Extreme rainfall events can be considered a natural manifestation of the environment in which they are embedded and foreknowledge about their future behavior is very important, especially for decision makers. In this context, we aimed to explore the future behavior of extreme rainfall intensity through numerical simulations with the ETA model. The model was forced with a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions for the middle of the 21st Century as described for A1B emission scenario. We detailed the main changes in accumulated rainfall produced by heavy events, very heavy events and rare events over a broad area of South America with a focus on the tropical sector. The methodology applied here is capable of separating extreme events and establishing the quantity of rainfall yielded by them. We have found that in the near future (2041-2050) rare events will tend to increase over the Amazon basin, followed by reductions in heavy and very heavy events. Conversely, heavy, very heavy and rare events are expected to decline over north-east Brazil. Furthermore, increases were found for heavy, very heavy and rare events over southern Brazil.
Trenberth, K.E., Dai, A., Rasmussen, R.M. and Parsons, D.B. (2003) The Changing Character of Precipitation. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 84, 1205-1217. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1205
Meehl, A.G., et al. (2000) Trends in Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Issues Related to Modeling Extremes in Projections of Future Climate Change. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81, 427-436. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0427:TIEWAC>2.3.CO;2
Semenov, V.A. and Bengtsson, L. (2002) Secular Trends in Daily Precipitation Characteristics: Greenhouse Gas Simulation with a Coupled AOGCM. Climate Dynamic, 19, 123-140. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-001-0218-4
Valipour, M., Ahmadi, M.Z., Raeini-Sarjaz, M., Sefidkouhi, M.A.G., Shahnazari, A., Fazlola, R. and Darzi-Naftchali, A. (2014) Agricultural Water Management in the World during Past Half Century. Archives of Agronomy and Soil Science. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03650340.2014.944903
Marengo, J.A., Borma, L.S., Rodriguez, D.A., Pinho, P., Soares, W.R. and Alves, L.M. (2013) Recent Extremes of Drought and Flooding in Amazonia: Vulnerabilities and Human Adaptation. American Journal of Climate Change, 2, 87-96. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2013.22009
Marengo, J.A., Javier, T., Alves, L.M., Soares, W.R. and Rodriguez, D.A. (2011) The Drought of 2010 in the Context of Historical Droughts in the Amazon Region. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L12703. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047436
Espinoza, J.C., Ronchail, J., Frappart, F., Lavado, W., Santini, W. and Guyot, J.L. (2012) The Major Floods in the Amazonas River and Tributaries (Western Amazon Basin) during the 1970-2012 Period: A Focus on the 2012 Flood. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 14, 1000-1008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-0100.1
Satyamurty, P., da Costa, C.P., Manzi, A.O. and Candido, L.A. (2013) A Quick Look at the 2012 Record Flood in the Amazon Basin. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 1396-1401. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/grl.50245
Fearnside, P.M. (2014) Impacts of Brazil’s Madeira River Dams: Unlearned Lessons for Hydroelectric Development in Amazonia. Environmental Science and Policy, 38, 164-172. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2013.11.004
Satyamurty, P., de Castro, A.A., Tota, J., da Silva Gularte, L.E. and Manzi, A.O. (2010) Rainfall Trends in the Brazilian Amazon Basin in the Past Eight Decades. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 99, 139-148. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0133-x
Correia, F.W.S., Alvalá, R.C.S. and Manzi, A.O. (2007) Modeling the Impacts of Land Cover Change in Amazônia: A Regional Climate Model (RCM) Simulation Study. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 93, 225-244.
Sud, Y.C., Chao, W. and Walker, G. (1993) Dependence of Rainfall on Vegetation: Theoretical Considerations, Simulation Experiments, Observations, and Inferences from Simulated Atmospheric Soundings. Journal of Arid Environments, 25, 5-18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/jare.1993.1038
Chen, T.C., Takle, J.H. and Yoon, K.J. (2003) Impacts on South America Rainfall Due to Changes in Global Circulation. Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, American Meteorological Society, Boston, 92-93.
Marengo, J.A., Nobre, C.A., Chou, S.C., et al. (2011) Riscos das Mudanças Climáticas no Brasil. Análise Conjunta Brasil-Reino Unido Sobre os Impactos das Mudanças Climáticas e do Desmatamento na Amazônia, 2-56.
Carvalho, L.M., Jones, C. and Liebmann, B. (2003) The South Atlantic Convergence Zone: Intensity, Form, Persistence, and Relationships with Intraseasonal to Interannual Activity and Extreme Rainfall. Journal of Climate, 17, 88-108. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0088:TSACZI>2.0.CO;2
Gordon, C., Cooper, C., Senior, C.A., Banks, H., Gregory, J.M., Johns, T.C., Mitchell, J.F.B. and Wood, R.A. (2000) The Simulation of SST, Sea Ice Extents and Ocean Heat Transports in a Version of the Hadley Centre Coupled Model without Flux Adjustments. Journal of Climate, 16, 147-168.
Pope, V.D., Gallani, M.L., Rowntree, P.R. and Stratton, R.A. (2000) The Impact of the New Physical Parametrizations in the Hadley Centre Climate Model: HadAM3. Climate Dynamics, 16, 123-146. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003820050009
Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., et al. (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, 599 p.
Janjié, Z. (1994) The Step-Mountain Eta Coordinate Model: Further Developments of the Convection, Viscous Sublayer, and Turbulance Closure Schemes. Monthly Weather Review, 122, 927-945. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0927:TSMECM>2.0.CO;2
Zhao, Q., Black, T.L. and Baldwin, M.E. (1997) Implementation of the Cloud Prediction Scheme in the Eta Model at NCEP. Weather and Forecasting, 12, 697-712. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0697:IOTCPS>2.0.CO;2
Chen, F., Janjié, Z. and Mitchell, K. (1997) Impact of Atmospheric Surface-Layer Parameterizations in the New Land-Surface Scheme of the NCEP Mesoscale Eta Model. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 85, 391-421. http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1000531001463
Ek, M.B., Mitchell, K.E., Lin, Y., Rogers, E., Grunmann, P., Koren, V., Gayno, G. and Tarpley, J.D. (2003) Implementation of NOAH Land Surface Advances in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Operational Mesoscale Eta Model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108, 8851.
Sestini, M.F., dos Santos Alvalá, R.C.D., Mello, E.L.K., de Morisson Valeriano, D., Chan, C.S., Nobre, C.A., et al. (2002) Elaboração de mapas de vegetação para utilização em modelos meteorológicos e hidrológicos. INPE, São José dos Campos, 64 p.
Lacis, A.A. and Hansen, J. (1974) A Parameterization of the Absorption of Solar Radiation in Earth’s Atmosphere. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 31, 118-133. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1974)031<0118:APFTAO>2.0.CO;2
Fels, S.B. and Schwarzkopf, M.D. (1975) The Simplified Exchange Approximation: A New Method for Radiative Transfer Calculations. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 32, 1475-1488. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1975)032<1475:TSEAAN>2.0.CO;2
Frich, P., Alexander, L.V., Della-Marta, P., Gleason, B., Haylock, M., Klein Tank, A.M.G. and Peterson, T. (2002) Observed Coherent Changes in Climatic Extremes during the Second Half of the Twentieth Century. Climate Research, 19, 193-212. http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr019193
Gao, X., Pal, J.S. and Giorgi, F. (2006) Projected Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation over the Mediterranean Region from a High Resolution Double Nested RCM Simulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L03706. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024954