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Survival analysis of patients under chronic HIV-care and antiretroviral treatment at Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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Background: Health care planning depends upon good knowledge of prevalence that requires a clear understanding of survival patterns of patients who receive medication, treatment and care. Survival analysis can bring to light the effect that some demographic, social, medical and clinical characteristics have on the mortality rate of HIV-patients. Objectives: The objective of this research undertaking was to estimate mortality rate and identify predictors that have significant impact on the survival status of a sample of patients who received antiretroviral treatment and care in Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methods: The data for this research were collected during the follow-up time from 2005 to 2008. Out of a population of HIV-patients who were taking antiretroviral therapy in the hospital in that period, data on 1,000 patients were used for this study. The study subjects were people in the age range from 15 to 75 years. The Kaplan-Meier Method was employed to estimate mortality; the Cox Proportional Hazards Regression Method was used to identify determinants of mortality. Results: After initiation of the antiretroviral treatment, HIV-positive patients lived for an average of 5.65 years (CI: 3.69-7.61 years); the median survival age was found to be 3.98 years (CI: 2.98-4.97 years). The number of medications, baseline functional status, CD4 count, antiretroviral treatment, age, gender and weight impact the survival experience of the patients. Conclusions: Antiretroviral therapy treatment reduced death among AIDS patients by 50 percent. Providing treatment at health facilities outside big towns and in the country should be given due attention. Similar studies in the future need to consider predictors in addition to those considered in this study. [Ethiop. J. Health Dev. 2012;26(1):22-29]

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