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陕西暖季雷暴的主模态及其可能的影响机制

DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2013.09.1025, PP. 1025-1035

Keywords: 雷暴,主模态,西太平洋副热带高压,极涡

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Abstract:

利用1960—2010年陕西76个台站雷暴、闪电观测数据和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,基于EOF、小波等方法分析陕西暖季(5~9月)雷暴的主模态及可能的影响机制。主要结论如下①近51年陕西雷暴日数总体呈下降趋势,月际上雷暴日数7月达到峰值,暖季雷暴日数占全年的70%以上;②雷暴日数空间型主要表现为东西向的反位相振荡(EOF1)与陕北、关中南部负异常及延安地区、陕西南部正异常(EOF2),分别解释了总方差的53.1%和13.6%;③Morlet小波分析显示EOF1,EOF2分别存在3~6年和15年左右的年代际变化周期;④EOF1空间模态的时间系数回归显示暖季大陆上气压减弱,西太平洋副热带高压584线位于30°N附近,西南暖湿气流向北输送增强,陕西西部雷暴增多;EOF2时间系数回归表明当北半球极涡偏弱,蒙古国附近气压偏强,导致北风分量增强,有利于EOF2空间型分布;⑤西太平洋副热带高压位置、强度是影响EOF1的重要因子,同样,北半球极涡可能对陕西雷暴空间模态EOF2有显著影响。

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