  许婧,王晶,高峰,等.电力设备状态检修技术研究综述[J].电网技术,2000,24(8):48-52.Xu Jing,Wang Jing,Gao Feng,et a1.A survey of condition based maintenance technology for electric power equipment[J].Power System Technology,2000,24(8):48-52(in Chinese).
[3]  丁坚勇,邓瑞鹏,李江.发电设备的检修策略及可靠性管理研究[J].电网技术,2002,26(3):72-75.Ding Jianyong,Deng Ruipeng,Li Jiang.Research on overhaul strategy of generating equipments and its reliability management[J].Power System Technology,2002,26(3):72-75(in Chinese).
[4]  张黎,张波.电气设备故障率参数的一种最优估计算法[J].继电器,2005,33(17):31-34.Zhang Li,Zhang Bo.An algorithm for optimal parameter estimation of the failure rate of electrical equipment[J].Relay,2005,33(17):31-34(in Chinese).
[5]  任震,万官泉,黄金风,等.电力系统可靠性原始参数的改进预测[J].电力系统自动化,2003,27(4):37-40.Ren Zhen,Wan Guanquan,Huang Jinfeng,et a1.Prediction of original reliability parameter of power systems by an improved grey model[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2003,27(4):37-40(in Chinese).
[6]  Ghasemi A,Yacout S,Ouali M S.Evaluating the reliability function and the mean residual life for equipment with unobservable states[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2010,59(1):45-54.
[7]  Ghasemi A,Yacout S,Ouali M S.Optimal inspection period and replacement policy for CBM with imperfect information using PHM[J].World Congress on Engineering and Computer Science,2008,1007(1):247-266.
[8]  鹿鸣明,王逸飞,郭创新,等.一种基于PHM考虑老化和设备状态的油浸式变压器故障率模型[J].电力系统保护与控制,2014,42(18):66-71.Lu Mingming,Wang Yifei,Guo Chuangxin,et a1.Failure rate model for oil-immersed transformer based on PHM concerning aging process and equipment inspection information[J].Power System Protection and Control,2014,42(18):66-71(in Chinese).
[9]  王一,何奔腾,王慧芳.基于全寿命状态的设备可靠性研究[J].电网技术,2011,35(8):207-211.Wang Yi,He Benteng,Wang Huifang.Research on equipment reliability based on life cycle states[J].Power System Technology,2011,35(8):207-211(in Chinese).
[10]  Flage R.A delay time model with imperfect and failure-inducing inspections[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2014,124(4):1-12.
[11]  Nakagawa T.Optimum policies when preventive maintenance is imperfect[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,1979,28(4):331-332.
[12]  Koval D O,Floyd H L.Human element factors affecting reliability and safety[J].IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications,1998,34(2):406-414.
[13]  Dhillon B S,Liu Y.Human error in maintenance:a review[J].Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering,2006,12(1):21-36.
[14]  Christer A H.Incorporating the potential for human error in maintenance models[J].Journal of the Operational Research Society,2003,54(12):1249-1253.
[15]  Asadzadeh S M,Azadeh A.An integrated systemic model for optimization of condition-based maintenance with human error[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2014,124(4):117-131.
[16]  Wang Y F,Bao Y K,Zhang H,et al.Evaluating equipment reliability function and mean residual life based on proportional hazard model and semi—Markov process[C]//International Conference on Power System Technology (POWERCON2014).Chengdu,China:IEEE,2014:1293-1299.
[17]  曹晋华,程侃.可靠性数学引论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2012:7-11.
[18]  Cox D R.Regression models and life—tables.Breakthroughs in Statistics[M].New York:Springer,1992:527-541.
[19]  Banjevic D,Jardine A K S.Calculation of reliability function and remaining useful life for a Markov failure time process[J].IMA Journal of Management Mathematics,2006,17(2):115-130.
[20]  Groth K M,Mosleh A.A data-informed PIF hierarchy for model-based human reliability analysis[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2012,108:154-174.
[21]  李鹏程.核电厂数字化控制系统中人因失误与可靠性研究[D].广州:华南理工大学,2011.
[22]  Hannaman G W,Spurgin A,J,Lukic Y.Human cognitive reliability model for PRA analysis (NUS-531)[R].Palo Alto:Electric Power Research Institute,1984.
[23]  王洪德,高玮.基于人的认知可靠性(HCR)模型的人因操作失误研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2006,16(7):51-56.Wang Hongde,Gao Wei.Study on erroneous operation due to human factor based on human cognitive (HCR) model[J].China Safety Science Journal,2006,16(7):51-56(in Chinese).

Full-Text

comments powered by Disqus